The Russian army recently captured the town of Avdeyevka after months of fierce fighting – the worst since the Battle of Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces had to leave the city due to a critical shortage of ammunition. The Russian army is now moving further and further into Ukrainian territory.
Forbes reported that the village of Ocheretine in the Donetsk region, kilometers northwest of Avdeevka, is the point of a new Russian breakthrough. The situation is desperate for the exhausted Ukrainian brigades in the area. It has been announced that the Ukrainians will lose several villages around the Ocheretine axis.
The real risk, however, is that the Ukrainian Tavryan operational-strategic group — the command in charge of the forces west of Adveevka — will have no choice but to withdraw a few kilometers to the west and consolidate again along a new defensive line.
This retreat could hand tens of square kilometers of territory to Moscow and force hundreds of civilians to flee or resign themselves to living under brutal occupation. Worse still, if the Russians make further breakthroughs on the front, it could lead to a chain reaction.
The military command of Ukraine is currently debating how the front collapsed west of Avdeyevka. Some observers blamed the Ukrainian army's 115th Mechanized Brigade, which was recently rotated to Ocheretyne – and was immediately defeated by the 30th motorized rifle brigade of the Russian army. It is worth noting that all Ukrainian brigades are struggling to hold defensive positions under relentless bombardment. The aggressor has air and artillery superiority, delivering near-continuous strikes on Ukrainian positions.
Others pointed out that the 115th Mechanized Brigade is underequipped and, like all Ukrainian units, starved of ammunition as it awaits new supplies from the United States — supplies that have been delayed six months by Russia-friendly Republicans in the US Congress.
The imbalance of firepower can prove decisive as the battle continues. Congress eventually decided to provide tens of billions of dollars in military aid to Kiev, but it will take time for the shells to reach the hottest spots on the front.
Defense is easier than attack, even when the attacker has the advantage in firepower, so it is not guaranteed that the Russians will win the battle and force the Ukrainians to retreat. The Ukrainians are desperately trying to avoid a retreat.
Ukraine's ground forces have only about 100 combat brigades, and many of them are exhausted from months or years of continuous fighting. Heavy fighting took place in several places on the front, including around Chasov Yar. Billions of dollars worth of new weapons are on the way, but those weapons are worthless if there aren't enough deployed, trained, and well-rested soldiers to use them.