Against the backdrop of the power regime introduced in Transnistria due to the suspended supplies of Russian gas, the Moldovan authorities remind that Chisinau's goal is the full and peaceful reintegration of the pro-Russian separatists. As a condition for the start of this process, Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recan indicated the replacement of Russian military personnel with international peacekeepers. Could the current crisis contribute to this?
The transit agreement through Ukraine expired
Gas supplies to Moldova and the self-proclaimed Transnistria were terminated as a result of the suspension of the transit of Russian natural gas through Ukrainian pipelines from January 1, 2025. This transit continued after the start of the war in Ukraine, but the “Gazprom“ contract for transit expired and was not extended, despite the efforts of several EU leaders, in particular the prime ministers of Slovakia and Hungary.
Thus, not only Austria, Hungary and Slovakia were left without cheap Russian gas, but also Moldova, along with Transnistria, de facto occupied by Russia. Moreover, the Moldovan authorities were prepared for this situation - they buy gas at exchange prices in the European Union.
Their problem is only with electricity, a large part of which Moldova bought from Transnistria, and the same Russian gas was used for its production. That is why an electricity saving regime has been introduced in Moldova, but the entire industry, both there and in Transnistria, has not stopped working.
People will have to freeze
The authorities and residents of Transnistria used free Russian gas, and there is no alternative to such a luxury. Tiraspol has emergency reserves of coal to maintain the minimum level of electricity production for only about a month - then people will simply have to freeze.
However, the energy systems of Transnistria and Moldova remain connected. Moldova will only finish building the power line from Romania by the end of 2025, which will allow it to receive electricity directly from the EU. But for now, even if it tries to buy electricity on European markets, it would not be able to get it because of the scheme of organization of the Soviet electricity networks - this is possible only either from Ukraine or from Transnistria.
As for natural gas, Transnistria can only get it in two ways. Directly from Russia is not possible. While the transit was functioning, the gas could come from Ukraine. And the second option is through Moldova - from the EU. But the Russian “Gazprom“ did not set out to save the freezing Transnistria and the dying industry in the region with supplies via the “Turkish Stream“ and from there to the EU countries. Moscow makes it clear what they think – if the gas goes through territory controlled by Chisinau, it will either not reach the Transnistrians at all, or a large part of it will be “lost” on the way in the Moldovan gas transportation system.
Russian authorities are causing discontent
In order to punish Moldova and destabilize the situation there on the eve of the parliamentary elections due later this year, the Kremlin is sacrificing Transnistria. Moscow is probably sure that this is a temporary sacrifice. As the pro-Russian leaders of this de facto occupied territory by Russia claim, they are with the Kremlin forever – because the region's embittered residents blame Moldova for what is happening.
However, it is difficult to go unnoticed that the Russian authorities' policies have recently caused outrage in almost all the territories occupied immediately after the collapse of the USSR. In Abkhazia, for example, they recently overthrew the president who was trying to sign an investment agreement with the Kremlin that would have given this territory entirely to Russian big business.
And now Transnistria is left to freeze in the hope that the crisis will bring to power in Moldova forces loyal to Russia - following the example of what happened in Georgia. But what if this plan fails? Will the Transnistrians, driven to extremes, not turn to Moldova and the EU? The Kremlin seems to be completely oblivious to this risk, pinning its hopes on its military and local pro-Russian leaders. In the territories occupied by Russia, it behaves exactly like a bull in a glass shop. Which is not surprising, given the military aggression against Ukraine. This bloody meat grinder seems to have finally devalued the lives of people in all territories under their control for the Russian authorities.