In an April 17 article in the Washington Post, the head of the Ukrainian Chief Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Kirilo Budanov clarifies that the Russian offensive, which Kiev has been predicting for a long time, will probably begin in June 2024. The goal will be to capture the entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Russian forces will try to achieve battlefield successes in 2024 as part of efforts to influence Western decision-making. Budanov previously predicted that a future major Russian offensive would begin in late May or early June 2024.
Ukrainian officials, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, recently warned of the threat of a potential future Russian ground offensive targeting the city of Kharkiv.
Kiev has repeatedly warned that US security assistance is vital to Ukraine's ability to defend itself in the summer of 2024.
ISW continues to believe that the current shortage of Ukrainian artillery allows Russian forces to make tactical progress.
However, Ukrainian forces have previously demonstrated their ability when adequately equipped.
Budanov also said on April 17 that Ukraine plans to counter future offensive operations by continuing strikes against military targets in Russia. These strikes are intended to show that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot "protect the Russian population from war".
Russian forces are ramping up cryptomobilization ahead of summer 2024. Bloomberg reported on April 18, citing three sources familiar with the Kremlin's discussions, that the goal is to avoid another partial mobilization of reservists.
Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Center for Strategy and Technology Analysis and a member of the civilian advisory board of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), claims that Russia's current cryptomobilization efforts are adding about 30,000 new recruits each month and the military could hire a total of 300,000 personnel in 2024.
The claim coincides with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's April 3 warning that Russia is preparing to "mobilize" another 300,000 employees on June 1.
Russian opposition publication Verstka reported the same on March 22, citing high-ranking sources in Russia's defense ministry, presidential administration and regional governments.
Bloomberg noted that Russian regional one-time payments for signing a contract rose 40 percent to an average of 470,000 rubles ($4,992). A Russian insider said up to one million rubles ($10,622) were being offered to sign military contracts.
Russian officials will reportedly use economic incentives more actively to attract military personnel.
The Russian Defense Ministry said on April 3 that more than 100,000 Russians have signed contracts for military service since early 2024, but are unlikely to collect what they need until the summer. The Russian army is gaining strength at a rate equal to its losses in Ukraine in recent months.
Ukrainian officials have clarified that a Ukrainian strike on a Russian military airfield in occupied Dzhankoy, Crimea on the night of April 16-17 caused significant damage to Russian air defense equipment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on April 17 that Ukrainian forces had carried out a successful strike against the Russian airport in Dzhankoy.
GUR announced on April 18 that the strike destroyed four S-400 air defense launchers, three radar stations, an air defense control center and the Murom-M airspace surveillance system.
Russian bloggers seized on a brutal crime committed by a migrant in Moscow on April 18 to reiterate calls for further restrictions on Russian migration policy. Russian news outlet Mash reported on April 18 that an Azeri migrant killed a Russian man in Moscow and fled the scene.
Russian bloggers have called on authorities to further tighten migration policies and penalties for crimes committed by migrants.
They warned that otherwise, the Russians would be forced to "take matters into their own hands".
TASS notably avoided framing the crime as ethnic until Russian authorities publicly identified the suspect as a migrant from Azerbaijan.
Russian ultranationalists have stepped up their calls since the Crocus City Hall attack on March 22. The contradictions between the Russian president's apparent efforts to quell anti-immigrant sentiment among the ultra-nationalist electorate while maintaining Russia's military effort and economic viability loom large.
Russian news bulletin RBK reported on April 18 that the Federal Service for Supervision in Education and Science (Rosobrnadzor) is considering introducing an oral exam in Russian for migrant workers and increasing the minimum exam score in Russian language, history and law for foreigners who want a residence permit or Russian citizenship.
Migrants are currently admitted to Russia without passing an oral language test. Russian Education and Science Minister Valery Falkov has announced that only one Russian state university as a federal entity will be allowed to hold exams in Russian language, history and migrant law from May 1, 2024, in an effort to "strengthen quality control. on exam."
At the same time, Russia is interested in migrants for the front or as labor.
German authorities have detained two people suspected of helping Russia in its ongoing efforts to sabotage the military infrastructure and logistics of NATO member states. German publication Der Spiegel reported on April 18 that the arrests were made in Bayreuth, Bavaria for alleged sabotage in Germany on behalf of Russian security services.
German investigators have identified plans for attacks on German military infrastructure facilities, weapons factories and industrial sites, with an emphasis on routes used to transport military goods to hit German military aid to Ukraine. The investigation also reported that one of the suspects conducted intelligence for Russian services on US military facilities in Germany, including in an area where the US military trains Ukrainian soldiers in Bavaria. Der Speigel reported that one of the suspects previously served in the People's Militia of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) between 2014 and 2016. German Foreign Minister Analena Berbock summoned the Russian ambassador to Germany on April 18 in response to the arrests.
The Russian Embassy in Germany claims that the German authorities have not provided "any evidence" about the suspects' ties to the Russian security services and that the arrests were a "open provocation".