Nikolai MARCHENKO
On February 17, 2025, shocked by the speech of US Vice President J.D. Vance in Munich and the increasing pro-Russian rhetoric of Donald Trump, along with the rest of Europe, Emmanuel Macron convened an extraordinary EU summit in Paris. Unfortunately, this event did not lead to any significant result. On the contrary, it looked not like an attempt to show solidarity with Kiev, but rather like a desire to use pan-European solidarity with Ukraine for domestic political purposes.
This looked like Macron's attempt to compensate for his recent failures in his foreign and domestic policies. By the beginning of 2025, along with the loss of influence in Africa, Paris finds itself on the brink of a serious domestic political and economic crisis, and European allies are increasingly skeptical of its role in international politics.
The consequences of geopolitical failures
In recent years, France has faced serious domestic challenges. Economic growth is slowing, inflation is rising, and the living standards of the French are declining. Macron's policies aimed at reforms of the labor market and pension system have provoked mass protests. Strikes paralyze the transport system, and the level of public discontent sometimes reaches critical levels.
In 2024, despite a projected GDP growth of 1.1% and a reduction in unemployment to 7.3% (the lowest level in 40 years), France faces a growing budget deficit and an increase in public debt to 112% of GDP (3.2 trillion euros).
The political crisis has led to the change of four prime ministers in the last 13 months. After the early elections initiated by Macron in an attempt to avoid a vote of no confidence on the budget, parliament is practically inoperable, which makes it difficult to adopt key legislative initiatives and increases political instability.
All this raises legitimate questions about Macron's ability to govern effectively - this thought was formulated recently. “The French political class is no longer focused on Macron, his influence is rapidly fading. Even though Macron's presidential term has not yet ended, from a political point of view he is already exhausted”, noted the famous Algerian journalist and editor-in-chief of El Watania television, Hussein Halas.
Foreign policy failures
The lack of foreign policy successes only exacerbates the situation. For decades, France was considered the dominant power in West Africa and the Sahel region. But the forced withdrawal of French troops from these regions, which occurred against the backdrop of a series of coups and an unprecedented rise in anti-French sentiment, poses serious challenges for Paris. This is a strain not only on security policy, but also on trade, investment and corporate interests.
Paris has never been able to tame the terrorist threat in the Sahel, which raises reasonable questions among African journalists and scholars about the true purpose of its military bases.“The French army was not there to defend African countries and their territories, but to defend French interests and French citizens”, says Chadian university professor Adumu Wey.
The vacuum left behind by the French army is being filled by Russian mercenaries from the private military company “Wagner”. Meanwhile, tensions in the region are only increasing, which recently led to a serious escalation between the Democratic Republic of Congo and neighboring Rwanda.
Summits without key allies
Against these geopolitical setbacks, President Macron seems to have seen the Ukrainian agenda as a good opportunity to demonstrate his political initiative. However, his attempts were not successful. The Baltic states and Romania — countries that are on the front lines of defense against Russian aggression and are directly involved in regional security — were not invited to the summit on February 17, 2025.
Even more paradoxical was the absence of representatives from Ukraine itself — the country for whose protection the Paris meeting seems to have been organized. No less worrying is the absence of the Ukrainian side from the talks held in Riyadh between the US and Russia. This fuels concerns in Kiev about possible backroom agreements which, despite the assurances of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, could be adopted without Ukraine's participation and against its interests.
In an attempt to make up for the shortcomings, Macron convened a second Paris summit on Wednesday. This time, the composition was much more representative: 19 heads of state and government from EU and NATO member states, including Norway, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Greece, Finland, Romania, Sweden, Belgium, as well as Canada. Although Ukraine was not present at this meeting either, interests and security were the focus. Apparently seeking to consolidate France's leadership in pan-European security, Macron announced his intention to hold talks with the leaders of the 27 EU member states by the end of the week.
Is the breakdown of transatlantic ties the new reality?
The Paris summits are taking place against the backdrop of cooling relations between Europe and the United States. The rift has grown especially since the Munich Conference, where Vice President Vance voiced the sharp claims of the US to the EU. Combined with Trump's pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, this is making European leaders think seriously about a new configuration of common security and the future role of the EU and NATO.
Realizing that the future of Europe directly depends on the results of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the leaders confirmed their long-term support for Ukraine. This includes expanding military supplies and economic assistance, strengthening diplomatic efforts to achieve a sustainable peace without damage to Ukraine. They also discussed the unity of the EU and their joint foreign policy in the conditions of turbulence created by the US.
On Wednesday, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda proposed a plan that is on the way to becoming the basis for the EU's strategy towards Ukraine and the security of the region. The plan includes increasing sanctions pressure on Russia with a full embargo on Russian gas and oil; actively attracting allies outside Europe, from Asia and the Pacific region, to the anti-Russian coalition; accelerated deliveries of long-range missiles and modern air defense systems; development of the EU's defense potential, in order to reduce dependence on the United States; stricter control over the countries through which Russia circumvents sanctions, such as those in Central Asia.
Time for decisive action
Europe is facing an existential threat - Moscow continues its aggression, the United States is demonstrating increasing unpredictability, and the old security mechanisms are breaking down. Ukraine today is not only a victim of Russian aggression, but also the guarantee of Europe's existence.
Victory over Kiev or a compromise peace imposed by Moscow will pave the way for the Kremlin's further expansion and an even more destructive war that will go beyond the continent.
That is why Europe does not just need politicians with great ambitions, but real leaders who can unite the continent, build a clear strategy and make the EU an independent geopolitical player.
Is Emmanuel Macron such a leader?
So far, his initiatives to strengthen European security look more like an attempt to satisfy his political positions than a consistent strategy.
The issue of creating a single European army, regularly raised by the French president, is still at the level of declarations without any real steps taken. For example, representatives of Polish embassies in some European capitals believe that Paris is violating the “hierarchy“ within the EU itself. It turned out that although Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk went to Paris along with the leaders of the largest players in the EU, Warsaw does not understand why these summits are not held in Poland.
From January 1, 2025, the presidency of the Council of the EU for six months by right and rotation has been assigned to the Republic of Poland - it is its President Andrzej Duda, Prime Minister Donald Tusk and their teams that should hold meetings on the most important issues of the union. And in Paris, the meeting place should not be the Elysee Palace or the French Foreign Ministry, but the Polish Embassy - this is the procedure for a country's six-month presidency of the EU.
But so far, we are seeing the opposite effect, which benefits Russian President Vladimir Putin. Macron's attempts to alternately admonish Putin and hold separate negotiations in Paris ultimately have only a disintegrating effect for the entire EU.
Will the authorities in Paris manage to reverse the trend of political and economic crisis in France and effectively lead the European Union towards a unified defense doctrine and sustainable support for Ukraine? Or will Europe have to look for new leaders who will not only talk about unity, but also act decisively? The answer to these questions could determine the future of the entire continent.
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The author is a member of The Association of European Journalists - Bulgaria