China officially declares its neutral position in the war against Ukraine, but real actions show the opposite.
Analysis of customs data shows: Beijing massively supplies Russia with the highly sought-after nitrocellulose - a key raw material for the production of gunpowder and explosives, which was almost not exported before the start of a full-scale war. If in 2015-2021 Chinese supplies of nitrocellulose to Russia were scarce or non-existent, then after the invasion in 2022 the situation changed dramatically. In 2022, China exported approximately 700 tons of nitrocellulose to Russia, in 2023 - already over 1,300 tons (which is equivalent to over 200 thousand 152 mm caliber shells). The growth continues in 2024: in the first quarter of this year alone, about 110 tons of this substance were sent to Russia. For comparison, the volumes before the war were insignificant. This rapid increase comes against the backdrop of a severe restriction of supplies of raw materials to the Russian military-industrial complex by Western countries.
China's declaration of neutrality against reality
Officially, the Chinese government insists that it does not supply Russia with deadly weapons and is not involved in the conflict. At a briefing in April 2025, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said: “China has never transferred lethal weapons to any party in the Ukrainian crisis“ (reuters.com). He also stressed that Beijing “actively advocates a cessation of hostilities and an end to the conflict“ (reuters.com). A similar position was expressed by Liu Pengyu of the Chinese Embassy in Washington, stating that “economic and trade cooperation between China and Russia is not directed against any third party“ and that “China does not sell weapons to the parties involved in the conflict in Ukraine“ (timesca.com).
However, the facts indicate otherwise. The growth in nitrocellulose exports directly corresponds to the growth in the needs of the Russian military machine. Experts emphasize that the supply of strategic raw materials is actually support for military operations. Western politicians and analysts point out that China is currently the main source of nitrocellulose for the Russian army (politico.eu). MEP Viola von Cramon-Taubadel (Greens/EFA) has openly warned: China is the “largest supplier“ of nitrocellulose to Russia and must decide between the Russian and Western markets. According to Politico, US intelligence also believes that it is highly likely that China is deliberately supplying nitrocellulose to Russia to support its military efforts (politico.eu). This information was personally proven to the Chinese leadership by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during his visit to Beijing in April (reuters.com).
The Belarusian factor and the transfer of ammunition production
In parallel, part of the military production is being transferred to Belarus. Belarusian factories, often with the support of the Russian military and using Chinese technology, are increasing the production of ammunition and components for missile systems in support of the war. In particular, Belarus has begun production of modernized “Polonaise” and “Polonaise-M” systems using Chinese technology, as well as the modernization of Belarusian “Buk” air defense systems using Chinese engines. These processes are causing growing concern in the EU and NATO due to the fact that Belarus is actually becoming a logistics hub for Russian troops. In response, the European Union has expanded sanctions from June 2024, banning the transit and direct and indirect supplies of dual-use weapons, ammunition and technologies to Belarus (consilium.europa.eu), and export contracts must contain a special “anti-Belarusian” clause. This is how the EU responded to attempts to circumvent sanctions against Russia through the Belarusian military-industrial complex.
Quality of Chinese products and technical risks
A separate threat is the quality of Chinese nitrocellulose. According to experts, it often does not meet the standards of Western manufacturers - we are talking about technically unstable, low-quality batches. The largest exporter is the Chinese company Sichuan Push Acetati Co. Ltd., whose products, according to experts, may have an unstable level of nitration, which provokes dangerous chemical reactions. This increases the risk of accidents at production facilities. Thus, explosions and fires at Russian gunpowder factories are associated either with safety violations or with the use of low-quality raw materials. For example, in March 2025, a large fire with explosions broke out at the Perm gunpowder plant, which necessitated the evacuation of dozens of workers. However, Russian authorities initially denied the incident, calling it a “dangerous counterfeit“, which only increased concerns about the quality of the nitrocellulose used.
Implications for Poland and Central Europe
Mass supplies of nitrocellulose to Russia and the expansion of ammunition production in Belarus pose a serious threat to the Visegrad Group countries. Poland and other border countries warn of an increased risk of technological accidents. Ammunition depots and production facilities in Belarus, some of which are located close to the Polish border,
pose a potential threat of fires, explosions and toxic emissions spreading beyond Belarus. In the event of accidents, the territories of Poland and Lithuania would be at risk. Investors also assess the region as increasingly risky: sanctions and political instability are worsening the business climate, and dozens of Western companies have already left the Belarusian market. For example, the EU has introduced mechanisms to compensate Western companies for losses caused by expropriation and sanctions in Belarus (consilium.europa.eu). In general, large-scale Sino-Belarusian military cooperation could change the balance of power and influence the political situation in Central Europe.
Geopolitical context and conclusion
China seeks to position itself on the international stage as a neutral peacemaker, but the massive support for Russian military production contradicts these claims. The export of strategic raw materials for weapons production, in particular nitrocellulose, even under WTO supervision, does not correspond to the declared policy of neutrality (reuters.com, timesca.com). This increases international pressure on Beijing. The US has already added Chinese nitrocellulose importers to the sanctions list and warned: anyone who supports the Russian military machine risks losing access to the US market (apnews.com). The European Union is actively seeking ways to reduce its defense sector's dependence on China (even the head of Sweden's Saab warned that a rift with Chinese suppliers of nitrocellulose could have "fatal consequences" for Europe). Thus, Europe is increasingly realizing that China's "neutrality" is merely an illusion, and that raw materials for the production of ammunition have become one of the key factors in this war.