Unthinkable scenario, but Ukraine could find itself blocked by Russia-friendly countries in the EU, including Bulgaria f

The unexpected victory of Calin Georgescu, an ultranationalist and admirer of Russia, in the first round of the presidential elections in Romania, created a previously unimaginable threat for Ukraine to be completely surrounded by pro-Russian countries, including Bulgaria after 2025, writes Foreign Policy.

Although the Constitutional Court annulled the results of the first round of the Romanian presidential election, the theoretical threat of victory for a pro-Russian candidate remains. If Georgescu is indeed in charge of Romania, the EU and NATO will form a powerful trio of countries (including Hungary and Slovakia) that will undermine the West's attempts to contain Russian imperialism.

Romania, Hungary and Slovakia lie on Ukraine's southwestern border and are therefore key to its strategic defense capacity. Ideally, these three countries would be led by politicians friendly to Ukraine. However, Slovakia has already reacted "passively aggressively” of Ukrainian calls for help in the face of Russian aggression, and Hungary as a whole acts as a "proxy power” for the Kremlin within the Western camp. Now there is a threat that Romania will join the camp of countries that are not friendly to Ukraine.

However, for both Ukraine and NATO, Romania is much more important than Slovakia and Hungary. Due to its geographical position, it became NATO's most advanced point on the south-eastern flank. It is home to a multinational battle group and several Atlantic Alliance bases, one of which is expected to be the largest in Europe.

In addition, Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly F-16 fighter jets on Romanian territory. Ukrainian marines also study in this country. Romania is a reliable route for the delivery of military equipment from Ukraine's Western allies. And she herself also betrayed a lot.

Romania also played a vital role in supporting Ukraine economically in the early months of the war. When Russia still maintained a sea blockade, a significant part of Ukrainian exports passed through Romania.

If Ukraine loses Romania as a partner, Poland will remain the only safe route for arms supplies.

"Romania is the core of security in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Logistically, Romania is crucial to the war effort and trade. It is one of the most pro-Ukrainian countries in the region. Any significant change in this situation will be a blow to Ukraine," says Vladimir Dubovik, an expert on international relations at the Odessa National University named after Mechnikov.

As Foreign Policy notes, at worst, Romania, along with Hungary and Slovakia, could become Putin's tool in a hybrid war against the EU. And this small group could increase in 2025 if pro-Russian forces win elections in the Czech Republic, Moldova and possibly Bulgaria.