The pressure surrounding the "rare earth" agreement to be concluded between Ukraine and the US has turned peace talks into a simple trade deal. Disputes over numbers, mutual accusations, reversals, suspension of military aid...
What if, in the end, the "big deal" promised by Donald Trump is just a smokescreen hiding other interests while Washington pushes its European allies into unprecedented strategic dependence?
“You don't have strong cards in your hands!“ – Donald Trump repeated on February 28 in the Oval Office, wagging an accusing finger at Volodymyr Zelensky. Less than an hour later, the Ukrainian president was forced to leave the White House without signing the contract for the exploitation of strategic Ukrainian minerals in exchange for continued American support. Another episode in the bluff game presented by the Trump administration as the “Grand Deal“.
As early as February 4, Donald Trump announced that he would negotiate with Ukraine for the extraction of rare earth metals worth $500 billion, as a guarantee for the $350 billion that the United States claims to have provided since the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022. This amount was immediately disputed by Kiev, which estimated the aid received at $175 billion. But Zelensky was not surprised.
On February 7, in his secure office, he “played his card“ with “critical minerals“ to Reuters reporters, pointing to a chart with different colors. Lithium, graphite, titanium – needed to make batteries for electric cars, solar panels. And also lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium… the so-called “rare earth elements” – a group of 17 substances vital to the production of wind turbines, computers, smartphones, hard drives… His rhetoric is well-prepared.
In fact, Zelensky has been touring his allies for months with documents and charts in hand. They are part of his “Plan for Victory”. He proposes a strategy to “protect Ukrainian resources”, along with incentives for “international investment in sustainable peace for Ukraine”. Everything is provided for, including the promise that the confidential application will be shared only with “selected partners”. And the resources? “A very attractive argument for Donald Trump and his administration,” confirms Daniel Vajdzic in Politico, president of Yorktown Solutions, a lobbying firm that defends the Ukrainian cause in Washington.
On February 12, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant was sent to Kiev to present a memorandum of understanding for the agreement. It envisages the creation of a fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine, fully controlled by the Americans, 50% of which would be financed by Ukrainian production, and the other half would be used to repay US aid. Zelensky refused. For him, accepting the aid as debt would mean opening a “Pandora’s box” – which would force Kiev to return all the funds allocated by international donors. Also, the memorandum does not contain any security guarantees.
“This is not a serious conversation,” Zelensky declared the next day. “I can't sell my country!“
The conflict in the White House, followed by the freezing of military aid, only deepens the tension, while Donald Trump seems to be no longer in a hurry to sign the “Grand Deal“ and sends his special envoy Steve Witkoff to Saudi Arabia to negotiate with the Ukrainian president “a framework for a peace agreement and a ceasefire“.