Several spectacular arrests have rocked the Russian defense sector. Officially, it is a fight against corruption, but some talk about a "purge". What is behind these casts and how will this affect the war in Ukraine?
At first it was believed to be a single case - at the end of April, the Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia Timur Ivanov was arrested and held in custody for two months. Later, the authorities announced that they are accusing him of accepting large bribes, for which they expect him to be imprisoned for up to 15 years, ARD recalls.
Political motives?
However, it turned out that this was not an isolated case. Four other high-ranking members of Russia's security sector also had similar things happen to them. Major General Ivan Popov, for example, was the commander of the 58th Army until the summer of 2023, but then he criticized the high number of casualties and the way Moscow was conducting the war in Ukraine, after which he was fired. Now he is also accused of fraud and misappropriation of funds. However, Popov's dismissal and subsequent arrest caused great unrest in the army - as a result, he was released from prison and is now under house arrest.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denies that a campaign is being waged against representatives of the Ministry of Defense. According to him, the fight against corruption is ongoing. However, corruption in the Russian administration is far from an exception, but a deep-rooted practice, explains Margarete Klein from the German Institute for International Security. “This means that if someone is detained on charges of corruption, there is always a political motive in this arrest,”, the expert told ARD. Why, then, are these arrests, which some call a “purge”, happening now?
Late resonance from frontline failures?
There are several theories about this. One is related to the role of the new Minister of Defense Andrey Belousov, who does not have a background in defense, as he is an economist by profession. It is possible that he is trying to assert himself in this way. According to expert Margarete Klein, Belousov may be trying to create an atmosphere of uncertainty and force employees in the sector to be loyal to him.
The second theory is that scapegoats are being sought to bear responsibility for Russia's failures on the battlefield - both at the start of the war and now.
The third assumption, expressed by experts, is that it is a larger-scale clash between various interests and representatives of the defense sector, writes ARD. Domestic intelligence, the FSB, foreign intelligence, the National Guard and the military all want to vie for the largest possible share of Russia's vastly increased defense budget. About 109 billion euros will be invested in the army this year - one third of the country's entire budget.
A lot of money goes into someone's pockets
Stefan Meister from the German Institute of Foreign Relations believes that what is happening is a direct consequence of the development of the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin is forced to see that a large part of the funds for the army disappear through corrupt practices. The authorities in Russia realize that there is a need for more efficiency in the production of weapons, and also in military operations on the front.
But that is exactly where new problems may appear, suggests military analyst Yan Matveev from the Anti-Corruption Fund, founded by Alexei Navalny. Due to layoffs and reshuffles, new people are now in key positions, which, at least in the short term, will likely make communication within the defense structures, and hence decision-making, difficult.
„In a time of repression, everyone wants to secure their back”, Matveev believes, “because if he does something wrong, they can send him to prison or retire him prematurely”. In such times, according to the expert, everyone looks to take on as little responsibility as possible to ensure peace of mind. This may cause logistical problems in securing some urgent supplies to the front.
“Show of strength”
In the medium term, the reorganization of the Russian Ministry of Defense is a bad sign for Ukraine, Stefan Meister believes. According to him, what is happening is a show of force – if Putin wants, he can get rid of everyone who gets in his way. For this purpose, there is also a special unit of the FSB, which should, in principle, monitor for foreign agents in the Russian army, but is actually used to keep the armed forces at bay.
The arrests of the five representatives of the defense sector give the impression that no one is safe anymore. This is typical of authoritarian regimes like the Russian one, Margarete Klein believes: “This is not about arresting people who have committed crimes, but about a method by which forced loyalty is imposed. And this works best when an atmosphere of uncertainty is created.