The American Institute for the Study of War predicts the imminent annexation of Belarus by Russia. The Kremlin already has enough influence in Belarus, and Putin will only have to play the card with the union state.
In the next ten years, Russia will annex Belarus - the conclusion is contained in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War. The author of the document, George Barros, suggests that the Kremlin is trying to create a union state headed by a federal government dominated by Russia, and thus gain power over most, if not all, aspects of Belarusian governance.
The political observer of the Belarusian “Radio Liberty“ Yuri Drakokhrust believes that the changes that have taken place in Belarus since the events of 2020, as well as as a result of Russia's war against Ukraine, indicate the possibility of annexation becoming their logical continuation. “Lukashenko's political weakening, the involvement of Belarus in the war, the deployment of nuclear weapons and the decision to send Oreshnik missiles to Belarus, the reorientation of Belarusian trade flows towards Russia - all this is evidence that Russia's influence in Belarus is increasing,“ the expert says.
Russia already has the power it needs in Belarus
Russian political scientist Alexander Morozov believes that the Kremlin may still prefer to use Belarus as a springboard: “What prevents Putin from launching an attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus? Nothing, this has already happened. We can imagine the same situation with respect to other countries in the region: using the territory of Belarus, Putin could try to aggravate relations with Lithuania, for example. Although the inclusion of Belarus in the Russian Federation would be ideologically justified, in practice the Kremlin needs only to rely on the concept of a union state“.
Yuri Drakokhrust points out that in the eyes of Russians, the forcible conquest of Belarus would not look good. “If Kiev is the mother of Russian cities, Belarus is not so deeply rooted among Russians even in cultural terms – in a general imperial sense, for them it is “ours“, but without making any special efforts.“
Russia needs Belarus to prepare for future wars
The report by George Barros states that in today's military-political situation, the annexation of Belarus could help the Kremlin compensate for the cost of the protracted war against Ukraine, accelerate Russia's recovery after its end, and help prepare for future wars.
Alexander Morozov agrees that if during the hybrid policy before the war Belarus was more advantageous for the Kremlin, the war has changed the situation. “This raises great concerns, I think, even for Lukashenko himself - since he successfully pushed the idea to the elite and society that he is the only guarantor that Belarus will not be annexed by Russia. But today, the needs of Putin's policy and how the Kremlin formulates the concept of national security are increasingly bringing Belarus into the composition of Russia.“
According to the political scientist, if the war against Ukraine ends “on the dividing line“ without subsequent demilitarization of the region, Putin will then begin to threaten NATO countries, and the Alliance, in turn, will begin to strengthen its eastern flank. In this scenario, Russia will need Belarus as an instrument for military threats to Europe.
Historically and geopolitically, Russia considers Belarus “its“
According to Yuri Drakokhrust, the report by George Barros lacks the historical perspective that could become a positive sign. “Belarusian independence is not expanding, but many threats that have arisen since the 1990s and the scenarios of 2020 and 2022 have not been fulfilled. The report argues that Russia is discussing the transition of Belarus to the Russian ruble, but this was discussed even before Lukashenko came to power 25 years ago.“ Drakokhrust emphasizes that this has not happened to this day.
In parallel, the Institute for the Study of War report mentions Putin's beliefs in the context of the “Russian world“ as a motive for the annexation of Belarus. “The means that Putin uses to restore control over Belarus and Ukraine are different, but they are rooted in the same ideological concept. Putin has repeatedly said that Russians, Belarusians and Ukrainians constitute one “trinitarian nation”, which was artificially and forcibly divided due to political shortcomings during and after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin claims that the Russian Federation must unite this “Russian nation“.
Neither Belarusians nor Lukashenko see Belarus as part of Russia
Yuri Drakokhrust believes that neither the Belarusian people, nor the elite, nor Alexander Lukashenko want to see Belarus as part of Russia. The president's position is especially due to his feudal thinking. “It is not because Lukashenko is obsessed with national feelings, but because he perceives Belarus as his fiefdom, which he has ennobled, placed his own people in key positions, manages them and receives income from them.“ In addition, the political analyst is of the opinion that the Belarusian elite does not want to mix with the Russian one.
Alexander Morozov points out that the prospect of getting rid of the “burden of the union state“ in Belarusian society will arise at a time of weakness of the Kremlin. “Such a scenario is possible, because if the war continues for another two or three years, this will lead to significant exhaustion of Russia. Then Belarus will be given the opportunity for independent political choices, and this will be a new historical process.“