Prof. Vladimir Chukov, Arabist, in an interview for the Audiocast of "Focus” "This is Bulgaria“
Is it possible that Israel's reluctance to a truce stands against the danger that in a truce "Hamas“ will it survive?
You know, we are already entering the eighth month of the war between Israel and "Hamas", which started, if you remember, on the 7th of October. What we are observing is something unprecedented. Never before have there been such complex military actions, complex political actions, complex negotiations, the involvement of more and more intermediaries, if you will, and incredible resonance – remember when we talked about him a few months ago – outside the Gaza Strip, outside the Middle East region. He moved to Europe, to the USA. And what we are observing really cannot one day not enter the textbooks of international relations – what is done, how is it done. But you know, any crisis that has turned into a war will die down sooner or later.
The question is: in what form and how will this be done. I think we are in a phase of decline, which does not mean peace. Peace, unfortunately, has been eluding the Middle East for several decades now, and I think that those factors that want to achieve this goal are somewhat unrealistic. I'm talking about separate circles, mostly outside the region – I'm also talking about Europe. You know the position of the European Union, which is actually a position announced back in 1982 by François Mitterrand for the two countries. My personal opinion – this is the good position, this is the position that will institutionalize peace. The position of the American administration in the person of Biden is the same, of the Arab countries - also, but it doesn't work anyway.
At the moment we are at a decisive stage where there are negotiations that have been going on for I think about two months now, and they are very intense. There were those that were approved by one side, now we hear that they are approved by the other side, but the point is that what is on paper actually diverges between the two sides. I.e. they don't communicate directly, you know, there are three intermediaries. Qatar is very active, Egypt I think is very useful – he is the presenter, it is the mediator who suggests, who edits. And, in my opinion, the main intermediary, it is the USA, which not only offers, it has in its hands the most serious tools for putting pressure on both the Israeli government and the movement "Hamas” through the intermediary, let's say Egypt, or mostly through the intermediary Qatar, which precisely at the request of the USA in 2012 accepted the headquarters of the radical movement in Doha.
I.e. they have received them as guests. Ismail Haniya has been living there since 2012. This is the man behind the "Hamas" operation. against Israel, but basically at the head of the leadership before that was Khaled Mashal. So the Americans are the ones who found "the office” of the "Hamas“ movement to be under their gaze.
They found "the office", but they can't keep them tied up.
That's right, that's right. Here, one of the tools was the relocation of the "Hamas“ movement, for which at one point one of the leaders – Musa Abu Marzouk, who is the internationalist in the Hamas politburo, said: "Okay, we will leave Doha, but we will go to Amman, where they had 'offices'." until 1999 and where, by the way, a very strong pro-Palestinian fever was felt – demonstrations, anti-government slogans, anti-Israel slogans, anything in general that I don't think is a good step in terms of people who want to keep this movement away from the Palestinian territories. But anyway, there is a discrepancy at the moment. It mainly consists of six points – at least this is the position of Benjamin Netanyahu, of the government of Israel, that what they have offered to "Hamas” and to which they agreed, was not actually offered to Israel, ie. there is a discrepancy.
Let's put it this way: there are two main differences. One – whether the truce will be temporary or permanent. Some speak of a cease-fire, while others speak of a truce, i.e. another meaning is introduced. And secondly – what will happen to Gaza once the war stops one day: who will rule Gaza. These are the two fundamental questions that somehow remain hanging. And by putting, for example, some challenges with which apparently in the movement "Hamas“ are not aware, they do not have a unified leadership. On some of them is Yahya Sinwar, who is the leader of "Hamas” in Gaza, he is there somewhere in the tunnels and has the final word of approval: yes or no. And Ismail Hania, who walks either in Turkey or in Qatar. And here, literally three days ago, this movement fired rockets from Rafah in the direction of a checkpoint called Kerem Shalom, which killed four Israeli soldiers.
