Comment by Emilia Milcheva:
For the first time, GERB leader Boyko Borisov will not only not be the Prime Minister of a government with the GERB mandate, but will also have to take on a new, atypical role for him - to provide the rear of the government in parliament.
Despite the Joint Governance Council, formed by the four political forces in power - GERB-SDF, BSP-United Left, “There is such a people” (ITN) and “Democracy, Rights and Freedoms” - DPS, the task of being the main coordinator and guarantor of the stability of the ruling coalition weighs on his shoulders. This includes not only organizing parliamentary support for key bills, but also balancing the often conflicting interests of the partners in this alliance.
Behind the Front Line
The reason is that of all the other parties supporting the government, only he works as an MP. The chairman of the ITN, Slavi Trifonov, does not participate in the activities of the National Assembly. The interim governing BSP, Atanas Zafirov, as well as the leadership of the parliamentary group of the left, Borislav Gutsanov and Manol Genov, have acquired ministerial positions. Ahmed Dogan has also been out of parliament for years, having been forced to reluctantly return to operational politics and once again take up strategic leadership after his favorite, Delyan Peevski, consolidated his control over the MRF.
Borisov's task is further complicated by the need to coordinate his actions with partners whose ambitions and priorities are often in conflict. The burden is also increased by the lack of key figures in the GERB parliamentary group involved in the executive branch. The party sent there its "first echelon", as the leader himself defined it - Rosen Zhelyazkov, Tomislav Donchev, Temenuzhka Petkova, Daniel Mitov. Georg Georgiev and Georgi Georgiev also took over from the GERB parliamentary group at the ministries of foreign affairs and justice.
Now Boyko Borisov will have to demonstrate his skills as a strategist and moderator in order to prevent splits in both his group and the parliamentary majority, as well as to minimize the risks of government failure. This position requires not only experience and political instinct, but also the ability to balance loyalty to one's own party and maintaining the fragile unity of the coalition.
The first test
For GERB, it is important to hold on to the power it has gained after seven failed attempts to form a regular cabinet for as long as possible. In fact, the most serious test for the current government is ahead in parliament - and this will be the election of members of the regulators and the judiciary.
The chronogram for the election of control and regulatory bodies should be ready by mid-February, in which all bodies with expired mandates should be filled within 1 year of signing the management agreement. And it stipulates that the priority ones, “whose filling begins immediately after the adoption of the chronogram are: Supreme Judicial Council (SJC), Inspectorate to the SJC, Ombudsman, Commission for Combating Corruption, Commission for the Confiscation of Illegally Acquired Property, Chamber of Accounts”.
If the quadruple political alliance passes these upcoming elections without falling apart, its chances for a longer life are significantly extended.
Is there a fifth in the coalition
From the very beginning of the formation of the government, there have been speculations and guesses that the fifth coalition partner is Delyan Peevski. Supporters of the government reject them with the argument that the opponent of Peevski and his “DPS Novo nacholo” is a partner of GERB, BSP and ITN. It will soon become apparent in the distribution of posts and portions - when Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov appoints regional governors. During the two caretaker governments, headed by Dimitar Glavchev, who is close to GERB, people from Peevski's circle were appointed as regional governors in mixed regions and as deputy regional governors in others. It will be clear this week how Zhelyazkov will act. By January 22, GERB, BSP, ITN and Ahmed Dogan's formation must give him lists of names.
In parliament, the relationship between Borisov and Peevski will be under scrutiny, as they could prove to be a key factor for the stability of the coalition. Peevski's aggressive approach, aimed mainly at the PP-DB, has so far usually bypassed the GERB leader, while Borisov has avoided open confrontation with the oligarch, who has been sanctioned for corruption by the US and UK.
Next year, presidential elections…
In this new position - to protect the government's back, Borisov will have to rely on his many years of experience as a leader and his ability to maneuver in complex political situations. The task will not be easy - both because of the unstable nature of the coalition and because of the diverse opposition, part of which is Peevski's MRF.
With another party from the opposition camp, the pro-Russian "Vazrazhdane"; the GERB leader finds common ground - they voted together, coordinated positions and actions. With the smallest group in parliament, that of MECH, they are unlikely to get along. There remains the PP-DB, with which Borisov ... well, let's just say it's complicated. So the GERB leader would hardly open a new front by confronting Peevski, and will most likely rely on pragmatic cooperation - in the short term.
The outcome of the presidential elections, which are due next fall, will largely depend on the success of the government. The current head of state, Rumen Radev, is serving his last second term. If the coalition passes the tests and Bulgaria is included in the eurozone from January 1, 2026, this will strengthen the positions of GERB (and their partners) in the elections. In addition, it provides an opportunity for a successful GERB minister to replace Borisov in the leadership position. The failure of the cabinet will allow the opposition - or rather a part of it - to mobilize its electorate, including through a presidential candidate. The time is approaching when journalists will once again besiege Borisov with the question: “Will you run for president?”.