Putin can no longer stop being amazed. The West is falling apart before his eyes - and America, the only power that Putin respects anyway, fulfills all his demands without asking for anything in return, writes Dirk Emmerich.
There are days that change the course of history. One of them was February 28, 2025. It's like a new game of dice, when they have just been thrown, but it is not known how they will fall and what numbers they will show. At this moment, however, nothing more can be changed.
This comparison with the current situation in the world is both right and wrong. Right, because no one knows what the world will actually look like in a few months or a year. Wrong, because US President Donald Trump leaves nothing to chance, but follows a clear plan.
Trump wants a new world order
Trump wants to establish a new world order. International law will be replaced by the power of the big players in world politics. And the big players are the United States, China and Russia. Everyone else is irrelevant. Everyone who is not among the big players must comply with them. Those who disagree will be punished and humiliated. The scandal in the White House on February 28 (during talks between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. - ed. note) happened exactly according to this scenario. The first victim was Zelensky.
“You're fired“ - the message was unequivocal. Donald Trump knows what he's doing. He's been doing it for years on his reality TV show. But now it's not just about Zelensky. It is also a signal to Europe: you could be next if you do not accept the new rules of the game.
At the Munich Security Conference, US Vice President James David Vance shocked US allies for the first time by attacking European democracies in the harshest possible way. But what initially seemed like a threat to end the transatlantic partnership was actually carried out on February 28.
The transatlantic alliance is coming to an end
The consequences of all this cannot yet be predicted. The dice are still rolling on the table. It is now not very clear whether NATO will exist in its current form in six months. After the shock of Vance's speech in Munich, Europe seems to have realized this.
In London, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron called for the creation of a “coalition of the willing” (in support of Ukraine. - ed.) and want to develop their own ceasefire plan. They also want to provide guarantees for Kiev's security. All this must be worked out quickly and discussed again with Donald Trump. Whether he will want to do it, however, is not clear.
It is quite possible that the Trump team is already working out the details of a much more far-reaching deal with Moscow. Trump has already said that he is ready to revive economic relations with Russia and return President Vladimir Putin to the G-8. The White House host has also said that he does not want to deploy American troops in Ukraine.
In recent weeks, Putin has been amazed. He simply watches what is happening, without having to do anything. The West is crumbling before his eyes - and America, the only power that Putin respects anyway, fulfills all his demands without asking for anything in return. Ultimately, Putin may demand even more.
A turning point for Europe. Who will take on the role of leader?
Germany has not yet found its role in the new system of geostrategic coordinates. The desired Berlin-Paris axis as the engine of a united and decisive Europe is now being transformed into a London-Paris axis. Berlin is in the role of a spectator. At the London meeting on March 2, Starmer and Macron sat together with Zelensky at the presidium table, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz four seats away. Starmer and Macron presented the resolutions of the meeting. Scholz said only that the discussion was good and informative.
Friedrich Merz, the future Federal Chancellor, was not present in London at all. This may have been true from a protocol point of view, but he certainly should have been at the negotiating table given the extraordinary circumstances. Olaf Scholz could have easily solved the issue, but he clearly didn't want to. Scholz gives the impression of someone who doesn't want to admit that he will have to leave his post, he repeats his long-known positions and continues to speak hesitantly: “The initiative is with France and Britain, who haven't just had elections and are more open about the military presence“.
Friedrich Merz, of course, would not express himself in this way. He is pressing the participants in the negotiations to quickly reach an agreement on the formation of a new government. Berlin has no time to waste, otherwise it will continue to occupy unimportant places at the negotiating table - not in the presidium.
There are days that change the course of history. One such day was February 28, 2025.
*Dirk Emmerich is a correspondent for the German TV channels n-tv and RTL. He lived and worked for many years in Moscow and Washington and was a correspondent for n-tv in Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and other countries in conflict.
**This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DW as a whole.