The situation in Bulgaria today shows that the government is becoming more and more problematic, but it is still inevitable to stay in power. And the real political alternative to power is becoming more and more illusory. By Vesselin Stoynev.
DPS-DPS was going to leave the government, but another time. Ahmed Dogan's formation tried to resolve an insoluble dilemma: to remain in the government majority and thus increasingly disfigure itself and be scorned by DPS-New Beginning; or to leave the majority, without being able to join an alternative one and finally cement Delyan Peevski in the government, which would become completely dependent on him. Finally, Solomon-style, the resolution of the dilemma was postponed for three months in the name of the eurozone.
The crisis in the MRF-Dogan deepened
With this, the crisis in the formation, deprived even of its own name, deepened - the participants in the party meeting were divided equally on both sides of the dilemma, and the leadership problem was exposed. Honorary Chairman Ahmed Dogan sticks out in absentia like a portrait of Kemal Ataturk from the wall, and Chairman Cevdet Chakarov has the authority of an official prime minister from an unfilled House Book. The plundering of the “authentic MRF“ shows more and more clearly that it is so ideologically and personnel-wise weak that even the predator created from its womb risks turning into a scavenger.
Predator or scavenger, Peevski has 10 more deputies than the DPS-DPS and can even make the current majority of 121 deputies much more stable, increasing it with his group to 131, if he replaces Dogan's people. He is already an intruder in the majority, but if the DPS-DPS leaves it, there is no longer any shame in refusing him "help". The shame has been swallowed with the failed cordon sanitaire around Peevski, and the notorious climbing on Boyko Borisov's back is the favorite game of horse riding with the Boy for years.
The conditions that the DPS-DPS set in order to stay in power – Peevski to stop harassing his cadres locally, and to have their voice heard in the coalition, are without collateral, because they have already signed the check that they will guard the cabinet until the decision on the eurozone. The result of all the tension “we will leave, but another time“ is a public admission of political impotence - and that the besieged formation is actually on the verge of collapse.
The vote of no confidence - indirect support for the government
However, indirect support for the government is also obtained from the vote of no confidence submitted by the Russophile opposition, which will not receive more than the modest 54 votes, which are the parliamentary resources of the three parties dissatisfied with the government's foreign policy - “Vazrazhdane“, MECH and “Velichye“. But after the initial debate over which of the three is the most authentic opposition, this meaningless parliamentary initiative in itself actually aims to legitimize a common bloc of those who want (or those who wanted) Bulgaria to turn its back on Europe.
Does the cabinet also support the PP-DB?
Through the vote of no confidence, the ruling majority will also receive indirect support from the pro-European opposition in the face of the PP-DB, which declares that it will not support it because it is absurd to support a deviation from the country's foreign policy course, even though it is dissatisfied with its hesitant retention by the ruling party. The PP-DB can easily bear the propaganda blows from the pro-Russian opposition that they are once again a crutch for corrupt officials, as in the assembly. Because it must be completely understandable to their voters that their political representatives cannot threaten our entry into the eurozone, nor be together with the pro-Kremlin proxies. But they themselves may create traps.
First, if the behavior of the PP-DB group in the plenary hall is different - one for the PP, another for the DB. In this case, it is stupid to show differences, because there is no principled basis for such. Second, if the wrong approach is chosen regarding the three options for voting on the vote - not participating in it, voting "against" or "abstaining". All three have no bearing on the result, because according to the constitution, for the vote to be successful and the government to fall, 121 votes are needed - i.e. the quorum does not matter. Therefore, only seemingly, non-voting, including not entering the plenary hall, seems the most tempting. Voting "against" can be perceived by inertia as support for the government, and voting "abstaining" - like a timid support.
When you are against, you vote “against“
All three options are only instruments of a clearly stated principled decision - that the PP-DB will not support this vote of no confidence. And loading them with additional meaning, in the illusory search for nuances, can only undermine the principled position behind which this formation firmly stands, by not supporting the vote. Therefore, the most correct tactical move is the one that is most directly connected to the principled decision, and it is - when you are against, to vote against, and not “abstain“ or not to participate in the vote.
A position on value and strategic issues is stated categorically, there is no room for reservations or disgust here. The opposition gains strength precisely when it does not make unprincipled compromises. And this is exactly what strengthens its position - We have many reasons to overthrow the government, but we do not have any in foreign policy, and now is not the time to overthrow it.
The turmoil is of no benefit to the government and the opposition
The turmoil in the parliament in and around the ruling majority ultimately does not benefit anyone, and this will only reinforce the obvious to the public - that there is neither a strong majority nor a strong opposition in the National Assembly, as 63% of Bulgarians believe, according to the latest Gallup survey for BNT's "Referendum". Political life in our country is now like stagflation in the economy, when inflation is rising, growth is stagnant, and unemployment is rising. In today's political stagflation, governance is becoming increasingly problematic, but it is still inevitable to remain in power, and the real political alternative to power is becoming increasingly illusory.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State Gazette as a whole.