Nightmare news for Ukraine: for the first time since the beginning of the war, it loses more military equipment than Rus

March 2025 was the worst month for Ukraine in the entire war, if you look at the ratio of Russian and Ukrainian losses of military equipment. This conclusion was made by American analyst and military observer Dmitry Alperovich in his blog on the X platform, UNIAN reports, focus-news.net writes.

Alperovich points out that according to data from the OSINT monitoring and analytical project, the ratio of Russian and Ukrainian losses in equipment during the war is beginning to show an imbalance. According to the analysis of the data, in March 2025, Ukrainian losses in equipment slightly exceeded Russian ones, which is the first time since the beginning of the entire war. The ratio is now approximately 1.1 to 1 in favor of Russia.

Czech OSINT analyst Jakub Janovsky, who is one of the leading volunteers of Oryx, and Ukrainian military analyst Tatarigami, founder of one of the most famous Ukrainian analytical groups Frontelligence Insight, did not refute Alperovich's data in any way in their channels, which means that they indirectly agreed with him.

According to Alperovich, each side lost about 400 units of military equipment, and Ukraine lost a little more in March.

The analyst noted that the ratio would be slightly better for Ukraine if only heavy weapons were taken into account. But even in this case, March will still be the second worst month of the entire war for Ukraine so far.

He suggests that the Russian offensive in the Kursk region and the forced retreat of Ukrainian troops played a role here in the huge losses of equipment.

Alperovich also explains the unfavorable ratio of losses for Ukraine by the fact that the Russian army is increasingly actively switching to the use of civilian equipment during assault operations. The consequence of this is an increase in the losses of manpower for the Russians, while the statistics of the losses of armored vehicles are decreasing.

“However, given the lack of heavy weapons in Ukraine and the uncertain future regarding the scale of future foreign military assistance, this is not a very good situation“, Alperovich summarizes.

Losses of military equipment on the front

The media recalls that earlier OSINT analysts calculated that the total losses of military equipment in the eight-month battle in the Kursk region were almost the same for both sides, but Russia still has a slight advantage.

Military observer David Axe noted on this occasion that Ukraine cannot afford to lose as much equipment as Russia is losing. To get closer to victory, the Ukrainian Armed Forces must destroy at least three times more equipment than they lose, Axe comments.

Meanwhile, analysts note that Russia has recently begun to lose less military equipment, although the intensity of the fighting has not decreased. Experts explain this by the fact that the Russians' technology is running out, so there is simply less "iron" that can be thrown into battle, at the expense of manpower.