The interests of the great powers intersect in the Arctic. This is no coincidence: there are deposits of natural resources there, the region is important for navigation, and also for military purposes. China, the USA and Russia are fighting for it.
In July and August 2024, the ice of the Arctic Ocean broke under the steel of three heavy icebreakers: Xuelong 2, Ji Di and Zhong Shan Da Xue Ji Di. The three ships rehearsed the unhindered passage through the Arctic Ocean. But this was an act of mostly symbolic significance: with this, Beijing wanted to show that China is present and will continue to be present in the Arctic in the long term. And the message was heard. "The Arctic is becoming Chinese", wrote the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti in October 2024.
China has long been in the Arctic, says Michael Paul, a maritime security expert at the Berlin-based think tank "Foundation for Science and Politics" (SWP) and the author of several studies on the geostrategic importance of the Arctic and China's presence there. "China has been very active in the region since the early 2000s, especially in Iceland. But then Beijing faced strong resistance from Denmark and the United States." Both countries feared excessive Chinese influence, Paul said. "Beijing then turned its attention to other countries in the region - and especially to Russia. But it has been weakened by the war in Ukraine and is now increasingly playing the role of China's junior partner in the Arctic."
The demonstration of a presence in the Arctic comes against the backdrop of climate change, which is particularly visible in this part of the world. The average annual temperature in 2024 was about 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial period, and according to the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, the Arctic region is warming four times faster than the rest of the planet. As a result, the Arctic ice cap is melting faster and faster. If it decreases significantly by 2040, as is predicted, three new shipping routes from the Pacific to the Atlantic or vice versa will likely emerge, allowing existing routes to be shortened - in some cases significantly.
Three new sea routes
One of these routes, the so-called Northeast Sea Route, which runs along the Russian coast, is already being developed by China and Russia as a route for trade and raw materials. "In particular, this includes transporting gas from the Yamal Peninsula in Western Siberia to China," says political scientist Klaus-Peter Saalbach of the University of Osnabrück. He is the author of a study on the geostrategic importance of the Arctic. However, this route is still very little used at present. "Only a few dozen ships pass through it every year," he says.
The Northwest Passage, which runs along the coast of Canada, is even more difficult to navigate. It is considered significantly more difficult to navigate than the Northeast Passage. "The US Congressional Research Service doubts that it will ever be commercially viable," says Saalbach. It would also become a political challenge for Russia and China, since "part of it passes through areas that Canada considers its territorial waters, meaning Ottawa has the right to regulate shipping there," the expert adds.
Given the rapid melting of the ice, it can be predicted that the so-called transpolar sea route will open in the summer months. It crosses the Arctic Ocean directly and is therefore easier to navigate. At the same time, it is also the shortest route across the sea. "Iceland, for example, could play a role as a transshipment port on this route", says Saalbach. "China has already built a huge embassy in Iceland, which speaks of a strong Chinese presence in the future. Iceland, for its part, is reaching out to the EU, but also to Russia and China."
Trump, Greenland and Panama
US President Donald Trump is currently flirting with the idea of Greenland coming under US control - a project he has pursued since his first term and which has been in line with general US policy since World War II.
In effect, cooperation between China and Russia on the Northern Sea Route amounts to the two countries controlling which other countries can use the Arctic route in the future, says Michael Paul. "So it is understandable that this could trigger an allergic reaction in Trump. He did this with the Panama Canal, whose two ports at the entrance and exit were controlled by Chinese companies. But now they have been sold to an American consortium. Japan and South Korea also want to use the northern sea route in the future, but they do not want to be dependent on Russia or China, he added.
Lots of mineral resources
At the same time, melting ice makes it easier to extract the region's rich mineral resources. According to a 2008 study by the US Geological Survey (USGS), about 30% of the world's undiscovered natural gas reserves and 13% of undiscovered oil reserves are located in the Arctic. Greenland is rich in rare earth elements, which are needed to produce high-tech products such as smartphones, electric motors and batteries. The Arctic also contains metals, diamonds, coal and uranium. "All this is intensifying the competition for the region," says Saalbach.
However, extracting them is associated with considerable difficulties, says Michael Paul of "Science and Politics" - it has to be carried out under extreme climatic conditions and requires logistics that currently almost do not exist. "In Greenland, some deposits turned out to be less profitable than initially thought", he recalls, adding that the dispute over the rights to exploit resources in some areas of the Arctic has also not yet been resolved.
The military dimensions of the issue
The Arctic is also very interesting from a military point of view. Since it is the shortest connection between Russia and North America, in the event of an attack, Russian missiles would fly over the Arctic. At the Thule Air Base, now renamed the Pitufik Space Base, the US has an early warning system for possible missile attacks from Russia or other areas. It also serves as a supply and refueling station for US and NATO aircraft.
There, they will also have to prepare for a growing Chinese presence in the region. For example, in 2015, five Chinese warships passed through the 12-mile zone off Alaska, and since 2021, warships sent by Beijing have been present in the zone regularly. In 2022, the US recorded a flotilla of Russian and Chinese ships almost 100 miles from Kiska Island, which belongs to Alaska - including a destroyer equipped with Type 055 "Nanchang" guided missiles, hypersonic anti-ship missiles and capable of carrying up to 112 cruise missiles.