Rebels make gains in Myanmar civil war

On April 11 this year, the Karen National Liberation Army (the armed wing of the Karen National Union – ed.) seized control over the town of Myawaddy by the junta that has ruled Myanmar since the February 1, 2020 coup that ousted the government of Aung San Suu Kyi. This was recalled by the Center for Strategic and International Studies - a non-profit organization that conducts political studies and strategic analyzes of political, economic and security issues, quoted by BTA.

In doing so, the Karen National Liberation Army wrested from junta control one of the most key trade corridors with Thailand. Trade with the wealthy neighbor became increasingly difficult as the junta lost control of more and more border crossings.

Realizing Myawadi's importance to the economy, the junta was forced to launch a massive offensive to retake the city. The conflict in the city, located across the river from the Thai city of Mae Sot, caused alarm in the neighboring country, prompting Prime Minister Sreeta Thavisin to visit the city on April 22.

On April 24, less than two weeks after capturing the city, Karen National Liberation Army fighters withdrew from Myawaddy, avoiding an approaching junta counteroffensive.

The forces of the country's ruling military were not the only ones involved in the offensive – The Karen National Army, formerly known as the Border Guard, supported the junta troops in occupying the city.

The Karen National Army forces, led by Colonel Saw Chit Tu, are believed to earn $190 million a year from gambling and organized crime in the city, the “Bangkok Post” reported.

The colonel-led Karen National Army has long held sway in the region bordering Thailand's Tak province, which has become the scene of key fighting in recent weeks as resistance to the junta gathers strength.

His connections with the country's military leaders, evidenced by the honorary military rank he received in 2022, helped him strengthen his position. At the same time, the colonel is subject to sanctions by London for serious violations, such as human trafficking. According to analysts, he is also linked to fraud centers run by Chinese organized crime groups.

However, after the Karen National Union seized control of Myawaddy earlier this month, the Karen National Army, once fully loyal to the junta, backed down and said its (about 8,000) fighters would stop receiving salaries and food supplies from the armed forces. In January, the colonel had stated: “We do not want fighting between Karens”, recalled in the “Bangkok Post”.

For a time, the lack of logistical and tactical support from the Karen National Army hampered the junta's attempts to regain control of the key border town of about 200,000 people. But the success noted at the end of the month was achieved again with the help of the colonel, according to a spokesperson of the Karen National Army.

According to other sources in the Thailand-based publication, the colonel changed his position after Myanmar's army leaders advised him that it was in his best interest to avoid seeing the businesses he owns targeted by airstrikes.

The Karen National Army split from the Karen National Liberation Army around 2010, siding with the Myanmar Army against opponents of the junta, including the Karen National Liberation Army. In 2017, the colonel took part in the construction of the Special Economic Zone along the border between Thailand and Myanmar. The project has become a hub for cross-border crime and gambling backed by Chinese organized crime groups, bringing the Karen National Army $190 million a year, according to analysts. Frauds and gambling are organized from there, which is illegal in China, adds the Thai newspaper.

Where is the rebellion against the junta going?

It is often commented that the revolution in Myanmar lacks a unified high command and, therefore, a grand strategy. But centralized command and control was never necessary because it was a rebellion of the population as a whole. New participating groups are emerging and old ones continue to help, but he has always followed the ideas of “collective leadership”, based on popular support, which have proven effective, said the Thailand-based newspaper of exiled Myanmar journalists the Irrawaddy. ;.

In support of this idea, it can be pointed out that the armed resistance started, continues, inflicted historic defeats on the army controlling the country and continues to gain momentum.

The rebellion in the country is supported by both the minorities and the representatives of the Bamar majority. The junta has lost control of much of the border, including key points with China and Thailand. Control over the most heavily fortified parts of the country, including Shan and Rakhine, has been lost. At the same time, resistance among the Bamars means that the junta must fight from the Chinese border to the Indian Ocean. Junta planes are shot down on a regular basis, military cooperation between various groups increases, and common political aspirations become more concrete.

The overall goal of the organically emerged resistance movement is to defeat the junta decisively and achieve a country free of military dictatorship and governed as a federal democracy. Ultimately, however, more formal ties and structures will be needed to bind the participants in the armed resistance, notes the “Irrawaddy”.

Divide et impera: The junta tries to divide the resistance

Since April 12, the junta has been burning the town of Buthidaun, in Rakhine State, to the ground, using Rohingyas forced to join the armed forces of Myanmar, the Irrawaddy reports. As a result, more than 1,000 homes out of a total of 1,480 households in the city were burned down. Most of its inhabitants have left it and fled to Bangladesh.

Local residents and Rohingya activists say the junta is purposefully using Rohingya conscripts (mobilized under a never-before-enforced law) to stoke ethnic conflict in the state, where it has been forced to cede territory to the Arakan Army rebel group.

The junta denies the allegations and says they are aimed at diminishing its respect. According to the armed forces, the Arakanese army is creating ethnic conflict in Buttidown.

In Rohingya camps, young men are recruited by the hundreds – in contrast to other parts of the country, where about 2-3 young people from a village are called under the flags, notes Radio "Free Asia".

At the same time, the Rohingya receive scant training and suffer many casualties and injuries. Their main role is as human shields according to the radio.

At the same time, young people rush to leave Myanmar, or get married on the fast track to avoid conscription. This only protects women, but under a 2010 (and never before enforced) law in Myanmar, both men aged 18 to 35 and women aged 18 to 27 are subject to conscription. For those with relevant educations of value, like medical or engineering, the upper limit goes up – 45 for men, 35 for women.

The term of military service can reach 5 years, given the declared martial law. Attempts to avoid military service can lead to imprisonment, also up to 5 years.

But for men, the marriage certificate is not salvation. They are forced to leave the country if they have the means to do so, join rebel armies or risk being sent to the front lines.

This plan has led to unintended consequences, as many, both men and women, choose to join the rebel forces, writes Britain's “Telegraph”.

“There is no way I would choose the Myanmar army – they kill civilians. "I want to be a revolutionary," declares 18-year-old Jenny (name changed at her request). “I wanted to have my own small business, but we lost our dreams a long time ago,”, she adds. Instead, it now plans to make combat drones that can “destroy army columns”.

Another 60,000 people are expected to be drafted. But according to another of the new members joining the rebels, the educated and the young, with political positions, are likely to be called upon.

They will then be researched to find out who can be trusted. Those the regime can't trust could be used as carriers and human shields, believes 30-year-old Joy.

The appeal of the rebel forces is helped by both their cause and the fact that they appear to be winning at the moment, notes the “Telegraph”.

Even leader Aung San Suu Kyi is being used as a human shield, according to her son Kim Aris, who lives in London. It was recently announced that she has been moved from her prison to house arrest, officially – to be protected from the heat wave, notes in. “Telegraph”.

However, her son stated in an interview with the "Independent" that the junta leadership used the arrested leader to protect himself from drone attacks.