At current rates, it will take Russia centuries and tens of millions of casualties to overrun Ukraine, Forbes writes.
Russian forces managed to overrun just over 100 square kilometers of Ukraine in April. But it cost them 4,800 vehicles and more than 36,600 soldiers killed and wounded, according to an analyst who compiles data mostly from official Ukrainian sources, including the general staff in Kiev.
Ukrainian losses that month were “minimal”. Currently, 19% of Ukrainian territory is under Russian occupation. At current rates of advance and losses, the Russians would overrun the rest of Ukraine in 2256 at a cost of 101 million casualties. Russia’s current population is 144 million.
Incredibly, the staggering losses in men and equipment have not yet crippled the Russian effort in Ukraine. The Kremlin has equipped its forces with thousands of civilian vehicles, including scooters, cars, and even a bus. With many of the wounded eventually returning to the front lines, the Russian armed forces are recruiting more men each month than they are losing.
Putin is estimated to be mobilizing 30,000 troops each month. As a result, Russian forces in Ukraine are actually growing. They now number no fewer than 600,000 troops, the highest level during the war and almost double the number of forces that invaded in February 2022.
Russia’s defense budget will account for 40% of all government spending, its highest level since the Cold War, said General Christopher Cavoli, commander of U.S. forces in Europe. By comparison, the United States spends only 13% of its federal budget on military purposes.
To prolong wartime extravagance, Putin’s regime is not only prepared to increase the tax burden on Russians but is also changing its priorities for economic development. Losing much for gaining very little in Ukraine, and sustaining the costly effort at enormous expense, Russian authorities are walking an economic and political tightrope.
But the danger has not deterred Putin and his ministers and generals. According to Cavoli, Putin and his entourage are engaged in a long war – one that could extend beyond Ukraine.