On April 22, the world celebrated the Day on earth, but the balance of climate change and its impact on the environment is bitter. Extreme weather events are increasing, the climate is changing and shaping new landscapes and ways of life (in the negative sense), with the global economy increasingly subject to these phenomena. For the most part, they affect key sectors such as agriculture, industry, trade on waterways.
Climate change will reduce future global incomes by about 19 percent over the next 25 years compared to an imaginary world in which there is no warming, with the poorest areas and the people least responsible for the climate crisis bearing the brunt. - the big financial blow.
This thesis is also confirmed by a new study published on April 17 in the journal "Nature" by researchers at the German Institute for Climate Change Research in Potsdam. The economic impact of climate change on individual incomes is already estimated to be around $38 trillion annually by 2049. By the year 2100, financial costs may double compared to estimates from previous studies.
The new document highlights that countries such as Germany (-11 percent), France (-13 percent), the United States (-11 percent) and Great Britain (- 7 percent) will lose a share of their gross domestic product ( indicated in parentheses) even by the middle of the century. The most affected will be the countries in the already hot regions, among which are Botswana (-25 percent), Mali (-25 percent), Iraq (-30 percent), Qatar (-31 percent), Pakistan (-26 per cent) and Brazil (-21 per cent).
"We foresee a severe decline in income in most regions, including North America and Europe, with South Africa and Asia most affected. These declines are due to the impact of climate change on various aspects related to economic growth such as agricultural yields, labor productivity and infrastructure. This was stated by the author of the study, Maximilian Kotz.
Noah Diefenbaugh, a professor and researcher at Stanford University, argues that climate change will exacerbate inequalities because it is clear that the financial impact will not be shared equally, leading to migration, poverty and conflict.
The US and Europe are at risk
Developed countries cannot think that they will be bypassed by what is happening, as the balance will be heavy for them as well, writes the Italian publication "Money".
In an article published in "Consumer Reports" (an American non-profit consumer organization - note ed.) by the consulting company ICF (ICF), states that personal losses from climate change over the lifetime of a child born in the US in 2024 could to reach $500,000. The paper also highlights that the prices of basic elements of the cost of living in the US will rise because of climate change.
Housing costs are expected to increase by $125,000 over the lifetime of a person born in 2024 due to higher maintenance and insurance costs due to the risks of flooding and other weather-related damage . In addition, food prices will rise by about $33,000 over the lifetime of a child born in 2024 due to disruptions in agricultural production and disruptions in supply chains, according to the document. Other costs such as electricity, transportation and health care are also expected to rise significantly in the coming years.
And Europe? According to a new scientific analysis, the EU experienced the warmest year on record in 2023, signaling an even more dangerous future for the world's already fastest-warming continent. Scientists from the EU Earth observation program "Copernicus" and the World Meteorological Organization specify in their annual report that, along with 2020, last year was the warmest on record in the Old Continent, with the record heat being caused by both climate change and the El Niño weather phenomenon.
The heat has also led to extreme weather events, including flooding, as the warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, causing heavy rain when released.
Flooding in Slovenia last year affected 1.5 million people. Greece fell victim to the biggest fire recorded in the EU: 960 square kilometers burned, twice the area of Athens. Alpine glaciers have lost 10 percent of their remaining volume in 2022 and 2023.
All this is already changing and plunging the labor and trade systems into crisis, with the warning for German navigable rivers still in effect. In Europe, there is already talk of a war for water and food. And this is also part of the bitter balance of climate change.