And that actually gave the Israeli government a pretext to start this operation in Gaza, which by the way – here's what we have to say, – it is not full-scale, it is not what was expected, but simply an echo or response to what "Hamas" did. And by the way, here I share the position of Saudi Arabia, the position of individual Egyptian experts, especially those who are security specialists, who explain: why, in fact, the Israeli government still decided to take this step, which is not that striking action on relation to the city of Rafah itself. You know, over 1 million Palestinians are sheltered there, it's the key for all aid from Egypt to enter the Gaza Strip, it's a key population in general.
If that happens, God forbid – i mean a full scale operation, it will really be a mass slaughter. In general, any such operation involves rivers of blood – something that nobody wants at this stage. And I think that common sense will prevail and some consensus point will still be reached between the two sides, who continue to negotiate under the pressure of those mediators we have already mentioned.
Let us still look at these two countries, first of all at "Hamas”. Who "injects“ "Hamas“, because in any case this group is highly stimulated?
When you say "who stimulates, who injects "Hamas", I assume you mean mostly financially. The finances of "Hamas” are clear. Let's recall - "Hamas“ staged a coup in 2007 when they effectively kicked out the representatives of the legitimate Palestinian representation – these are the representatives of Mahmut Abbas. Let me remind you about your listeners – in 2005 there were elections in Palestine, they were won by "Hamas” by three percent - 44 to 41%. A government of national unity was established, even Ismail Haniyeh was elected Speaker of the Palestinian National Assembly. And in 2007, they made a coup, expelled the representatives of the autonomy, especially of "Fatah". There were many ugly scenes, clashes, and since then they practically rule the Gaza Strip. Where does their money come from? First, they tax all those who live in the Gaza Strip. They have their parliament, they have their government, they have all their structures.
Secondly, they naturally have external aid. They receive part of the subsidies from Ramallah, from the legitimate, internationally recognized Palestinian Authority. You know that somewhere around 1 billion is the budget of the Palestinian Authority, with 80, even 90% of these subsidies coming from outside. Including, I have repeatedly mentioned – 50% come from us, from the Europeans. From the USA - separately, money from European countries, from Saudi Arabia, etc. are separate. From the total amount of these funds they make deductions from Ramallah. But what I think needs to be emphasized, and needs to be emphasized very seriously, is that with the knowledge of Tel Aviv, every month a Qatari plane was landing at the Gaza airport. This Qatari plane was carrying money in bags – dollars, green. And what the amount is, it's hard to say, but it's believed to average somewhere around $25 million a month – something you imagine, that is a very good amount.
Naturally, we must say that parallel to this there are also financial injections, but mostly military aid, logistics from the Islamic Republic – something that is not officially recognized, but it is clear, it is obvious. So these financial flows actually stimulate the movement "Hamas” and it actually existed from 2007 to 2024. If I have to say where do these people who are taxed by "Hamas" pay taxes from? – they employ several dozen, somewhere they say even 100,000 workers, working in Israel. Every day, the so-called "wrapper“ into Gaza through the many checkpoints, they go, work during the day and come back, and they get what I think is good, relatively good money for the standard that the people of Gaza have.
This was one of the reasons, or rather the reasons, that the Netanyahu government did not believe, did not consider that "Hamas” will do such a terrorist act as he did on October 7th. He says: "We feed them. They are unlikely to attack us”. I.e. they would hardly throw their wages into the air. But it turned out that it wasn't exactly like that, because obviously there is another structure, another way of thinking, other plans they had in this group. Let's say – according to estimates, the fighters of "Hamas” are somewhere around 30,000 people, well-trained militias, logistics, divided into battalions up in the northern part.
Now, at the moment it is believed that there are somewhere around three or four military groups left that are in Rafah, somewhere maybe up to 1/10, somewhere around 3-4 thousand left. While the members of "Hamas", already politically active, those who are engaged in power, with various civil activities, they are already several dozen. Some believe that it is about 300,000 people. I.e. you see that they are a very well-structured militia, which it seems to me could hardly be so quickly destroyed, killed.
Who structured them?
