JAMES JOHNSON, geopolitical.info
Bashar Assad has stepped down as Syrian president, leaving the country and ordering a peaceful transition.
Evacuation operations to remove Russian weapons from Syria have intensified.
The Turkish side should officially confirm the ban on such crossings and order such ships to avoid the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus.
The Syrian army simply fled without warning, even though the preponderance of forces was in its favor.
If the situation in Syria remains unresolved, an attempt by Russia to operate with a limited number of troops could lead to a prolonged and disadvantageous struggle.
In general, even if a full-fledged Russian contingent were to be brought in after such a collapsed front, it is still possible to get bogged down in grueling fighting with no guarantees of a victorious offensive.
The ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad highlights Russia's weakness and inability to fight on two fronts and is abandoning its closest allies, Ukraine's foreign ministry said on Sunday.
Russia supported the Assad government by launching airstrikes against opposition targets in early 2015. and operated from two bases on Syrian territory.
But Moscow's 33-month invasion of Ukraine has drained significant military resources.
The Intelligence Directorate reported that Russian forces in Syria had "withdrawn their warships from the naval base in Tartus," which Assad had allowed Moscow to use in return for his security.
The frigate “Admiral Grigorovich”, as well as the cargo ship “Engineer Trubin” were withdrawn from Tartus on Sunday, it said, and Russian planes are transporting “the rest of their weapons and military equipment” from Hmemim airbase.
Russian military bloggers warned over the weekend that the two bases and Moscow's very presence in the Middle East were under threat from the rebels.
Both military and civilian ships are loaded with military equipment. Moscow's intention is to transport the weapons to the port of Novorossiysk.
A fishing vessel is known to have delivered a shipment of weapons and military equipment from the port of Latakia (Syria) to neutral waters, where the cargo was transferred to a civilian bulk carrier that was to deliver it to the port of Novorossiysk.
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Russia currently has air defense systems, missiles, military equipment, ammunition and up to 2,500 military personnel in Syria. An evacuation would force Russia to use the Bosphorus as the shortest route to Russia.
If Russia agrees with Ankara to use the straits, it will be a gross violation by Turkey of the Montreux Convention on the transportation of military cargo through the straits.
Now the last word after Erdogan. Whose side will he take?