GERB-SDS initiated talks about a cabinet, and Borisov said he was optimistic. However, half of the PP-DB coalition is participating in the negotiations - only "Democratic Bulgaria". Borisov's party also met with the BSP, and ITN is on hold. Are we moving towards forming a cabinet... Political scientist Svetlin Tachev speaks to FACTI.
- Mr. Tachev, 11 attempts were needed to elect the speaker of the parliament. How many attempts should we wait to form a cabinet…
- The situation is now a little different, because the election of the Speaker of the National Assembly was tied to taking into account the interests of a large part of the political formations in the National Assembly. The post of Speaker of the Parliament became a bet on two things - to renew Rumen Radev's "home book" and who positions himself in the vote. In this election, it happened that at a certain point the parties bet on who they would not vote with when electing the figure, and not so much who and what the figure is. This process was unblocked and the second stage has now begun - attempts at negotiations to form a majority and form a cabinet. I emphasize that this is only the beginning of the negotiation process. Whether an agreement on a government will be reached depends on completely different factors. GERB started the procedure as the first political force and did the most important thing from Borisov's point of view - to involve “Democratic Bulgaria“ in this process.
- And here let's just specify the issue a little. “Democratic Bulgaria“ is holding talks with GERB, and “We continue the change“ - not. What will this lead to…
- Actually, this is the main thing for GERB. For Borisov, it is important that the PP-DB coalition is part of a governing majority, because they are a legitimizing factor for him. More precisely, for Borisov, the most important are „Democratic Bulgaria“.
- Together or separately, when we talk about the PP-DB coalition…
- We see that at this stage separately, because „Democratic Bulgaria“ is participating in the talks, and „Continuing the Change“ is not. The important thing is how relations within the PP-DB will develop. On the one hand, for „Democratic Bulgaria“ it is good that it is participating in this process of talks. The question is whether the DB would participate in a cabinet, but without „Continuing the Change“... At some point, this could negatively affect „Democratic Bulgaria“, since „Continuing the Change“ could present themselves in their role as a staunch opposition. This would be in their interest. Moreover, we currently have the requested immunities for Kiril Petkov, and then for Lena Borislavova. This way, they will be defined as fighters against the status quo, against Boyko Borisov and Delyan Peevski. That is why the situation is complicated. There is another interpretation. With a good agreement between GERB and "Democratic Bulgaria", then "We Continue the Change" may find itself in a situation where it simply persists and is perceived as acting destructively. Their position presented to the public in this way may cause them damage. This is one factor in whether a government can be formed at all. So for Borisov, it is important for "Democratic Bulgaria" to participate. Without the BSP and ITN, it is difficult to form a cabinet, but they are rather auxiliary elements. The other is how everyone will understand each other later, because for now the talks are separate. The most important element for a possible government with the entire PP-DB coalition is whether Borisov is willing to sign the declaration for the “sanitary cordon“ and to stop the election of the Prosecutor General. This is the key. If Borisov is ready for such a concession, there is a high probability that the PP will also join the talks - why not in the possible future government. The talks have begun. So we will see what will come out. We must also say that the talks we are currently observing are more of a negotiating nature between the political forces. They are a tool for presenting their views, raising their stakes, and bargaining better, because it is clear that everyone will try to get the most out of the situation. And nothing may come of it in the end.
- Currently, the prosecutor's office is asking for immunities only for people associated with “Continuing the change“. How does that sound to you…
- "We continue the change" can extract dividends from the situation by declaring itself the irreconcilable opposition and thus receive reimbursement for part of the electoral damage it suffered from the "assembly". If the DB agrees to a government with GERB, but without the PP and without signing the declaration, this may lead to a transfer of votes to "We continue the change". This is because one part of the PP-DB is slightly more positively disposed towards GERB-SDF, while the other is not and remains irreconcilable. Here, I assume that Borisov will simply wait to see who will react and how, so that he can act too. It depends on him whether he will attract part of the coalition, or the entire PP-DB coalition.
- The National Council of the BSP agreed to negotiate with GERB. What is this position and what has changed for the socialists?
- Here we are already talking about a general change. The BSP and GERB-SDF were the main political opponents over the past decade. At the same time, the BSP has entered a period of historical decline, in which it is no longer the main opposition. That is, they are moving towards seeking to remove this barrier of intransigence towards GERB, because the situation is now completely different from the previous decade. The participation of the BSP in a possible government is more acceptable to them than new elections. No matter how much the socialists say that they are united, the damage to the left has been done and it would be difficult for them to restore their strength. So for them, the better option is to seek an opportunity to participate in some form of government, through which to show and emphasize that the BSP is no longer just an opposition, but a party that can also be constructive - especially in a political crisis. And in this way to save its image to some extent, if this government is successful.
- “Democracy, Rights and Freedoms“… With their votes, Assoc. Prof. Nataliya Kiselova became the Speaker of Parliament. Are they the better MRF at the moment…
- There is no better MRF. And what does a better party mean in principle. In this case, we are talking about a battle for the legacy of MRF. The authentic MRF no longer exists. Now we see the battle between two wings for the legacy of this party. On one side is Ahmed Dogan, who created Delyan Peevski, and the other wing, MRF-New Beginning, is the embodiment of Delyan Peevski himself. This battle between the two wings has gone through several stages and will most likely continue in different forms, but probably in the end everything will be resolved legally in court.