It is not in the interest of the South Korean political system to postpone the trial of former President Yun Seok-yul, but at the same time it must follow all the necessary procedures characteristic of a democracy, an international observer writes for Kazinform.
The case may continue until June. The story of the introduction of martial law in South Korea on December 3, 2024 by President Yun Seok-yul and its subsequent repeal by the parliament still remains relevant. The local Constitutional Court continues to consider all the circumstances surrounding the incident. In addition, this court has 180 days from the date of the impeachment of the president, which occurred on December 14, 2024. More precisely, the countdown began on December 16, when the relevant impeachment documents were received in court.
On January 3, 2025, the police made an unsuccessful attempt to arrest Yoon Seok Yul, which was thwarted due to the resistance of his security guards. This situation in itself indicates serious tension. Because his security guards were state-owned, and their resistance to official action after the impeachment speaks to the complexity of the situation. On January 15, 2025, he was finally arrested, and on January 26, the prosecutor's office brought formal charges against him.
In February 2025, hearings of the participants in these events will be held. It is not yet known whether the Constitutional Court will use the full 180 days, in which case the proceedings will continue until June of this year.
It is possible that the court will try to speed up the process, because the process itself is clearly creating tension in South Korean society. On February 8, the police began checking information about possible rallies in front of the Constitutional Court building with threats to disrupt public order at the February 11 session and, as a result, mobilized additional forces.
In addition, former President Yun has his supporters. Although, according to polls, 75% of citizens condemn the coup attempt, there are still supporters of Yun and conventional right-wing views in South Korea. It is worth recalling that in his address on December 3, he emphasized the conditional leftist threat. At the time, this sounded like “eradicating pro-North Korean forces and protecting constitutional order“. On January 19, Yun's supporters rioted in front of the courthouse in the eastern district of Seoul after it issued a warrant for Yun's arrest. This was a necessary legal decision following his arrest on January 15. On February 10, 63 people were indicted for their involvement in the January 19 riots.
It is also worth noting that the former president's defense, among the arguments presented in his favor, appealed the 2024 U.S. Supreme Court decision in Trump v. United States. Based on this, the defense argues that Yun should not be punished for his actions as president. Although this is still a precedent from another country's history, Yun's defense still uses this argument.
Given Donald Trump's election victory and the general trend towards the growing influence of right-wing conservative forces, this may be important. Especially given the ties that the United States has had with South Korea since the end of World War II. But we must also take into account the high dependence of the South Korean economy on exports, which amounted to $ 683 billion by the end of 2024. In the context of the turbulence in the global economy due to the new US policy under Trump, it could be a problem if he suddenly turns his attention to the situation with Yun.
Therefore, it is not in the interest of the South Korean political system to delay the trial of the former president. But at the same time, it must follow all the necessary procedures characteristic of a democracy. Here it is necessary to take into account that in South Korea it is very energetic and compliance with all the details and formalities is the most important element of the whole structure.
In general, this whole story is interesting both from the point of view of the results of development and the possible prospects of the existing model of political and economic development in South Korea, which has demonstrated impressive successes at least since 1987, when the era of dictatorial regimes there ended. It is important that the South Korean experience as a whole is part of those processes in the countries of Southeast Asia that are called the Asian model of modernization.
Moreover, this has always been one of the most successful examples of such modernization. In addition to South Korea, Japan and Singapore also went through it. South Korea stood out from this group of countries because it had a very energetic democracy. For example, in Japan, despite many incidents involving politicians, such as the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2022, the political system in the post-war period was still stable.
In Singapore, the People's Action Party, led by Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew, has been in power since the establishment of an independent state in 1963. In 2024, his son Lee Hsien Loong gave way to Lawrence Wong as Prime Minister.
South Korea has had several dictators, including its first president, Syngman Rhee. Then there were military dictators - presidents Park Chung-hee, Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo. In fact, the transition to democracy is associated with the personality of the latter. He won the elections in 1987 against future presidents Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung.
From that moment on, a period of very active political life began in South Korea. This was due to the specific development of the country during the time of Generals Park Chung-hee and Chun Doo-hwan. It consisted of the oligarchization of the economy. South Korea's rapid economic growth is associated with the activities of the chaebols. Translated from Korean, this means "rich family" or "monopoly".
The state helped the chaebols with preferential loans, provided market protection and access to foreign markets, primarily the US market. In response, the chaebols ensured the concentration of resources for the production of products that are competitive in foreign markets. Moreover, practically any product - from famous televisions and cars to ships, tanks and artillery guns.
In fact, this is what ensured the success of the South Korean economy. The chaebols in South Korea generally survived even during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which affected the rapidly developing economies of a number of Asian countries. Many companies failed to adapt to the new conditions and were acquired by more successful competitors. For example, Hyundai absorbed the Kia concern, and the Daewoo company was closed.
After the 1997 crisis The monopolization of the South Korean economy has only intensified. According to various sources, only a few chaebol conglomerates control up to 80% of the country's economy. Among them, the 5 largest stand out: Samsung, Hyundai, SK, LG, Lotte.
Families in South Korea invest huge amounts of money in the education of their children. This is a serious and huge business. But very few manage to achieve their goal. According to various sources, chaebols account for up to 80% of GDP, but provide jobs for only 10% of the entire workforce. Naturally, they have high requirements for applicants. For young people who do not get a job in chaebols, the unsuccessful experience of their investments in education creates disappointment and complexes.
Indirectly, this also affects the mood in society. In addition, half of the population lives in the metropolitan area of Seoul. This is the highest level of urbanization, which changes the social environment. Young people often react to the enormous stress of high expectations from family and society with increased nihilism, including an unwillingness and inability to follow the path of the super-disciplined workforce that their parents took.
South Korea has the lowest birth rate of any country in the world. The TFR (total fertility rate) here is 0.7 children per woman. In early 2025, the country had 6 million children out of a population of 52 million. According to demographers, if this trend continues, in 4 generations (120 years) South Korea will have only 40 thousand children. It is clear that everything can change, but for the better?
But oligarchization also has its political consequences. The families that own the chaebols cannot help but influence politics. They have always been closely connected to the political elites, especially in the era of dictatorships. But even after their graduation, these ties remained. South Korea's economy is heavily dependent on the success of the chaebol, especially in foreign markets. Therefore, any government must support them.