Since the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Russia has had a serious problem: the future of its two military bases there - Tartus and Hmeimim - is in question. It is uncertain whether, and if so - to what extent - the Russian military will be able to keep the bases after Moscow's partner Bashar Assad has been ousted.
As a result, another country in the region - Libya - is becoming increasingly important to Russia. Since December 2024 (the month of Assad's fall), security experts have observed increased flights from Syria to Libya, while more and more Russian ships have passed through the eastern Libyan naval base of Tobruk. It is under the control of Libyan General Khalifa Haftar, who also controls significant territories in the eastern part of the divided country.
“Immediately after the overthrow of Assad, many planes and cargo ships delivered Russian material to Libya from bases in Syria“, Tarek Megerisi of the European Council on Foreign Relations told DW. “It was clear that in Moscow's eyes, Libya had already become a safe place in the Mediterranean region.“ Moscow's interests there were promoted not least by the former private army “Wagner“, which now operates under the name “Africa Corps“.
Moscow's interests in Libya
Megerisi emphasizes that Moscow pursues many interests in Libya, which is torn apart by the civil war. In principle, Russia is striving for a military presence in the Mediterranean, which it has had mainly in Syria so far. It is also interested in exploiting local mineral resources, especially energy resources. At the same time, under the pressure of Western sanctions, Russia is trying to find customers for its own exports, including arms exports.
Experts from the Soufan Security Center in New York are of the same opinion - the weapons are for the Libyan National Defense Army, commanded by Haftar, or they can be exported to neighboring countries.
However, there is something else - the influence on migration passing through Libya towards Europe is also of interest to Russia - it serves Moscow as a means of pressure on the EU.
Attention is now focused on the ruler's son
In the Libyan conflict, Russia has been supporting the separatist Khalifa Haftar for years - the strongman in the east of the country. He remains Moscow's most important partner, Ulf Lessing of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's Mali office told DW. "The Russians also have diplomatic ties with the west of Libya and the capital Tripoli. But their attention is definitely focused on Haftar." However, this is a risk, as Haftar is now 81 years old and his rule is fragile, including due to pressure from the United States, Lessing points out.
The more significant the role of his son - Saddam Haftar, who is also a general - seems. The son, against whom an arrest warrant was issued in Spain in 2024 on charges of arms smuggling, has established himself as Russia's partner in Libya in recent years, notes Tarek Megerisi. Haftar provides Russia with a network of Libyan military bases, and Moscow is grateful for this. "Russia is using all this to help Saddam Haftar expand Libya's role as a hub for smuggling weapons, drugs, fuel and people," Megerisi said.
Trading in suffering
For years, flights from Syria to eastern Libya operated by a private Syrian airline, Lessing said. "This is how migrants from Asia - from Pakistan or Bangladesh - arrived in eastern Libya. From there they were taken to ships, and then they set off for Italy."
With the help of his private militias, Saddam Haftar has created a complex infrastructure for professional human trafficking, Megerisi said. It also uses international networks for trade and smuggling people for a fee. "This shows how Libyan armed groups are crossing political boundaries to profit," the expert said. The victims of all this are migrants, who often take high risks and are exposed to great hardship in the hope of a better life in Europe. Meanwhile, amounts of up to $9,000 are already being collected from migrants, Megerisi said.
Human traffickers follow a rigid scheme, the expert explains: upon arrival in Libya, migrants must hand over their documents to the police, who detain them until they pay a fee. Before setting off on ships to Europe, migrants are usually held for days and weeks, often in inhumane conditions. “Saddam then receives money from them again to let his coast guard boats pass: $100 per migrant in the “smaller boats“ (for between 300 and 550 people) or a total fee of $80,000 for the larger ships“, Megerisi reports.
“Migration as a weapon“
Megerisi explains that migrants reach Libya in different ways - Africans come by land, people from Asia more often by plane. And this is where Moscow's interests against Europe are manifested. "Russia is using migration as a weapon," summarizes Tarek Megerisi. This was already clear during the war in Syria, when Russian planes transported migrants from Damascus to Minsk in an attempt to reach Europe from there, thus increasing pressure on the EU's external borders. "However, since Assad's overthrow, the focus on migration has shifted to the Sahel region. There, Russian militias are helping to ensure that more and more people head to Europe. And in this area, they are working hand in hand with Saddam Haftar."
Europe could best counter migration by offering migrants safe routes and effectively controlling arrivals, Megerisi believes. “This would cut off the traffickers' business and give Europe control.“
Author: Kersten Knip