On February 24, 2022, early in the morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military invasion of Ukraine from the north, east and south.
The operation was declared a "special military operation in Donbas".
Putin justified himself by saying that the decision was made to protect the people who "have been subjected to genocide by the Kiev regime for eight years".
On February 21, the Kremlin recognized the independence of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, and shortly after sent "peacekeepers" there.
It has been three years since the start of what Putin's Russia stubbornly calls a "special military operation", in Ukraine - a full-scale invasion, and in the world - the largest aggression against a sovereign state on the European continent since World War II. The balance sheet is equally bitter and hopeful, calculates "Deutsche Welle".
Bitter, because Ukraine is making expensive sacrifices and suffering large-scale destruction of its infrastructure, economy and settlements. In 1992, the country had a population of 51 million. No more than 33-34 million currently inhabit it - a result of negative demographics, but also because the invasion unleashed a multimillion-dollar wave of refugees.
The West's hesitations
Bitter also because of the caution, hesitation and inconsistency of the West in supporting Ukraine. The EU recently voted for a 50 billion euro aid package for the country. At the same time, Polish farmers blocked the Ukrainian-Polish border to protest against the access of Ukrainian agricultural products to their markets. At their protests, a red flag with a hammer and sickle was seen, as well as a poster that read: “Putin, restore order in Ukraine, Brussels and our government“ - and Poland is one of the European countries most affected by the USSR. Germany and France, on the other hand, took a long time to understand what was happening and react adequately.
Kiev's key ally - the United States - is in the final stages before a presidential election in which support for Ukraine plays a relatively marginal role. Trump's isolationism, his open reluctance to confront Putin, and the former president's great influence in the Republican Party are a source of legitimate concern for Ukrainians.
A recent study by the European Council on Foreign Relations showed that for the global South, the war between Russia and Ukraine is more of a regional conflict, of little importance to countries like Brazil, India, and South Africa. The clash between Israel and “Hamas” in Gaza is perceived as the real threat to peace and international order.
The failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the disagreements between President Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief General Zaluzhny, which led to the replacement of the latter, the relative stabilization of the front and partial Russian successes such as the one at Avdiivka contributed to the pessimistic attitudes, according to which the war will be difficult to win.
Russian propaganda influence
The media play a key role in all this. On the one hand, there was an overexposure of expectations for a quick and easy Ukrainian victory, on the other - a gradual displacement of the Ukrainian topic in the information flow. Both are happening against the backdrop of a constant and intense Russian propaganda campaign on a global scale.
The most bitter conclusion is that for the moment the Russians are winning not so much the military clash as the information war. Thanks to its powerful disinformation campaign, Russia has managed to impose its narrative to a large extent - and not only in the global South, but also in the West. Russian propaganda supremacy hides a real danger.
But the two-year war also gives reason for optimism. Russia may not be in disarray, Putin's regime may be consolidated for the time being, but the Russian army is not the force that countries near and far feared. Kiev did not fall. Ukraine stopped the invasion, regained significant territories and is fighting on an equal footing with a country perceived as a superpower.
The Ukrainian army has proven itself to be extremely combat-ready, highly motivated and receptive to new technologies. The Ukrainians are showing strategic and tactical flexibility and good coordination between the different branches of the armed forces. It can be said that at the moment the Ukrainian armed forces are among the best in the world.
The Ukrainian people are determined to prevail
The most catastrophic loss for the Putin regime is the consolidation of Ukrainian society against the invaders. Profound analyses of the division of “left-bank“ and “right-bank” Ukraine, of Russian-speaking and Ukrainian-speaking populations in internecine conflict, have become meaningless in the face of the determination of the Ukrainian people to prevail.
Ukraine will never again be a Moscow colony. For Ukrainians, this war is patriotic (the parallel with World War II is not accidental), and the level of volunteer participation in the rear is just as impressive as the effectiveness of the armed forces at the front. Despite the difficulties, there is no division between the rear and the front.
The spectrum of volunteer activity is wide - from collecting aid for the families of fallen soldiers to purchasing medicines and medical supplies for the front, from participating in the reconstruction of the homes of those affected by the bombings to purchasing drones and training operators. The level of solidarity is remarkable.
No less impressive is the vitality of civil society. Ukraine - a synonym for corruption throughout the post-Soviet period, has more and more active investigative journalists than many peaceful European countries. Their work is especially difficult in times of war, but they do it regardless of the conditions.
Ukraine – as a laboratory for the future
The Ukrainian media landscape is changing. Until the Euromaidan in 2014, heavy censorship, oligarchic media ownership, and high-profile murders of journalists made the country one of the most dangerous for practicing this profession. Today, the information monopoly of the state-controlled media is shaken.
In a sense, wartime Ukraine is a laboratory for the future of liberal democracy. In this war, opposing ideas of modernity collide, and in conditions of radical technological change and simultaneous deglobalization. The world will judge the viability of authoritarianism and democracy by its outcome.
That is precisely why support for Ukraine should not weaken.