Most residents of Istanbul are trembling because of predictions of new, but this time much more destructive earthquakes. Erdogan, like a father, reassures them that the rulers are in control of the processes and will not allow such events.
And he traditionally lays wreaths at “Anatkabir”, the mausoleum of Ataturk in the capital Ankara, in honor of his memory as the first reformist president of Turkey and in celebration of the country's national holiday on April 23.
He does this in the days when Berlin has blocked the export of “Eurofighter” fighter jets to Ankara due to the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu. He is in prison in Silivri, not far from the metropolis, but from prison he calls on Germany “not to stop the process of delivering these fighter jets”. When it comes to foreign policy and interests in favor of the sovereignty and independence of the state, there are no two opinions in Turkey. An old rule, traditional and unbroken, no matter whether you are in opposition or in government.
Exceptions only confirm the rule. But from the position of acquired self-confidence in the complex relations that have arisen in geopolitics, Turkey loudly declares that it will import “Eurofighter” through Great Britain, an old and constant ally, and will not resort to the services of Berlin for this import. The question of where to look for the reasons for the disagreements in Europe becomes redundant. Everyone with their own interests and the acquisition of dividends. And it doesn't matter that Starmer, the Prime Minister of the Kingdom, assures Ursula von der Leyen that it is wonderful how they coordinate the topics of rearmament and almost martial friendship between the EU and London.
It turns out, according to the government media, that it is especially important for Turkey to emphasize that "Trump's rhetoric is softening both towards China and Jerome Powell", chairman of the Federal Reserve. Words like "we will be very kind to China, they too, and we will see what happens next" seem like bassam to Turkish souls. Either way, there would be a "fair deal, because otherwise they won't have business with the US."
It's about the imposed mutual tariffs and the disputes over who will lose more from such a policy.
Why shouldn't there be such words regarding Turkey?
It has long been measuring its positions on the international stage with those of other major players. And that's why it is closely monitoring Washington's negotiations with Tehran on the nuclear deal, despite the ongoing mass protests by the opposition in the country. Because the words that "Israel and interested groups are trying to sabotage the negotiation process" create a situation of uncertainty and lack of stability in the region. There are even fears that "there could be sabotage and assassinations like in the past," which would provoke a legitimate reaction from Iran.
Whether these are "fantastic claims" will soon be clear, but Iran remains firm in its position that "every milligram of enriched uranium is under the full and continuous supervision and control of the IAEA." This is probably how they agreed with Moscow. Or perhaps because Russia does not hide that it is able to accept Tehran's already enriched uranium in storage so that a new hot conflict does not break out on its border. Given Tel Aviv's reactions to the possibility of Iran possessing nuclear weapons. Especially now that India and Pakistan, for the umpteenth time, are on the verge of war over the deaths of tourists in Indian Kashmir.
Someone has persistently provoked new regional clashes that have the potential to shake the world with unpredictable consequences. On the eve of May 9, celebrations are also being prepared in Moscow. Modi has confirmed his presence there, but circumstances may change. India is a particularly important country and it is no coincidence that J.D. Vance visited it these days.
Moscow has clearly become divided after events are also taking place in Syria in which Russia has no way of intervening. The IMF, after Syria has not used its funds for 40 years, is now sending its head of mission to that country, Roquevan Ruden. And France has decided to get back into the game there. To fill the vacuum that will be created after Trump announced that “we will withdraw from Northeastern Syria”.
Paris is taking steps to restore its influence in Syria. It plans to deploy its troops in the areas under the control of Kurdish groups, east of the Euphrates. So far, there is talk of only 200-400 soldiers, but it is claimed that the reinforcement of the troops may also be directed at the Iraqi Kurdish regional government. Without mentioning "Iraqi Kurdistan". The Americans would leave only 1,000 of their soldiers and, according to them, this would be enough to "weaken the operational capacity of the Islamic State", ISIS. If anyone thought that ISIS had disappeared after so many years of fighting it, they were wrong in their predictions. Something like Hamas in Gaza. Someone has an interest in their existence. And to use them when necessary. And against whomever it needs to.
The US has already announced the closure of 3 of its 8 military bases in Syria. Among them are even the gas field “Al Omar” and the stronghold “Euphrates”. The White House is clearly distancing itself from maintaining a military presence in Syria, and France is excited to “get in the game”. Like the one with Brussels, which sat down, allowed by Washington, at the table for peace talks on Ukraine, but at this stage the results are unsatisfactory. Neither from the meeting in Paris nor from the one in London. And in Syria, France would not only reduce the tension between the Syrian Democratic Forces and Turkey, but also resolve the conflict with the interim administration in Damascus.
In March, there was an agreement to integrate the PKK/YPG, organizations of the Syrian Kurds, with the rulers in Damascus, but the disagreements turned out to be more than acceptable. Including with regard to the decentralized government demanded by the Syrian Kurds, i.e. they want their own regional government in Syria. This at a stage when Tel Aviv is trying to dissuade the US from withdrawing from Syria. Israel is concerned that the vacuum east of the Euphrates will open up military space for Turkey. It is not that Turkey has not been present in this part of Syria for years. And it has no intention of withdrawing. On the contrary, it is constantly mentioned that these are lands that were owned by the Ottoman Empire.
Official representatives of Israel speak of Turkey as a “regional rival”.
The fact is that France has a more flexible policy towards Damascus than that of other European countries. “Figaro” writes that after the fall of the Assad government, Paris “sees the situation as an opportunity and will strive to return to the game in this process”. He won't just deal with Marine Le Pen or the French protests over living standards and migrants, right? That's why Macron is active in Syria. He will advocate for the full integration of the PKK/YPG into the Syrian army. Something that is also Erdogan's policy. And it contradicts Israel's interests in Syria.
As for Washington, it is interesting why the new American bases, which will remain in Syria with a reduced staff, are positioned near the Tishreen Dam and on the border between Syria and Iraq. Is water in the region more important than gas fields or are there expectations of clashes on the borders? It is no coincidence that recently more and more Western analysts are talking about changing the borders. And in other regions. Apparently it is coming. It is not only Ukraine.