August will mark 80 years since the US dropped the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War II. It was long considered the consensus that nuclear weapons were a deterrent that would ensure that they would never be used again.
But does the deterrent work? For a long time, Europe believed that it was protected by US nuclear weapons. President Donald Trump has not yet questioned the nuclear umbrella, but trust in the reliability of the United States is decreasing with each of its next moves, writes ARD.
Which countries have nuclear weapons?
Five countries officially possess nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, Great Britain, France and China. It is believed that four other countries also have nuclear weapons without confirming it: India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel.
According to the Stockholm Institute SIPRI, there are just over 12,000 nuclear warheads in the world. In January 2024, Russia had 5,580 nuclear warheads, the United States - 5,044, France - 290, and the United Kingdom - 1,000. with 225 nuclear warheads.
What types of nuclear weapons are there?
It is important to distinguish between strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. Strategic nuclear weapons are designed to strike other continents. Their explosive power and destructive power are many times greater than that of the Hiroshima bomb with its power of 15 kilotons. Strategic nuclear weapons are intended primarily for deterrence, as they can reach targets far from the actual theater of hostilities. These types of weapons are usually carried by intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Tactical nuclear weapons have less destructive power. They are designed for use on the battlefield - for example, against larger military formations. They are intended to prevent large conventional attacks. But modern tactical nuclear weapons have significantly greater destructive power than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, the German media recalls.
Which weapons have so far guaranteed the nuclear umbrella over Germany?
Despite the various disarmament treaties since the end of the Cold War, nuclear weapons are still deployed on German territory. This is done within the framework of NATO's nuclear weapons sharing program. Although Germany does not possess its own, it can use American nuclear weapons located on its territory if the American president and the German government approve this. This is the so-called "two keys" principle.
It is assumed that there are 20 American tactical nuclear weapons at the Büchel air base in the German state of Rhineland-Palatinate. However, the information is not official. Büchel also hosts Tornado fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
However, recent political developments in the US have raised doubts about whether the US president would even approve the use of these weapons if the worst comes to the worst. Since then, the discussion about a European defense alternative has been gaining momentum.
Is there a European alternative to the US nuclear umbrella?
French President Emmanuel Macron has long proposed extending the protection provided by French nuclear weapons to other countries. This would be an important step in view of the need to guarantee security in Europe more independently of the US. But what would this look like in concrete terms? And who would decide whether French nuclear weapons should be used?
France has always attached great importance to being an independent nuclear power. The country has only strategic nuclear weapons, but no tactical ones. The weapons themselves, as well as the planes and submarines that can launch them, do not contain American components, so the United States cannot oppose them if the French decide to use their weapons. This is a plus for the Europeans. For now, however, it does not seem very realistic for France to agree to share its nuclear weapons with other countries, including deploying them on foreign territory. Paris wants to decide on their use itself. And many are wondering what the French president will want in return.
Military expert Christian Möhling of the Bertelsmann Foundation warns that a new dependency should not arise. "Macron is now president, but in Marine Le Pen there is a presidential candidate who has already stated that she would not defend Germany." Möhling sees an additional problem in the fact that France does not have the potential to escalate its nuclear deterrent - only the United States has such capabilities. As for the British nuclear arsenal, it is dependent on American components, which is why it does not offer real independence from the United States.
Should Germany acquire its own nuclear weapons?
Until now, this was prohibited by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which has been in force since 1970, and in Germany since 1975. It states that non-nuclear states must refrain from acquiring nuclear weapons.
If Germany withdraws from the treaty, this could have a devastating effect on the 191 signatory states. In addition, the idea of German nuclear weapons would be a real challenge for German society, which has always protested against the deployment of nuclear weapons on German soil since the 1980s, ARD points out.
What is the alternative?
One way for Europe to break its dependence on the United States in this area is for the Europeans to reach an agreement with the Americans to operate the weapons systems in question independently, military expert Möhling told ARD. He gives the example of the American F-35 fighter jets, which are capable of carrying nuclear weapons and will replace the “Tornado” fighters in Büchel. None of these planes would be able to fly if the US government revoked their licenses, even though some of their parts are manufactured in Germany.
What arsenal does Russia have?
The current debate over nuclear deterrence is closely linked to Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Russia has the largest arsenal of warheads in the world and has made nuclear weapons a fixed part of its military doctrine. This is another reason why the country is constantly modernizing its arsenal. The military also relies on mobile launchers for nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as submarines - like the US, UK and France. Both the mobile launchers and the submarines are intended to guarantee a "second strike capability" in the event of war - that is, to strike back with an equally strong blow even after a massive attack.
During the war in Ukraine, Russia repeatedly threatened to use its nuclear weapons if Western countries provided military assistance to Ukraine. An important role in this regard is played by Russia's ally Belarus, as well as the exclave of Kaliningrad: nuclear weapons located there could reach targets in NATO countries without warning. According to analyses by the Berlin-based “Science and Politics“ Foundation, however, it is not entirely clear whether there are Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus.
Author: Claudia Buchenmayer ARD