Don't talk to him about "post-communist" countries, the Visegrad Group ("this union is dead") or even the Weimar Triangle ("triangle of disillusionment"). Amid the many challenges facing Europe, and while Eastern countries "share the existential fear of being wiped off the map of the world by Russia", "it is time to move beyond post-Cold War clichés".
This is according to Jarosław Kuisz, founder of the Polish weekly Kultura Liberalna, senior fellow at the Zentrum Liberale Moderne in Berlin and associate researcher at the CNRS. While the arrival of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the helm of the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union raises new hopes for Hungary's Viktor Orbán, the author of "Poland's New Politics" (book of 2024 according to Foreign Affairs) and the bestseller "Post-Traumatic Sovereignty" explains why, in his opinion, Warsaw "cannot afford a policy of confrontation with Washington". "If necessary, Donald Tusk will remain in the shadow of Donald Trump, like other small and medium-sized countries", he warns. In an interview with the French newspaper L'Express, the political scientist describes a Europe that vacillates between the logic of "Every man for himself" and that of "More Europe", faced with a "neo-imperialist" triangle made up of Vladimir Putin's Russia, Xi Jinping's China and Donald Trump's United States. Convinced that "the style and content of Washington's policies will influence European democracies", Jarosław Kuisz predicts "a wave of authoritarian imitation in Europe of the choices made by the United States".
L'EXPRESS: From January, Poland will take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU under the motto: "Security, Europe!" - as it seems at the level of energy, economy, food, healthcare and, of course, defense. How do you understand it?
JAROSLAV KUIS: I would say that these political spaces are united around one concept: sovereignty. Because in the collective consciousness of the peoples neighboring Russia, an important message is encoded: sovereignty precedes democracy. That is why the defense of independence is considered crucial in all the aspects you mention. When we talk about security, we think of the independence of Tallinn in Estonia or Warsaw. But let's beware of semantic misunderstandings. The defense of sovereignty is not necessarily synonymous with nationalism. I have examined this topic in more detail in my book "The New Politics of Poland: A Case of Post-Traumatic Sovereignty" (Manchester University Press). Countries at risk of being erased from the map of the world are focusing their policies on the issue of independence. That is why pro-democratic politicians like former Estonian Prime Minister and new Vice-President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas, Czech President Petr Pavel or Donald Tusk can advocate for the defense of their countries, without it being a matter of nationalism.
L"EXPRESS: At a time of numerous challenges for Europe, eyes are turned to potential allies that Warsaw can count on, and nothing seems certain...
J. KUIS: The European Union has been suffering geopolitically since February 2022 and the invasion of Ukraine, which marked the beginning of open pressure emanating from the neo-imperialist triangle including Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and now Donald Trump. But our answers are in two directions: "Every man for himself" - that is, a maximum return to nation states with their borders and illusions of defense. Or "More Europe" - that is, opposing the predatory ambitions of the neo-imperialist triangle. Practically all countries, including France and Poland, move between these two trends. The slogan "Security, Europe!" is an attempt to unify Europe. Because today the Old Continent increasingly resembles a puzzle of separate pieces. Political tensions have brought populists to power in countries such as Italy, Belgium and Finland. Differences in opinion have weakened the Berlin-Paris tandem. In this sense, the other part of the continent - Central and Eastern Europe - is undergoing a mirror process of defragmentation. We are all very divided. It is time to change our political reading glasses. Western Europe has difficulty reading Central and Eastern Europe. This is a problem because it obviously complicates communication in times of crisis. For example, we sometimes still hear people talking about "post-communist" countries as if they were a single bloc united around the same program. It's just incredible...
L" EXPRESS: What exactly does this mean?
J. KUIS: That the models for reading and understanding Europe are outdated. Here is an example: in countries like Hungary and Slovakia, pro-Putin populists are in power. In Poland and the Czech Republic, on the other hand, anti-Putin democrats are in power. However, the four countries formed the so-called Visegrad Group, which served to describe the region in a rather superficial way. Today, this alliance is dead. Especially since Viktor Orbán interfered in Polish domestic politics and sabotaged the restoration of the rule of law after populism. It is therefore reasonable to assume that under Donald Tusk there will be no Polish-Hungarian reconciliation. In reality, this tension between Warsaw and Budapest is an echo of the global ideological war - something that is difficult to see if we remain anchored to this concept of the Visegrad Group. In the past, communism fought against capitalism. Today, national populism is trying to defeat liberal democracy. For this reason, it seems to me that the time has come for Europe to move beyond the clichés established after the end of the Cold War. As long as we are divided, the most important issues cannot be resolved unanimously.
L" EXPRESS: What specifically should be done in such a case?
J. KUISH: First of all, we must recognize that new alliances are being born, emerging within the framework of the EU. But since 2022, an alliance has emerged - perhaps quite unexpected for Western Europe - that of countries that share direct borders with Russia. Namely, Finland, the Baltic states, to Poland, Ukraine, of course, Romania and Moldova. In fact, this regrouping has been going on for at least two years, and there is a good reason: all these countries share the existential fear of being wiped off the map of the world by Russia, such as they have not experienced since the 18th century. Nothing to do with any Russophobia! These countries are united by the events of 1939, when from Finland to Romania they found themselves divided between Russia and Nazi Germany. This vital issue has once again become relevant in people's minds. That is why, with his motto - "Security, Europe!" - Donald Tusk is addressing these allies. This is the basis of the new alliances in Europe: they are based on a common history and common geopolitical interests and problems.
