Europe has been inundated with hybrid threats, especially from Moscow, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, writes the European Newsroom (ENR) - a platform for cooperation between 23 European news agencies, writes BTA. EU officials and intelligence reports warn of a sharp increase in attacks aimed at destabilizing European democracies. National elections, infrastructure and public trust are under attack.
The EU is increasingly concerned about Russian interference, which is seen as part of a broader hybrid campaign by Moscow to weaken the West.
At a meeting of the European Parliament's special committee on the European Shield for Democracy (EUDS) on Tuesday, Bulgarian investigative journalist Hristo Grozev stressed that Russia's hybrid warfare goes far beyond espionage and includes sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation and organized chaos.
According to Grozev, who previously worked for the investigative website "Bellinkat" and now writes for the German magazine "Spiegel" and the independent Russia-focused media outlet "Insider", Moscow's campaigns aim to sow chaos and confusion and spread fear.
The war in Ukraine remains a key target for Russia, but events such as the Paris Olympics, national elections in Romania, Germany, Moldova and last year's EU-wide European Parliament elections have also been in the spotlight.
During her re-election campaign last year, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised to build a European Shield for Democracy to counter threats. Commissioner for Democracy, Justice, the Rule of Law and Consumer Protection Michael McGrath is now in charge of developing the initiative. The Commission has yet to publish a formal policy proposal.
In December, the European Parliament voted to set up the special committee amid growing concerns about malicious interference in EU democratic processes. The commission is tasked with proposing concrete solutions to strengthen the bloc's resilience against hybrid threats.
Grozev expressed optimism that Russian hybrid threats can be countered. "The cells exposed, the networks mapped and the spies convicted show that these operations can be countered. Success is due to cooperation - the interaction between journalists and between states," he stressed.
What are hybrid threats?
Hybrid threats are associated with a number of unconventional attacks, such as cyberattacks or disinformation. This general term in the security field covers actions that state or non-state actors use to harm other countries without waging open war. Hybrid attacks are usually difficult or impossible to pin down to a specific perpetrator.
In recent months, many countries in Europe have reported damage to infrastructure, including undersea data cables in the Baltic Sea, as well as arson and alleged false flag operations. Investigators believe Russia is behind many of the attacks.
The EU's foreign policy chief, Kaia Kallas, said in her annual report released last month that "the manipulation and interference of foreign information is a major threat to the EU's security." The report also said that disinformation attacks against more than 80 countries and more than 200 organizations were tracked last year.
Ahead of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels in December, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said that in 2024 There have been 500 suspicious incidents in Europe, and nearly 100 of them can be attributed to Russia.
The alliance's Secretary General Mark Rutte told the meeting that China, Iran and North Korea are also active in cyberattacks.
Disrupting servers... and elections
A common type of cyberattack is the so-called Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack, which floods servers with internet traffic to make them inaccessible.
Last year, the pro-Russian hacker group NoName057(16) carried out such a DDoS attack against public institutions and strategic sectors in Spain and other NATO countries considered allies of Ukraine. The attack in Spain temporarily blocked some websites, but was contained and no data theft or malware activation was reported.
The hacking group emerged after Russia launched its war on Ukraine and threatened to respond to "anti-Russian" actions by Western countries. In July, Spain's Civil Guard arrested three people for their alleged involvement in the attacks.
According to intelligence agencies, Russia has also frequently attempted to interfere in democratic processes in Europe, attempting to disrupt elections.
In its 2024 annual report, The Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD), which was published this week, said that Russian hackers had carried out cyberattacks on public transport companies and political party websites in an attempt to disrupt the European Parliament elections in the Netherlands by making it difficult for citizens to vote.
According to Vice Admiral Peter Risink of the Dutch military intelligence, the hackers had tried to gain access to vital infrastructure in the Netherlands in order to cut off aid to Ukraine.
A few days before the German parliamentary elections in February, the Interior Ministry warned that Russia had launched a disinformation campaign targeting voters, aiming to support the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and to "destroy trust in democracy."
The campaign suggested that the AfD, which is sympathetic to Russia, was being treated unfairly. The AfD has been accused of ties to Moscow and has called on Germany to end its military support for Ukraine.
According to Philipp Schmedeke, head of the Academic Network for Eastern Europe (AKNO), Russian intelligence services are increasingly targeting German academic organizations focused on Eastern Europe. The organization has supported 1,200 people from Russia, Belarus and Ukraine in the past four years and continues to help scholars forced to flee repression, persecution, work bans and war.
In December, Romania's Constitutional Court (CCR) annulled the country's presidential election over concerns about Russian interference in the vote, in which far-right politician Calin Georgescu, backed by Moscow, unexpectedly won the first round.
According to the Supreme Council for National Defense (CSAT), Romania has been the target of "actions by a state cyber actor" regarding information and communication technologies supporting the electoral process.
Following the annulment of the decision, the 2024 Democracy Index, published by The Economist Intelligence Unit, downgraded Romania's ranking from "imperfect democracy" to "hybrid regime", dropping it 12 places to 72nd in the world. The cancellation of the elections has also negatively affected the country's assessment of pluralism.
Romania's presidential elections are now scheduled for May 4 (first round) and May 18 (second round).
Keeping the EU's neighbors at bay
Disinformation and conspiracy theories continue to plague the EU's neighbors as well - for example, in Moldova, which borders Russia, and in the Republic of North Macedonia, which is seeking EU membership.
Moldova, one of the poorest countries in Europe, remains heavily dependent on Russian gas. The former Soviet republic is deeply divided between pro-European and pro-Russian factions. Pro-Western President Maia Sandu won a second term in October, and the EU has accused Russia of "unprecedented" vote interference in an attempt to favor pro-Kremlin candidate Aleksandar Stoyanoglou.
In North Macedonia, pro-Kremlin figures are operating on social media, capitalizing on disillusionment, skepticism and suspicion, according to the report "Foreign Influence in North Macedonia", published by the Euro-Atlantic Council of North Macedonia.
Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade Timcho Mutsunski warned that trust in the EU is at risk and that the enlargement of the bloc is necessary to prevent Russian propaganda from being used as a weapon. Mutsunski specifically warned of malicious actors taking advantage of North Macedonia's frustration with the ever-changing requirements for EU accession.
A total of nine countries have been granted candidate status for EU membership, and the EU is closely monitoring countries such as Serbia and Georgia whose governments have shown a tendency to move closer to Russia.