If elected, the government "Zhelyazkov" it will have low legitimacy because it will be born with gimmicks. But there are several main reasons that require the cabinet to "go", albeit out of nowhere. Comment by Veselin Stoynev.
GERB is for the seventh time in political isolation and cannot form a governing majority. In the 50th National Assembly, the party can count on support only from DPS, which, however, is insufficient and undesirable as the only one. Boyko Borissov failed with his idea of forming an expert government with broad parliamentary support in an attempt to break out of isolation and was left with the only possible option of offering a minority cabinet. And he made an indirect invitation to his former partners from the PP–DB to get involved at any stage in this new administration, because “ministers change easily when you have a majority in the parliament”. Which, apart from an expression of despair, is also an acknowledgment that GERB have left the majority of the so-called assembly without being able to provide a new one.
The only possible move
The move to a minority government would have been stronger if it had been announced right after the election. Then Borisov would have looked more convincing that he was not looking for a fig leaf to cover up his dependence on DPS, and ITN would not have needed to run away from the role of a fig leaf and blackmail with the third mandate. Now the move with the minority cabinet is simply the only one left possible so that we don't go to elections again. For which the main fault will be GERB, because it will not be able to transfer it to another. And it will suffer punishment from the voters, as ITN suffered when it failed as the first mandate holder 3 years ago.
With the non-support for the first mandate declared by the parliamentary parties other than GERB and DPS, the government of Rosen Zhelyazkov can be elected in two ways: or by finding 7 necessary votes from various groups and from the independents (GERB and DPS have a total of 114 deputies), or the quorum should be reduced so that 114 are enough, and for this purpose an entire parliamentary group or individual deputies do not go in to vote. 121 people are needed to hold a session of the parliament, and to elect a government – more than half, i.e. theoretically, it could also be elected by 62 deputies, even if they are only from the GERB group.
Chosen with tricks, but downloadable only
Borisov stated that he does not want the cabinet to be elected “by some trick”, precisely in these two ways – with direct support from secessionists or indirectly through a reduced quorum. But that is precisely the genetics of a minority government – to get carte blanche from somewhere, by conscience vote or backroom deal. Without tricks, support is provided through clear coalition bargaining, which the GERB leader cannot provide.
So in communicating this reluctance to “tricks” he simply informed the audience that this is how the GERB minority government would be elected. And this “inconvenience” the party will correct with an announced short life of the cabinet, with the prime minister candidate himself specifying that this will be done by submitting a resignation or requesting a vote of confidence (the government of Philip Dimitrov fell in 1992 with a rejected vote of confidence).
Of low legitimacy by birth
Zhelyazkov added, however, that new early elections in the winter are not a good option, i.e. these may be available as early as spring. And considering one of the tasks of this cabinet – our entry into the Eurozone, its life could be extended until the middle of next year. Of course, the government can also be overthrown by a vote of no confidence, for which 121 votes are needed, but this requires the votes of all five parliamentary groups other than GERB and DPS.
If the government “Zhelyazkov“ if elected, it will start with low legitimacy not simply because it was born “with gimmicks”, but because those gimmicks may turn out to be downright cartoonish – with the support of “Majesty”, which is splitting, torn by internal scandals. This government will at the same time depend on floating parliamentary majorities for its legislative activity. However, it has no alternative, simply because Bulgarian politics has been brought to the point of choosing the lesser evil out of nowhere.
The cabinet “Zhelyazkov“ must pass
The cabinet “Zhelyazkov“ should be chosen for several main reasons. First, the country needs governability, which a caretaker government cannot provide. New elections will take us even further away from absorbing the money under the Recovery and Resilience Plan and from the Eurozone.
Secondly, the political crisis will not be resolved with new elections in the fall, but will only deepen. New elections will mean even lower voter turnout, a similar party deadlock in an even more illegitimate 51st parliament, or a stagger towards a radical change of the political system with the emergence of a new political entity on the field.
Thirdly, the parliamentary parties, especially GERB and PP-DB, may lose more supporters in quick elections. They need time to recharge, which is the natural way to overcome a political crisis. If it participates with bright political representatives in the cabinet, GERB can prove itself as a responsible political force and try to achieve successes to stop the erosion of support for itself in the next elections, whenever they are. The defeated PP-DB has a chance to prove itself as an opposition precisely to this distinct party government of GERB, as well as to structure its intra-coalition relations more clearly. The DPS is undergoing a rapid process of taking over from within by Delyan Peevski, which may lead to serious shake-ups in the party, which will also change the attitude of GERB and PP-DB towards the Movement.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial board and of DV as a whole.