After Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu's second victory in the Istanbul local elections last year, the Turkish opposition clearly understood that a worthy competitor had finally been found who could defeat President Erdogan. And when Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost its majority nationwide to the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) on March 31, 2024, the Turkish president realized that his power would not last forever, writes ARD.
Support for Erdogan is falling due to continued inflation
Since then, the AKP and Erdogan have lost even more of the trust of voters, the German public-law media outlet points out. Long-term inflation, a declining economy and unemployment are reducing Turkey's well-being.
There are other reasons why Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu has become a political threat to Erdogan in this situation, says political scientist Erol Katercioglu: “Ekrem Imamoglu is a good manager - he is a capable administrator and this is one of his strengths. In addition, he is from the Black Sea region“.
His surname Imamoglu, i.e. son of an imam, shows that he has a certain closeness to Muslim voters, ARD also writes. It is also smart that he maintains “warm“ relations with the Kurds. Thanks to this, he has a good chance of winning the votes of Kurdish voters.
Repression as an instrument of power
Turkish President Erdogan has reacted to the threat of losing power with firmness and repression - almost every day, famous actors, journalists or influential company bosses, as well as elected mayors from opposition parties, are arrested. Almost always on the same charges: corruption, supporting terrorist activities or insulting the president.
After 22 years of AKP rule, the judiciary in Turkey has become an obedient instrument of repression for the Erdogan government, expert Katercioglu told ARD. “All institutions that should be independent have become state-owned. Of course, in theory, the judiciary should be independent - to guarantee justice. But it has never been like that, even before. I remember the 1970s and 1980s - even then the courts were not fair.“
Today, however, a completely different question is on the agenda, says the expert: “Will the judge who has to rule on the Imamoglu case have the courage to tell the prosecutor - no, I will not play your game. This man is innocent and I will release him“. According to Katarcioglu, this is extremely unlikely. “Because if he does this, something will happen to him immediately - either he will be transferred or he will be retired.“
Early elections as a tactical solution?
Erdogan's goal is to remain in power. But he could only run in the next elections if the Constitution is changed. And the three-fifths majority in parliament required for this is not certain, ARD points out.
Political observers believe that Erdogan will therefore call early elections - in which case he could run again. If he has managed to eliminate his most dangerous political rival and silence critical media by then, the president's re-election will become more likely, the German public-law media outlet points out.
The AKP's hard-core voters still provide up to 35 percent of support. And supporters of smaller nationalist parties also want Erdogan as a strong leader of the country.
Europe will not stand in the way of Erdogan
Erdogan does not need to fear harsh criticism from abroad. For example, EC President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized cooperation more than human rights during her visit to Turkey in December 2024.
Both the EU and NATO are in deep crisis and need a strong geostrategically and militarily Turkey, ARD points out. Whether in connection with the war in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, the future of Syria or with regard to refugees, Erdogan's country is playing an increasingly important and active role. Thus, for democracies in the West, democracy and human rights are taking a back seat – a useful partnership comes forward.
The German public-law media outlet also notes that a possible peace with the Kurds would be a historic success for Erdogan, which could bring him millions of Kurdish votes.
"Like a Sultan"
However, the Turkish president has bigger goals, says political scientist Katarcioglu, quoted by ARD: "Erdogan is a man who wants to go down in history - but not as an ordinary president, but as the sultans of the past. Moreover, even the Ottoman sultans did not have as much power as he has today".
For a large part of the Turkish population, the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu represents a turning point. His removal from office and from politics makes many Turks feel that their votes have lost their meaning. In their opinion, Turkey is mutating towards an autocracy - with Erdogan as the ruler for all time, ARD summarizes.
Author: Bernd Niebrügge ARD