GERB's strategic move - the changes in the regulators to go along with the budget for 2025, provides an opportunity for bargaining and the search for "floating" majorities. What does GERB want and what are the PP-DB ready for.
GERB applies the tactic of rapid change – while the parliament forces the election of key regulatory bodies in a shortened timeframe, the government of Rosen Zhelyazkov submits the budget for 2025. The coordinated move suggests an attempt at institutional control before possible political turmoil, and also an opportunity for bargaining – trading seats in the first 16 bodies that will be renewed, in exchange for support for one or another expense.
Who is for the euro, please…
The delayed budget, which should have been adopted by the end of 2024, is critically important not only for the work of the state, but also in view of Bulgaria's strategic goal to introduce the euro from January 1, 2026. This goal has been stated by two of the eight political forces represented in parliament - the ruling GERB and the opposition “We continue the change - Democratic Bulgaria” (PP-DB).
Those remaining in parliament, whether in coalition with GERB or in opposition, are against the euro, for which they find formal arguments - now is not the time, it would lead to a financial catastrophe and people would become poorer, and others, such as the “authentic DPS” they are simply silent. That is why Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov, who promised a budget with a 3% deficit, turned to the PP-DB to support him, so that the cabinet could request a convergence report in February.
They hurried to agree from “We continue the change”, but the easy agreement, without having seen the policies, expenses and assessed the potential consequences, resembles an automatic pressing of the “yes” button. Later, their representatives nuanced the agreement - that between the first and second reading they would fight for changes, while “Democratic Bulgaria” announced that support has not been discussed for now and they will not back down from the reforms that are important to them.
One of their proposals is that civil servants gradually, within 6 years, start paying their social security contributions, which are now at the expense of the budget. The DB also disagrees on other issues - such as the increase by over 50% in salaries in the Ministry of Interior, which will cost over 1.3 billion leva. “Democratic Bulgaria” proposes to increase the salaries only for police officers in the field and to release pensioners working in the system, and for private hospitals to hold auctions for medicines. But for salaries in the Ministry of Interior, the ruling coalition is unreservedly supported by another opposition force - “DPS-New Beginning” of oligarch Delyan Peevski.
Feints with majorities
Obviously, GERB-SDF will maneuver between the various agreements and disagreements in search of thematic majorities, known in parliamentary practice as “floating”. According to BNR, Bozhidar Bozhanov (DB) admitted that the ruling party may not have a majority for the budget and is therefore seeking support from the opposition. “On the second reading, we will support all meaningful policies that limit spending”, he said.
But given the fact that the budget is valid for a year, and a place in the regulators is a long-term investment, ensuring influence for at least 4-5 years, disputes over spending could cloud the elections of the unshakable government. The discussions that began early have the potential to shift public attention from personnel changes at certain moments and reduce the public debate about the procedures for selecting regulatory bodies and the qualities and integrity of the nominees.
The 2025 budget must be adopted by the end of March, when the so-called extension law expires. Until then, the question is how much exactly the deficit will be for the first 3 months, for which money will be taken out of the financial reserve. According to preliminary forecasts by the Minister of Finance Temenuzhka Petkova - 3.6 billion leva, but the data on the implementation of the budget for January are still delayed and speculations about a surplus in the first month of the year have emerged.
The start was ahead of schedule
The process of renewing the institutions started before the second echelon of power was appointed - deputy ministers, agency directors, regional governors. It even ahead of the schedule itself for how exactly it will happen, which was agreed upon by the ruling parties from GERB-SDF, BSP-United Left (OL), “There is such a people” (ITN) and DPS-Democracy for Rights and Freedoms of Ahmed Dogan. The parliamentary committees have already adopted the rules for nominations. The start will be given this week, as announced in Burgas by the Chairperson of the 51st National Assembly, Assoc. Prof. Natalia Kiselova. A minimum period of 7 days is provided for each of them.
If it would not be a problem for the ruling coalition to allocate most of the 96 positions to its people, a qualified majority of 160 votes is required for the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) and the Inspectorate, and the four parties have 126. After Peevski announced that “DPS-New Beginning” will not nominate candidates for the regulators and control bodies, nor will it support others, it is inevitable that GERB and PP-DB will enter into negotiations.
The ruling majority needs their 37 parliamentary votes, and PP-DB is aware that this is their chance to have their representatives in the key body that manages and organizes the judiciary and which will elect a new Prosecutor General and a new President of the Supreme Administrative Court (SAC) this year. On bTV, PP co-chair Kiril Petkov admitted such a possibility, stating that for institutions like the Supreme Judicial Council they cannot gather 160 votes, “even if Peevski votes with them - and that means they will have to seek the votes of the opposition”.
The distribution of key positions sets future dependencies
During such talks, it is not impossible to negotiate positions in other key regulators, whose composition is being renewed - the Commission for the Protection of Competition (CPC), the Energy and Water Regulatory Commission (EWRC), the Communications Regulation Commission (CRC), the governor of the National Health Insurance Fund, which allocates a budget of over 8 billion. The Court of Auditors will also be renewed, a deputy governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, responsible for “Banking Supervision”, an ombudsman and others are being sought. Some of them fall within the scope of potential candidates for acting prime minister.
The current configuration of power not only distributes control over key institutions, but also lays the foundations for future new dependencies or qualitative change. Reforms through the 2025 budget, however, are rather impossible - they require the political will of the ruling party, not thematic majorities.
This comment expresses the author's personal opinion and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State Gazette as a whole.