Like the EU countries, Turkey has also found itself excluded from efforts to find lasting peace in Ukraine. And Ankara has something to offer, believes Turkish President Erdogan. How can it help?
In recent days, there has been a high level of diplomatic activity in search of a solution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Turkey is not at the negotiating table between the United States and Russia, but President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would like to continue to play an important role in the discussions and participate in the new security architecture.
During the war, Turkey constantly tried to keep diplomatic channels open with both sides, while maintaining good relations with both Moscow and Kiev. Now Erdogan wants to continue this policy.
During Volodymyr Zelensky's recent visit to Ankara, the Turkish president raised this issue again. He stated that Turkey would provide all support for the sake of concluding the negotiation process with a lasting peace. Erdogan also described his country as the “ideal host for possible negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the US“. It was emphasized that Turkey is a “reliable mediator“ for both sides. But the acceptance of this proposal is anything but certain.
Turkey suddenly found itself on the outside
Political scientist Helin Sari Ertem points out that as an ambitious regional power, Turkey has long had the ambition to take on a mediating role in the conflict. But recently, Turkish efforts in this regard have stalled. “Since the US-Russian summit in Riyadh, Turkey feels left out – as do the EU countries. This should be emphasized. “ Ankara is investing heavily in its mediation role. “But will it continue to play this role in the future? It is possible that the US wants it“, says Ertem. In that case, Turkey would be ready to take on this role.
Turkey has been playing a constructive role since the creation of the so-called “grain corridor“ in the Black Sea. Former Turkish ambassador to NATO Fatih Ceylan recalls that Turkey made efforts to mediate in the first months of the war. But Turkey's exclusion from Europe has put all of Ukraine's European partners in a difficult position - as well as Turkey itself. “As long as it is not clear what plan will be proposed, there cannot be any valid agreement to support it. This is an illusion.“
Furthermore, according to Ceylan, the current breakdown between the US and Europe in the areas of security, economy and trade also affects Turkey. “If anyone thinks that they can stay out of the situation, that is also an illusion.“ The decline of European economies in such a conflict will also have a negative impact on Ankara's trade balance. “This will directly affect Turkey.“
Will Turkey be included in the security guarantees for Ukraine?
At his press conference with Erdogan, Zelensky stressed the importance of comprehensive guarantees for Ukraine's security. He said: “If not NATO, who will be able to guarantee our security?“. We also discussed with President Erdogan the possible security guarantees from strong countries with strong armies, including Turkey“.
However, Fatih Ceylan believes that there are still many open questions. “It is not enough to say – I will send troops! This should be resolved either in multilateral negotiations involving both Turkey and Europe, or the UN Security Council should take up the issue. This means that the bilateral negotiations between the US and Russia must first be transferred to a multilateral framework.“ Then Turkey can also play an important role, says Ceylan.
Helin Sari Ertem also believes that, like other European countries, Turkey could be “forced” to participate in the military guarantee of peace in eastern Ukraine. And Ankara is probably much more ready for this than many EU countries.
What is the significance of the Black Sea and the Montreux Convention?
Erdogan believes that a new regulation on the safety of shipping in the Black Sea before the negotiations could be an important element for the peace process. Fatih Celayn points out that if, after the peace talks, Russia retains the occupied areas of Ukraine, the importance of the Black Sea will acquire a new component. In this case, the security of shipping in the Black Sea will have to be reconsidered. And it may be inevitable that Turkey will be among the countries that could provide security guarantees.
If there is talk of a rapid peace process in the future, the security of the Black Sea, especially for the passage of merchant ships, will become even more significant. Political scientist Ertem recalls that during the war in the Black Sea, mines were placed near the coasts of Ukraine and Russia - a threat to merchant ships important to Turkey. An agreement was concluded between Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey to remove these mines. “From the US-Russian negotiations in Riyadh, we see that the main agenda is to guarantee peace inside Ukraine. But this should not be perceived only as guaranteeing peace in the Ukrainian regions - peace in the Black Sea should also be guaranteed. I think this is the emphasis that Turkey wants to place“, the Turkish political scientist also points out.