Themselves. They exist since 1987. Let's say, Hamas“ it has a very long history, as the Tel Aviv court was the one that first registered the "Hamas” foundation. This is HMS – it is an Islamic resistance movement. Sheikh Yasin – it is the blind sheikh who is the first, Mahmoud Zahar – his companion. And this is part of the strategy of the Israeli government to divide or rather to oppose some unit, some wing of the then very powerful movement of Yasser Arafat "Fatah", with "divide and rule".
But they created the conditions and turned out to be much more dangerous because they are Islamists. And what exactly they are is a matter of discussion, of definition, of positions, but they are also Islamists or religious nationalists – this is the other term that is very often tried to be launched for them in the expert space. Naturally, they consider themselves to be a national liberation movement. This is how they are considered, for example, in Russia, this is how China considers them, but in any case, let's leave the scientific reasoning for the moment. They are a terrorist movement since 1994 for the USA and since 2003 for the European Union. We have put them on the list of terrorist organizations and in my opinion there is no prospect of that being removed anytime soon.
If we also look at Israel in Netanyahu's cabinet, whose coalition partners are extreme nationalists, there is also hardly any prospect of a truce. I.e. and both sides have an absolutely clear idea of how these actions will proceed.
We can talk for a very long time about the two ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich – of national security and finance. They themselves have a party, even one called "Religious Zionism". They have 7 deputies in the parliament, they are a major part of the government and they have repeatedly emphasized that if they do not fulfill their positions and views, the government will fall. I.e. Netanyahu is a hostage to these extremists. I say this with a clear conscience, as they were among the followers of Rabbi Meir Kahane's movement. Meir Kahane is a person who created his own movement already in the USA and the USA banned him because they consider him racist and fascist. They are his followers.
So what they are talking about unfortunately exists on the far right in Israel. Even at the beginning of this year they had a very anti-logical conference, it was on the 28th of January, it was called "For the Victory of Jerusalem". In Jerusalem it was used, in which they raised slogans: "Let us return to Gaza”. People who were part of Gaza's kibbutzim have appeared there and say "We want to return and continue in the old way". And all these sympathizers, members, including these two were there and raised some slogans that were in no way in favor of peace and common sense.
Your thesis is that the war in Gaza shifts electoral layers, but after Turkey, is it possible to observe this in the European elections and the presidential elections in the USA?
So, let's say this: in Turkey, it apparently worked out that way. You remember we talked on your air. Erdogan lost the election because of Gaza. Well, the other day the results of the local elections were officially released – in third place in Turkey is the party "New Prosperity” of Fatih Erbakan, more than 6%, this is somewhere around 700-800 thousand votes that Erdogan lost from the right, from the religious conservative circles, which naturally pressured him to have a more radical position towards Israel in favor of Gaza. And we've seen that he's actually doing that right now – broke trade relations, reduced exports. In general, his narrative, which was pro-Israel in the beginning, is now fundamentally anti-Israel, fundamentally. So domestic politics is very strongly present in Turkey.
As for us, the European Union, we will see at the beginning of June, when our European elections are held. My observations are that the far right is really on the rise: if you look in one France, if you look at Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, in Belgium. But what strikes me is that the Muslims themselves, those who were in the streets, just organized themselves so that they would be a factor as if they were separate external factors in different countries. Well, today there was a very interesting material regarding the platforms, the so-called. "islamic voice“ or "Arabic voice“ in UK local elections. There, there is a very good analysis in terms of: where does the Labor Party, which is accused by these demonstrators of siding with the State of Israel, with the Israeli government in its support against "Hamas" in Gaza.
And where there is a larger, more significant Arab presence, Labor has performed significantly worse than where there is none. In my opinion, we can develop the same thesis with regard to the USA. It's more than obvious there. Here, I will repeat a thesis of mine, since I have been watching very closely the development of the election campaign and polling in the USA. By the way, every day there is a sociological study – a huge country with huge resources. If the election were held now, Donald Trump would be president of the United States. Not because he is better, not because he is more convincing with his argumentation, on the contrary, you see that he cannot get out of the courts. It's just that those who supported Joe Biden in 2020 will not do so now. Let's say this: Joe Biden won four years ago thanks to about 300,000 votes with the six swing states, let's say the so-called "blue wall”, it's about Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and down which they are, that's Nevada, this is Arizona, and this is Georgia.
