The situation in Bulgaria is not desperate, but it is very disturbing. Because key players change basic value orientations within days. And some holes disappear, but new ones quickly appear. By Daniel Smilov.
This week, a fundamental law of the Bulgarian political process was proven: if one hole disappears, another hole of the same size and emptiness appears to compensate. Physical space does not tolerate a vacuum - it always seeks to fill it. Political space, and especially Bulgarian space, sometimes acts on the opposite principle. It often does not tolerate content and seeks to build empty, empty "holes" around which to ignite a generally meaningless, but noisy and energetic political conflict. This is because parties need to mobilize their supporters, which happens mostly through conflict. If everyone starts to constructively care about the public interest, if everyone sits down at the table to solve problems with obvious solutions, the voter will probably fall asleep or at least be bored to death. This is the theory that many Bulgarian parties are currently operating on.
The empty holes in Bulgarian politics
That is why empty holes appear in the political space, such as the one of 18 billion in the country's budget. Since it disappeared or is about to disappear completely during the week (insofar as something that does not exist can disappear), another empty hole has opened in its place: the fight against Soros and his influence in Bulgaria. As the first conflict is pointless (i.e., empty), so is the second. But this will only become clear after some time, and until then there will be opportunities for oratory, bombast, politicking and a show for the voter. A low-quality one, but still a show.
The good news of the week is that GERB held its own and made (on the whole) a well-intentioned attempt to close both holes - both the old and the newly emerged one. This is truly the weekly behavior of a responsible party that is interested in political content, not the mobilization vacuum. GERB's responsible behavior so inspired Assen Vassilev - the personalization of a political opponent of the new majority and government - that he stated that he would support the budget if the government fulfilled its promises of a 3% deficit and maintaining the tax level and the steps set to increase pensions and incomes. Vassilev's request is somewhat understandable. If this happens, the new government will actually continue the budget policy that it itself has set in recent years. This is a policy of tight budgets, with no surplus left at the end of the year for distribution to client networks.
In fact, in the budget proposed by former caretaker minister Petkova, the "hole" of 18 billion came as a result of all the investments in client networks. For example, for capital expenditures alone, the increase for 2025 should have been about 50% compared to 2024: from 10 billion to nearly 15 billion. And this is given that for 2024, out of the 10 billion invested, only 7 billion were implemented due to a lack of suitable projects. So such generous increases are, of course, unjustified, considering that the country's economy grew by about 2.5% for the year. The same applies to the budgets of individual ministries, as well as municipalities, all of which had introduced the most ambitious programs. The problem for GERB is that all programs were promised to certain people and companies, who are now (with some right) dissatisfied.
However, Assen Vassilev is wrong if he seriously intends to support the new government's budget, and especially if this becomes the position of the PP-DB as well, and not just his personal one. Voting on the budget carries the weight of a vote of no confidence - the opposition must be the opposition. It would be a different matter if GERB does not have a majority for a reasonable budget and turns to the PP-DB for help. But at the moment, things are not that way.
When the numbers come out, the holes fall silent
Although in politics, the word hole makes, when the numbers come out, the holes fall silent. And this week, the news came that instead of a deficit of 400 million leva - forecast by the regular minister Petkova - the country came out "miraculously" a surplus of almost 500 million for January. For this reason, and perhaps for another, acting Minister Petkova left the Ministry of Finance to receive new important responsibilities in the administration.
Borisov seems to still be waging a rearguard battle for the hole, but it has already shrunk to 4 billion, which is not known exactly what they are and whether they exist or not (beyond the discrepancies between the cash and accrual basis that are normal for any budget). Unfriendly observers would say that Borisov simply regrets the unpaid construction of non-existent highways, which the "Petkov" and "Denkov" governments stopped or tried to stop. But it may not be entirely so, but simply an organized withdrawal of GERB forces from the debate about the budget hole.
"New Beginning", however, opened a new front and created a strong suction moment – in the form of a new hole that can absorb any political content in the coming days, and perhaps weeks. A parliamentary commission to investigate Soros' influence in Bulgaria is a proposal that demonstrates that Delyan Peevski is trying to follow Orban's path and turn from a Euro-Atlantic and liberal into a conservative or something similar. This is not a particularly surprising move. What is rather surprising is the agility and lack of scruples with which this is being done - after all, Peevski began his career in the liberal NMSV. According to the theory of holes, however, the proposal of "New Beginning" is very appropriate due to its double pointlessness. First, parliamentary investigative commissions are created against illegal, unregulated or immoral activity. Soros is known as a philanthropist with his support for an open society and liberal democracy. Thank God, these ideas are not banned or declared immoral in Bulgaria. Moreover, by constitution, Bulgaria is both an open society and a liberal democracy (if, of course, anyone cares about the content of these concepts, and not the propaganda vacuum with which they try to fulfill them). Second, for nearly 20 years (after the country's entry into the EU) Soros has almost completely withdrawn financial support for Bulgaria and other EU member states, similar to USAID - the ill-fated foreign aid agency closed by the Trump administration. So the proposal to investigate ideological influence, which is neither illegal nor immoral, nor differs in any significant way from the protection of basic constitutional principles of Bulgaria, as well as funding that has been significantly reduced, is an example of a contentless "hole" that aims only at conflict and mobilization of voters.
The noise around this hole will be loud and "Vazrazhdane" will also join it, who consciously use violence – even physical, to win votes. It is only natural for our society to react to this fascistic trend, but so far there is no healthy immune reaction against it.
It is not desperate, but it is very disturbing
This is the situation in general. It is not desperate, but it is very disturbing, since key players change basic value orientations within days. Due to the change of administration in one or another Western or Eastern capital, politicians and public figures in our country change, and this is not news. However, it speaks of a great conditionality of political content, of a lack of serious value commitment. Even some public figures have already announced that values are disappearing and only interests remain. If this is so, political speaking, persuasion, and argumentation do not have much meaning. The only "subject" of disputes would be the bone that must be grabbed by the biggest dog. This, of course, is a dystopia that we are far from. But filling parliamentary activity with empty holes leads to similar cynicism among both politicians and citizens.
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State Gazette as a whole.