British intelligence: Russia will focus on maintaining control of its military bases in Syria

The Russian Federation believes that the overthrow of Assad - its key ally - would harm both its regional strategic interests and its "image as a security guarantor". This is stated in the daily bulletin of the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom, a summary of which was published on the social network X.

The report states that Moscow's prioritization of the war in Ukraine has likely reduced its ability and capacity to keep the Assad regime in power.

British intelligence notes that Russia's main goal in the Arab republic is to maintain control over its military bases - the largest overseas naval base in the port city of Tartrus and the air base in Hmeimim. This would provide Russian strategic assets with access to the Middle East and the Mediterranean, supporting its goals in Africa and allowing it to demonstrate military power.

The collapse of the Syrian president’s regime has almost certainly increased the security risk to these facilities, the intelligence agency added.

"In the short term, Moscow is likely to seek to restore its reputation as a reliable partner and engage diplomatically with all stakeholders involved in efforts to ensure the security of its military bases,“ the UK Ministry of Defence stressed.