During the election campaign, Trump repeatedly said that Russia would not have attacked Ukraine if he himself had been president. Is he right?
Herbert McMaster: We'll never know that. But I think maybe Putin wouldn't attack Ukraine, not least because Trump is unpredictable. I think that in the run-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration was trying in every way to appease Putin, to allay what they thought were his security concerns. This represented a fundamental misunderstanding of Vladimir Putin, of what motivates him, of his desire to restore Russia's national greatness, and of his attempt to rebuild the Russian Empire. Just read the long essay published in July 2021 purportedly written by him. Look at what the Biden administration did: They met with Putin in Geneva, where they announced where their red lines were. Do you know how that sounds about Putin? That for everything else he has the green light. Then we pulled our ships out of the Black Sea, cut off our aid to the Ukrainians that would have allowed them to deal lethal blows to the Russians, and listed all the things we weren't prepared to do for them. And then we evacuated our embassy and all our advisers. In retrospect, it seems to me that we gave Putin the green light to go on the offensive. I don't think Trump would have done the same. If we had given Ukraine the opportunities it has now before 2022, then Putin might not have invaded. It is important to realize that Putin is reacting to the sense of weakness of the opponent.
You have advised Donald Trump on many issues. You advocate always negotiating from a position of strength. Is it time for Ukraine to start negotiating with Russia?
H. McMaster: No, I don't think so. What needs to happen, but seems unlikely to me, is to provide Ukraine with the full range of opportunities it needs. In the last month the Russians suffered more casualties than in any other month of the war. I don't think this can be sustained for long. That's one reason the North Korean soldiers are there. So now is the time to give Ukraine everything it needs. At the same time, Ukrainians are under psychological pressure because President Trump and people in his future administration have already expressed doubts about their willingness to support Ukraine. So I think this is a very critical moment. Of course, it must be negotiated from a position of strength. But how could Ukrainians compromise after experiencing such horror and making so many sacrifices – I'm talking about the mass killings of civilians, the bombing of hospitals and schools, and the kidnapping of children.
The Biden administration is not allowing the Ukrainians to use Western weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. Would you advise Donald Trump to lift this ban?
H. McMaster: I would advise him to do it for strikes against military targets. Otherwise, it makes no sense for the Ukrainians not to attack these bases from which the Russians continue their advance using cluster bombs.
And what would Trump say anyway?
H. McMaster: I think at this stage he will probably say “no”. Because Trump and some people in his close circle are still deluded that Putin can be appeased, that he can be negotiated with in some way. The only thing that can stop Putin is force.
The key question for Ukraine and its partners in Europe, including Germany, is whether Donald Trump will try to force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia on unfavorable terms, such as giving up territories. And whether he will stop the military aid to Ukraine.
H. McMaster: I hope neither happens. My fear, however, and that of many other observers in the US and Europe, is that he will. We heard the idea that he would lure Russia into negotiations by threatening to give Ukraine the full range of capabilities it needs, and on a much larger scale. And then he will force Ukraine to the negotiating table by threatening to cut off aid. This shows that he does not understand the nature of war. To have a favorable outcome, the enemy must see that he is losing the war. Or, for example, for Putin to be convinced that it is not possible to achieve anything more if he continues to use force. I know of no example in history of a favorable diplomatic outcome resulting from an unfavorable battlefield situation.
But there are people in the US and Europe who are convinced that Russia cannot be defeated – not from Ukraine. Their argument is that Russia is too big and too strong. Don't you agree with that?
H. McMaster: Russia is fundamentally weak, this was also seen by the Ukrainian attack in Kursk. But this does not mean that Russia does not have elements of power. Putin can still brandish the nuclear scarecrow. It also has capabilities in cyberspace. Can still hit at long range etc. But consider how fragile this mode is. Why isn't Putin conducting a new wave of mobilization? Because the Russian people will not tolerate it. Why does he appeal to the North Koreans? Because there is a real human resource problem. Remember the march of the private army “Wagner“ to Moscow. An ex-convict and hotdog seller sets out for Moscow, and the authorities, frightened, block the roads in front of him. I think we listen too much to our fears. And Putin is a hooligan, a street thug and a coward, in my opinion, all in one. And he will take anything you let him. But when he meets stiff resistance from Europe and the United States, he will back down. That is why I think that the Europeans should step up, as the Poles, the Baltic States and the Scandinavian countries have done. Because they know what the threat is, it's right on their border. Putin not only continues his offensive in Ukraine, he annexed Belarus, affected the character of the government in Georgia, in Slovakia. Look at what he tried to do in Moldova to influence the referendum. Look at what he is doing now in Bulgaria. It will not stop until it is stopped through concerted military, diplomatic and economic efforts.
And what will Trump do now, what is his plan for Ukraine?
H. McMaster: With Trump, it's very important to look at everything in the context of US interests. My hopes lie with some of his advisers, like Marco Rubio, a candidate for secretary of state who is not isolationist. And with future national security adviser Walz, who is well versed in defense and national security issues. I hope these are the people who will help President Trump understand that continued support for Ukraine is in America's interest as well. Not only because of the humanitarian aspects, but also because of the connection of the war with the axis of the aggressors. I believe that if Russia succeeds in achieving its goals in Ukraine, it will continue to spread the crises we are seeing in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific region. And I think we will see more and more direct threats to Europe. I think it's important for President Trump and everyone to realize this: Russia is at war with us whether we want to admit it or not.
In your book, you describe how at one point you told your wife that after a year as national security adviser “you don’t understand how Putin holds Trump”. What did you mean and what is your possible explanation?
H. McMaster: Trump is very attracted to big deals. And Putin knows how to play with foreign leaders, not only Trump, but others as well. He says, say: “Donald, wouldn't it be great if we could work together to reduce nuclear weapons? Wouldn't it be great if we could fight terrorism together? Wouldn't it be great - and this is the funnest of all - if we could work together on cyber security?”. Putin is pulling Trump's strings, toying with his desire for a grand deal, and I think that's exactly what's happening - flattery plus the prospect of a grand deal with Putin. Trump is attracted to leaders who appear strong. I think Putin is actually weak. Putin is weak, but he is stronger than any organized opposition because there are more political prisoners than at the height of the Cold War, because there are more people in the internal security forces than in the army. Putin is not strong, but I think President Trump falls into the same trap as Orbán and some other nationalist leaders who tend to think that Putin is a strong leader, when in fact, in my opinion, he is extremely weak.
Lieutenant General Herbert McMaster is a former National Security Advisor to President Trump (2017-2018). He is a military historian, research fellow at Stanford University.