The war of words between Israel and Turkey is escalating. According to observers, the recent Israeli bombings in Syria were intended as a message to Turkey. Will it lead to a direct confrontation?
For several days now, the two countries have been exchanging insults and threats: “Turkey is trying to create a neo-Ottoman state in Syria and if it crosses the red line, Israel will act“, senior Israeli officials have warned. “With its continued airstrikes on Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, the fundamentalist and racist government of Israel has become “the biggest threat to the security of our region”, the Turkish side responded.
Israel says it has no other choice
The latest undiplomatic comments came in the wake of Israel's latest bombings in Syria last week. Since the authoritarian regime of dictator Bashar al-Assad was toppled in December 2024, Israel has carried out numerous strikes on targets in Syria. The new Syrian authorities - busy trying to unify the country after 14 years of civil war - say they do not want any conflict with Israel. Israel, however, insists it is forced to bomb Syria to ensure that the new government does not use the weapons of the old regime against it. But last week's airstrikes were different: they were a message to Turkey, an Israeli official told local media.
For months, Turkey has been negotiating a defense pact with the new Syrian government. That would include training Syrian troops and using Syrian air bases, including those hit by Israel. Turkey believes it will allow it to fill the vacuum left by Iran and Russia, former military backers of the ousted Assad regime, to help stabilize Syria and continue operations against the extremist group “Islamic State“.
Israel fears a “Sunni Crescent“
Israel sees things differently. "Turkey's intention to deploy air defense systems and radars at central Syrian airports poses a direct threat to Israel's freedom of action in Syria," Israeli defense reporter Ron Ben-Yishai wrote in an article for Ynet News. If Turkey is in Syria, Israel will not be able to freely use Syrian airspace to move towards Iran, for example, Ben-Yishai argued. Under the Assad regime, the use of Syrian airspace was more restricted.
"We must pay attention to Turkey's growing presence in Syria - without this meaning that we should start a conflict with Ankara," Israeli security adviser Yaakov Nagel also stressed. Israel is clearly concerned that Turkey, Syria and Egypt will unite against it in the so-called "Sunni Crescent" - in place of the meanwhile weakened “Shiite crescent“, led by Iran. However, according to experts, the idea of a “Sunni crescent“ is unlikely, because none of these countries actually wants to fight Israel.
Two days after the Israeli airstrikes on Syria, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Reuters that his country did not want a confrontation with Israel. “Syria does not belong to Turkey, nor to Israel. The Syrians themselves decide on their security. If they want to partner with certain countries or international communities, they are welcome”, said the top Turkish diplomat.
Long-term ties
Currently, Turkish-Israeli relations are at their lowest point in decades, observers say. Yusuf Kahn, a former analyst at the Wilson Center in Washington, which has since been closed by the Trump administration, believes we are witnessing “probably the deepest rift in years”: “For a long time, Turkey and Israel had an agreement – even when they had political disagreements, trade between them did not stop. But that buffer is now eroding – this proxy war is a very real threat, which was not the case before,” the analyst adds.
In 1949, Turkey became one of the first Muslim-majority countries to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. The two countries maintain intelligence, trade and military contacts, which have been maintained despite the inflammatory rhetoric of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
By bombing Syrian infrastructure, moving troops into Syrian territory and interfering in the country's internal politics, Israel is forcing the weak Syrian government to turn to Turkey for help, observers say.
What is really happening?
“The ongoing Israeli aggression, attempts to “demilitarize“ southern Syria and interference in Syrian politics increase the likelihood that (the new Syrian government – ed.) will deepen defense cooperation with Turkey to deter further Israeli expansion“, believe the Brussels-based think tank “International Crisis Group“.
“Both sides see the other side as the culprit“, Yusuf Khan told DW. Israel’s airstrikes and policies in Gaza are undoubtedly fueling anger and instability. But Turkey’s increased activity in the region and its support for Islamist factions are also contributing to the chaos, especially in Syria, he says. “It’s a self-reinforcing rivalry, with each side’s actions feeding the other’s fears.”
However, a direct confrontation between Israel and Turkey is unlikely. “Behind the scenes, both sides seem to understand that a direct military clash would be catastrophic, especially given that Turkey is a NATO member and Israel is a key U.S. ally,” Khan says. While the risk of escalation is real, the two sides are clearly trying to find some balance, he adds.