There, the so-called Black Lives Matter Movement; got him those extra votes. Right now, however, that same emotional vote is turning against him, those 300,000 votes have evaporated. Where mostly: first, blacks don't support it as much as it was 84 to 62%, women also pulled back, but mostly the younger generation pulled away. With the young generation, we have a drop somewhere around 20%. And if it strikes you, where are the most active student protests – it's on the East and West coasts of the US, especially the East, and it's really pushing on the corn of the Democratic campaign. Come on, New York state is traditionally blue, but Pennsylvania is the state that will most likely decide who will be the new old or the new even older president, as there is currently just over a 1% margin in benefit of Donald Trump.
And if the Democratic Party manages to keep these 3 northern states, most likely Biden will also keep the presidency. But if you look at Michigan, you have an Arab community that is somewhere around probably the most significant Arab community, in the entire United States, Arabs are somewhere around 3 million, and Muslims are twice as many. In Michigan in the primary, Joe Biden lost, notice, somewhere around 100,000 votes. They voted "not committed". These are his former sympathizers of Arab and Muslim origin. So these events, these student pro-Palestinian protests are currently very strongly eroding the influence, the electoral weight of the Democrats, which is not very clear whether after 6 months they will be able to restore it. There are simply some signs that the Democrats' strategy will focus on the youth.
But the youth, you see, they are either on campuses, or demanding the resignation of the relevant university president, or even reaching radical demands – let's break diplomatic relations with israel. I.e. there is an overlap between the ethnic demonstrators and those who are left-emotional. Here, this is another topic that has also been very deeply, very detailed, especially in the last few weeks, including in France: is it called "wakeism" from "wake up“, right, they are constantly awake. African Americans started this in the 1960s. Is this for France, they also call it "Melanchonists” by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is the leader of the extreme left in France, or some call them, mind you, "Orwellians” after George Orwell and his book "1984“.
I.e. these are very interesting symbioses that some deny exist. But anyway look at France, look at Britain, look at the US – this is a fact, without pretending that I am hardly the only one who says, who stands for this thesis. The debate is very broad. As early as three years ago in France, it was discussed whether there should be research on the so-called islamic Frédéric Vidal was Minister of Education at the time, he said: "Let's try to investigate in the universities, - it is not just about students, it is about teachers, about researchers - is there such a phenomenon”. Vidal's proposal was not accepted, but the opposition was unfortunately a prelude that there will be very serious clashes on the subject of the "Middle East", on the subject of "Semitism, anti-Semitism". etc.
I.e. the war in Gaza is becoming a decisive factor in the new geopolitical redistribution of the world. Is that so?
Let's say this: if the war in Ukraine was dominant until maybe half a year, 7-8 months ago, now somehow in Western Europe, the USA, the war in Gaza is the one that shifts the layers. Because I tell you again, because there is, my personal opinion is, I want to mention again, a symbiosis between strongly activated ethnic elements and respectively some left, sometimes even far-left currents of the type of feminists, environmentalists, trade unionists, who are simply fighting for the cause called "fighting the genocide in Gaza”.
Here I will give you a concrete example: in the United States, it is not Robert Kennedy who could possibly erode Biden's re-election, but there is a lady, said Jill Stein – this is the representative of the Green Party in the USA, who in 2016 actually gave power to Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. She made a wonderful four results viz. four of those six swing states and thereby eroded Democratic influence. She is an environmentalist, she is of Russian-Jewish descent and very active. Now she appears again as a candidate, third, fourth candidate. But these are causes that I think draw largely from the votes of left-thinking and left-leaning Americans who are traditionally part of the Democratic Party.