In his prophetic book from last year "America Last: A Century of Romance between the American Right and Foreign Dictators" Jacob Heilbrunn highlighted the fascination of the American "right wing" for dictators and strongmen of the Old Continent, from Kaiser Wilhelm II to Vladimir Putin, passing through Mussolini, Franco and the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán.
"Donald Trump considers democracy to be fundamentally weak and corrupt, therefore at a lower level than authoritarianism", explains the author. Heilbrunn, who did not vote for Trump, does not at all resemble a leftist activist. On the contrary, he is the editor-in-chief of The National Interest magazine, launched in 1985. by Irving Kristol, considered the founder of American neoconservatism. While Donald Trump declares his intention to bring peace to Ukraine and divide the world into "spheres of influence", geopoliticians believe that only a recession can destroy the US president's supporters and stop him from moving towards authoritarianism.
In an interview with the French newspaper L"Express, the American geopolitician predicted growing global instability in favor of Russia and to the detriment of the US
L"EXPRESS: How do you interpret Donald Trump's position on Ukraine and his dialogue with Vladimir Putin?
JACOB HEILBRUN: Donald Trump wants to make a deal on the backs of the Ukrainians. Their country will suffer the same fate as Czechoslovakia at the Munich Conference in 1938. During his upcoming meeting in Saudi Arabia with Putin, he will confirm the dismemberment of Ukraine. Besides the Ukrainian case, he is in the mood to say "Arrivederci" to the Europeans - "Bye-bye", "Auf wiedersehen", "Au revoir"... He does not like Europe, which he sees as an economic competitor. He does not like NATO either. Did you see how Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth lectured the Europeans this week in Brussels? "NATO needs to be stronger... not a club of diplomats", he explained even before the meeting. And he added: "Ukraine is not our problem, it is yours". Not a very kind attitude, especially towards an ally...
L"EXPRESS: Is Trump's entourage really happy with this confrontation with America's traditional allies?
J. HEILBRUN: Trump's supporters are certainly happy. They love this posture. They are delighted with the shock therapy that the president is giving the American administration. This week he fired all the members of the board of directors of the Kennedy Center, which is a reference cultural institution in Washington, D.C., run in a nonpartisan manner. But being nonpartisan, for Trump, already means being "woke." In the field of foreign policy, his room for maneuver is even greater than on the domestic stage, where certain precautions, especially in the area of justice, can slow him down. So, internationally, he is having a great time. That's how he thinks he looks like a great leader and that's how he believes he inspires respect. And this is just the beginning... There are many more surprises ahead, because that is the nature of Donald Trump's "show," which is governing through spectacle. I wouldn't be surprised if he puts pressure on Taiwan in some way soon. This second term will not be like the first: Trump 2 will be much more radical than Trump 1.
L" EXPRESS: What consequences will all this have for the world order?
J. HEILBRUN: First, Russia is becoming stronger. Having strengthened and established his imperialist approach, Putin will not hesitate to strike at the Baltic states. On a global scale, a Trump presidency will create - and is already creating - great instability, both financial and military. All of this will end badly, especially for the United States, which will no longer be seen as a reliable ally. We are shooting ourselves in the foot. This is self-defeating. Donald Trump feeds the fantasy that America can simultaneously turn inward and remain a superpower. The reality, however, is different. The United States will become a declining power. The country will still have its usual advantages: an abundance of natural resources, a dominant economic power and the absence of a military threat on its borders. America will still be a great power, but no longer a superpower. Canadians have already started to withdraw from our country, which is affecting the tourism industry. There will be other failures. In fact, Trump's destabilizing policies are leading us straight into an economic recession. This is actually the only thing that can serve as a wake-up call for Americans. When they see that Trump's economic promises are not being fulfilled, they will hold him accountable.
L"EXPRESS: How do you explain Trump's antipathy towards Europe?
J. HEILBRUN: He prefers to work with authoritarian regimes rather than democracies. He sincerely admires Vladimir Putin. In this respect, he has not changed. He himself intends to act as an authoritarian leader and divide the world, starting with Ukraine. Unfortunately, few things can stop him.
L"EXPRESS: Haven't the hundreds of thousands of deaths in Ukraine changed his opinion of Putin?
J. HEILBRUN: He doesn't care. To him, they are just numbers. In the same way, he doesn't pay much attention to the 2 million people living in Gaza. It is important for him to make loud statements, to attract media attention, to show himself as a great leader. Trump is an authoritarian leader at heart. He also admires China. After the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 he explained in an interview with Playboy that the crackdown has allowed the Chinese government to show the "power of force". He added that, on the contrary, the US "is currently perceived as weak" and that "the rest of the world spits on them".
Trump is not a democrat. He is authoritarian by nature. Therefore, the world is ruled by three authoritarian leaders: Trump, Putin and Xi Jinping. In addition, the 47th US president is seeking to emulate his Russian counterpart in order to stay in power. He will soon put forward the idea that he could serve another term after this one. And this, despite the fact that the constitution prohibits it. He began by attacking civil servants and mass dismissals of bureaucrats. Soon he will attack the military. The Pentagon will also be purged.
L"EXPRESS: What can Europe do?
J. HEILBRUN: Europe has not adapted to the new reality. It did not believe and did not see the profound transformation that was emerging. Europeans could not believe that Trump wanted to erase the past and start from scratch. The only hope is for Europe to unite and for Brussels to speak with one voice. Like the Musketeers: "One for all and all for one!" In addition, we must hope that the Franco-German couple will regain its color again with the election of the conservative Friedrich Merz as chancellor, because he has a firmer position than Olaf Scholz in terms of support for Ukraine. Europeans have assets, especially economic ones. For example, they have the ability to negotiate tariffs. If they oppose Trump, then he will back down. This is what always happens with "bullies". When you resist them, they reveal their true face - the face of weakness.