The exact text of the agreement, which provides for the provision of Ukrainian natural resources to the US, is still unknown. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that the two sides have reached an agreement. However, before it enters into force, it must be ratified by the Ukrainian parliament, ARD specifies.
What does the agreement between the US and Ukraine contain?
According to various sources, the Ukrainian president has rejected the initial version of the agreement, which stated that Ukraine was obliged to deliver raw materials worth a total of $500 billion as compensation for the aid sent for the war. Zelensky then said that he would not sign something "that ten generations of Ukrainians will have to pay back" by giving the US a large part of Ukraine's natural resources.
It seems that the US has backed down, we read further in the ARD publication. According to some reports, the two countries will create a jointly managed fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Kiev will contribute 50% of future revenues from raw materials to it and will participate with ports and other infrastructure. In addition to rare earth metals, which are important for the production of high-tech products, we are also talking about oil and gas, which will be extracted jointly, ARD quotes an unnamed representative of the Ukrainian government.
The issue of guarantees
According to President Zelensky, however, the important issue of security guarantees that Ukraine should receive in return has not yet been finally resolved. Zelensky intends to discuss this issue in detail with Trump.
However, it is not yet entirely clear whether the two sides will actually sign the agreement. The expectations were that this would happen tomorrow (28.2) in Washington, but in the meantime Zelensky clarified that this is only a framework agreement, while the actual contract would be initialed later. It will also discuss the specific financial parameters. It is this final version of the agreement that will have to be ratified by the Ukrainian parliament, ARD points out, referring to the latest information from Kiev.
What does Trump expect from Ukraine's raw materials?
First of all, the sale of raw materials can bring in a lot of money. However, it is not yet entirely clear whether the US will gain access to the resources in question. It is possible that the US will be granted the right to purchase the raw materials with priority - possibly at very favorable prices. Jürgen Mattes of the German Economic Institute is critical of this option, as it would be a special privilege for the US that other countries, and therefore the EU, would not be entitled to. He also sees this as a form of protectionism, ARD notes.
Trump called the planned agreement a "trillion-dollar deal" and repeated his criticism of his predecessor Joe Biden: he had "thrown money around like it had no value. We want that money back," Trump said.
According to economic expert Mattes, however, it is not out of the question that Trump will act "less selfishly" than he initially seemed. "The agreement provides for Ukraine's participation in its own reconstruction. That is logical and correct," Mattes told ARD. The Europeans will also benefit, as this will reduce their costs for rebuilding Ukraine. The World Bank already estimates these costs at at least $524 billion over the next ten years.
What raw materials does Ukraine actually have to offer?
Ukraine has a lot to offer, including many of the so-called critical raw materials that few countries can supply and which are almost impossible to replace with others. The EU has identified 34 such key raw materials, used in the production of electric cars, mobile phones, missile systems, turbines, laser technology and other high-tech electronic devices. The group of rare earth metals also falls under the critical raw materials.
According to the Ukrainian Institute of Geology, the country has rare earth elements such as lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, erbium and yttrium. EU-funded research also indicates that Ukraine has reserves of scandium. However, there are no more specific data on the matter, as they are secret.
20% of the world's resources of some rare raw materials
According to the World Economic Forum, Ukraine is also a potential supplier of lithium, beryllium, manganese, gallium, zirconium, graphite, apatite, fluorite and nickel. According to the State Geological Survey, the country has one of the largest confirmed reserves of lithium in Europe, estimated at 500,000 tonnes. This trace element is essential for the production of batteries, ceramics and glass. Ukrainian reserves of graphite, an important component of batteries for electric vehicles and nuclear reactors, make up 20% of the world's resources.
According to the scientific service of the German Bundestag, the value of raw materials such as titanium, iron, nickel and lithium could be between 3 and 11.5 trillion US dollars. The country also has significant resources of traditional fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. However, even these sources are not fully exploited or are located in areas under Russian control. Five percent of the world's mineral resources are located in Ukraine. Ukraine ranks among the top ten countries in the world in terms of several raw materials.
Are these raw materials mined in Ukraine?
According to mining and economic experts, there are currently no commercially exploited rare earth mines in Ukraine. China is the world's largest producer of rare earth elements and many other important minerals, but it is not a reliable source of supply for the United States due to tensions over import tariffs.
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy, the government is working with Western allies on projects to extract critical raw materials. Kiev estimates the investment potential in this area at about $12 billion to $15 billion by 2033. The State Geological Survey said the government is preparing about 100 sites to be licensed and jointly developed, ARD also reported.
However, the much bigger problem is not the lack of mining infrastructure, but Russian aggression. According to estimates by the Ukrainian think tank We Build Ukraine and the National Institute for Strategic Studies, about 40% of metal resources are under Russian control. The data are from the first half of 2024, but after that Russian troops advanced further into the Donetsk region. The majority of the coal deposits that supplied the steel industry before the war are also located in the eastern part of the country and are currently inaccessible.
During the war, Russia occupied at least two Ukrainian lithium deposits - one in Donetsk and another in Zaporizhia region in the southeast of the country. In Kirovohrad region, central Ukraine, there are other lithium deposits that are under the control of Kiev, the ARD publication also says.
Authors: Sabrina Fritz ARD | Gregory Dauber ARD