L"EXPRESS: What does Donald Trump's arrival in the White House mean for Donald Tusk's presidency?
J. KUISH: Ukraine is still at war, especially on the border with Poland, and the outcome of this situation is unpredictable. It is important for many European countries to understand that protection from the United States is vital. Donald Tusk cannot afford a policy of confrontation with Washington. So I think he will try to establish the best possible relations with the United States and, if necessary, remain in the shadow of Donald Trump, like other small and medium-sized countries. Let me be clear: this is a situation that is ideologically dramatic for people of Tusk's generation, influenced by a phenomenon that I call the "post-communist myth of the West." In the West before 1989, but also for a long time after, everything seemed politically, economically, legally and even morally more enviable than in the USSR. These illusions that were so important in fueling post-communist modernization are now far behind us. We are in a period of great ideological disorientation. And, in addition, we will probably see a wave of authoritarian mimicry in Europe in response to the choices made by the United States. I am convinced that there will be a wave of "little Trumps" on the Old Continent. The style and content of Washington's policies will affect European democracies.
L"EXPRESS: Can Western Europe meet the challenge of Eastern Europe?
J. KUIS: In Eastern Europe, we are born pessimistic pro-Europeans. When the Romanian philosopher Cioran spoke about the disadvantages of birth, he probably had in mind our part of the Old Continent. "Europe is not lost while we are alive." These are the words with which Tusk began his speech at the European Parliament in Brussels. It was a reference to the opening words of the Polish anthem (ed. note: "Poland is not yet dead") and, we should add, the Ukrainian anthem. From Warsaw's point of view, however, this is a dramatic, even tragic address. The anthem was written in 1797, just after the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was suddenly wiped off the map two years earlier. And now, in 2025, citing these words, Tusk is trying to appeal to the conscience of politicians in Western European countries. I recently participated in a European debate with the eminent French historian Patrick Boucheron. This exchange of views allowed me to see that historians are more empathetic and aware of the gravity of the traumas of Eastern Europe. But what about politicians? There is no longer any reason to admire French or German politics from an ideological point of view. And at the same time, it is so important for us that the West does not doubt itself! The European Union, the democratic values developed after the Cold War, the achievements of liberal democracy are fragile successes that must be constantly defended. Meanwhile, in France, books about the inevitable decline of the West, such as those by Emmanuel Todt, are becoming bestsellers. This is a pity.
L"EXPRESS: Does the Weimar Triangle of France, Germany and Poland still make sense?
Ya. KUISH: So far, it is a triangle of disappointment. When Donald Tusk took office in December 2023, the Weimar Union was a long-awaited option in liberal opposition circles, who thought it would create a pro-European counterweight to populism. But it didn’t really work, because the Berlin-Paris locomotive is no longer in operation. German politics is in crisis, although the upcoming elections should resolve this situation. But the parliamentary elections in France showed that calling elections can worsen a crisis situation... In addition, there remains a certain distrust of the policies of Berlin and Paris for reasons well described by Sylvie Kaufmann in her book "The Blinded". For years, France and Germany have been trying to come to an agreement with Russia, without caring about the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and even at their expense. Today, this is still an important element. In fact, in the long run, the democrats and liberals in power in Germany and France are neither strong nor stable. In Paris, as in Berlin, it is already being openly said that in three or four years the pro-Putin far right could win the next elections. Is it possible to conduct foreign policy in Tallinn, Vilnius or Warsaw without thinking about the consequences of such a scenario? After all, no one can say whether liberal democracy will outlive Emmanuel Macron or the possible future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz... Under these conditions, a naive alliance is not possible. In his book "Rules of Democracy" Jan-Werner Müller called for the fight against populism today not to turn into naive optimism. We must maintain a minimum of hope, but act wisely.
L"EXPRESS: Can Poland take advantage of this to assert its leadership?
J. KUIS: This is certainly an attractive prospect for Poland in the 21st century. It is clear that Europe's center of gravity is shifting somewhat to the east. First of all, in terms of arms spending. But can we seriously think about a leading position in Europe if Eurosceptics take power in Paris and Berlin? Or, more likely, make it more difficult to exercise power? These are fundamental questions. How can it consolidate its position as the leader of the Union when, here and now, the security of Ukraine, the Baltic states and, ultimately, Poland depends on the United States? Moreover, Tusk's government is not that strong either. This is a coalition government and the outcome of the next presidential election in May is far from certain.
L" EXPRESS: If the conservative candidate supported by the "Law and Justice" (PiS) party, Karol Nawrocki, is elected president in May, how will this affect the rest of Europe?
J. KUIS: This would be a serious blow to the program of overcoming populism after the rule of Jarosław Kaczyński. In the event of a defeat of Rafal Trzaszkowski, the candidate of the ruling party "Civil Platform", Tusk would receive executive power, but he would be weakened, as Emmanuel Macron is now. The legal chaos in Poland, from which it has not yet emerged, will only worsen. On the other hand, if he becomes president, Nawrocki would do everything possible to hinder Tusk's power. Undoubtedly, the echoes of the Polish situation will be felt in Europe. The only thing that will not change is defense spending. However, Trzaszkowski is currently leading in the opinion polls.