The new US President Donald Trump acts with a swing. This is visible to the naked eye. If nothing else, he has made the world agenda fall into his rhythm. Today I say, tomorrow I want results... A good approach in business. But the same thing has proven to work in international politics. Provoke action to expect results. And it works. You can see it. Trump spoke with Putin and they agreed on the phone. Then French President Emmanuel Macron organized two meetings in Paris, and then visited the US. Macron is losing ground domestically in France, trying to compensate for this with an aggressive international policy. We'll see if he succeeds. But in the EU, something else is interesting. Is there another bright politician currently who would dare to do this... In Germany, Merz will replace Scholz. US Vice President De Vance refused to meet with Scholz during the Munich Conference because “… you are the chancellor for days“. And Scholz simply remained silent. Britain is no longer in the EU, and there is no prominent figure there at the moment.
Which European leader can take the stage right now!?
And here is a field for Macron to express himself. The French president is in the US, and Ursula von der Leyen is in Kiev to show support. What would von der Leyen look like at a negotiating table with Putin and Trump. The question is rather rhetorical. And then why is Europe missing from the negotiating table.
Bulgaria
The US is insisting on a quick settlement of this conflict through diplomacy. What we also saw with the visit of European leaders to Ukraine is the other approach – continuation of military actions and seeking through them to bring Ukraine into a position of strength for possible further negotiations. But the entire course of the war so far shows that this is a utopian hope, it will cause many more victims, even more destruction and devastation of Ukraine, which Europe will eventually have to pay for. This was said by President Rumen Radev a few days ago. The head of state continues to hold to his opinion about the conflict in Ukraine, that diplomacy is needed. Diplomacy, fine. But what kind. For the EU, talks about Ukraine may be diplomacy, but for the US and Trump this is pure trade, a deal.
What kind of diplomacy are we talking about, since Trump has plainly said that he wants a deal. When Trump talks about a deal and wants Ukraine's underground riches, the Kremlin sneers sarcastically. It must be so, because what comes out of it - Ukraine has lost underground resources (the stuff that is in the occupied territories), and will give the rest to the US and Trump. Diplomacy or trade, and maybe influence.
And another thing, how much exactly does the US rely on diplomacy, after initially negotiating with Russia, but without the participation of the country to which this diplomacy refers.
Rumen Radev is very right when he says that "an unprecedented in scale and dynamics change is taking place in the security environment and growing unpredictability in the geopolitical space". The Munich Conference showed the contradictions between the EU and the US.
Who will take what
When we talk about the US, there is simply no way to bypass the “Lend-Lease“ law. The US poured billions into the war in Ukraine, that's a fact. And now they want “rent“. (b.r. - the "Lend-Lease" law is expressed as follows. Military equipment worth 100 billion dollars is provided (formally speaking, to make the calculations easier). Of these 100 billion dollars, equipment worth 40 billion dollars is destroyed at the front and it is not paid for. But the remaining 60 billion dollars hang as debt, rent, etc. They are subject to return) When there is no money, there are underground treasures. Trump wants to get back the invested 500 billion dollars so that his country does not look "stupid".
It is difficult to imagine that Russia will withdraw from the occupied territory in Ukraine. So Putin has also taken what he wants.
The EU claims that they gave about 130 billion euros, but in Europe there are 230 billion euros of Russian assets seized. If it comes to confiscation, the EU will also get back what was given, it will have guaranteed its money. And does anyone ask Ukraine what it wants…
This is what happens when the big ones crush the small ones – or how the world becomes just a deal.