China has recently secured the support of 70 countries in the world for tougher action against Taiwan. Taipei is increasingly helpless in the face of Beijing's annexation ambitions, writes DW observer Alexander Görlach.
While the recent presidential elections in the US, Russia's war against Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza have attracted world attention, China is taking advantage of this to obtain the approval of 70 countries for possible military action against Taiwan. The People's Republic needs such support, because if it attacks the democratic island state, Taipei's allies will certainly submit a resolution to the UN condemning this violence. And if Beijing cannot count on like-minded people, the resolution in question can be pushed through more easily.
70 countries in support of China
According to the British magazine “The Economist“, over the past 18 months, the aforementioned 70 countries have adopted Beijing's formulation in official communiqués or statements, according to which the People's Republic has the right to use “all means“ to “unify“ Taiwan with China. This explicitly includes military means.
Currently, the official position of the United States and its allies on this conflict is that neither side in it can change the current status quo by force. Nevertheless, Chinese autocrat Xi Jinping made the annexation of Taiwan a primary goal of his government shortly after taking office in 2013 and has recently increasingly confirmed this - in words and deeds. For example, every day Chinese fighter jets fly over the island, and the Chinese coast guard does not stop provoking Taiwan's and threatens to block the island completely.
The 70 countries in question are Asia, Europe, Africa, Oceania and Latin America. The vast majority (97%) are part of the so-called Global South, including South Africa, Egypt and Pakistan. In many of these countries, China has secured access to key natural resources and has financed ports and other transport projects through its infrastructure program “One Belt, One Road“. Therefore, Beijing has enough leverage to force these countries to comply with it.
Taiwan - increasingly isolated
After Beijing's diplomatic offensive, a total of 89 of the countries represented at the UN now seem to agree that China can use “all means“ against Taiwan. A total of 119 countries (62% of all UN member states) generally accept Beijing's territorial claims to Taiwan, without necessarily sharing Beijing's bellicose rhetoric. Taipei's hopes that the island state could be admitted to the UN are fading. Only 12 countries in the UN General Assembly now recognize Taiwan's independence through official diplomatic channels.
Taiwan's successful isolation shows that Xi Jinping has learned from Putin's mistakes in the attack on Ukraine. The Kremlin dictator did not expect the West to be united in condemning his attack on Ukraine. Now, with the support of a majority of countries in the UN, Xi can expect that a condemnatory resolution will not be adopted and that international sanctions will not be imposed on China.
Taiwan is helpless in the face of China's superiority
This is not good news for Taiwan. The island nation, which has been tirelessly fighting for its right to exist, is helpless in the face of Beijing's dominance. The People's Republic, which has supported the Palestinian struggle for a state for decades, does not want any interference in its sphere of influence when it comes to that same right to exist, but Taiwan.
It is very sad that countries of the global South, which in the past were subjected to merciless colonization, now have no problem with 24 million Taiwanese suffering the same fate as their suffering ancestors. But this is real policy for these countries, which have replaced dependence on Western empires with a new dependence - this time on China.
*Alexander Görlach is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Council on Ethics in International Affairs and a professor of democratic theory at the Gallatin School of New York University.