Spring - the summer offensive of the Russian army is not over yet, but we can already admit that it did not live up to all the Kremlin's expectations. Ukraine, which was on the edge of the precipice in the spring, is gradually recovering, although there are still problems - an exhausted army and a shortage of ammunition, the BBC reports.
Ukraine was weakened by the lack of US aid, which was blocked in the US Congress. In addition, it had problems with the composition of its armed forces due to a change in the leadership of the Ukrainian army. In addition, it had to change the Law on Military Mobilization.
Russia, although with heavy losses, managed to capture an important Ukrainian object near Donetsk - the settlement of Avdeevka. After a short pause, she continued her advance in several directions at the same time.
In the latest development of the situation, the Ukrainian troops left Avdeevka. What does this have to do with war?
The Russians attack in the direction of Pokrovsk, Chasov Yar, Kupyansk, Liman, Seversk, Ugledar, Kurakhovo.
In addition, they tried to "cut" the Ukrainian bridgehead in Krynky near Kherson and to regain territories near Rabotino in the Zaporozhye Region.
The Kremlin opened two more fronts. In May, Russian troops invaded the Kharkiv region near Volchansk and Liptsi, and in June began an advance on Toretsk, Donetsk region.
But how successful has this Russian offensive been, and has it achieved its strategic goals? According to military experts interviewed by the BBC Ukrainian Service, opinions are mixed.
There is a single agreement on one thing - the autumn of 2024 may turn out to be of decisive importance for the Russian-Ukrainian war.
The main achievements of Russia at the front
In the spring and summer of 2024, Russian troops did not manage to capture any large Ukrainian city, but they managed to advance 35 km in depth in the direction of Pokrovsk, 9-10 km in the direction of Toretsk, and in addition improved the positions you are near Ugledar and Kurahovo.
However, all this cannot be considered a strategic success, believes Pavel Lakiychuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI".
"The Russians planned a strategic breakthrough from Bakhmut to Avdeyevka and encirclement of the Ukrainian forces between these two settlements in the region of Toretsk and Chasov Yar,", the expert notes.
However, these intentions did not materialize and the Kremlin was forced to quickly change its plans and tactics. Thus, instead of quick strikes and breakthroughs, the Russians opted for the much more expensive tactic of slow advance.
Israeli expert David Gendelman believes that, in the end, the Russian summer offensive can be considered a partial success.
At the same time, he notes that from the beginning of autumn, the operational situation on the front will continue to become more complicated for the Ukrainian armed forces.
According to the Ukrainian military analyst and historian Mikhail Zhirokhov, the main successes of the spring-summer offensive of the Russian army were caused by mistakes of the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
He considers the loss at the end of April of the Donetsk city of Ocheretino, located between Avdeevka and Pokrovsk, to be key.
The next problem for the Ukrainians is the lost village of Progress in the same direction in July.
"Oceretino and Progress are gross mistakes of our command. The Russians just took advantage of it. This is not their merit, as was the case with Bakhmut, where they simply ate the Ukrainian defense," the expert believes.
He is convinced that the climax of the Russian offensive will occur in August or early September. During this period, the Russian army will have maximum capabilities, primarily equipment and ammunition.
This is due to the peculiarities of the Russian military-industrial complex, which operates on semi-annual production cycles.
Zhirokhov explains that from July 1 onwards, the defense industry began supplying the troops with a certain amount of weapons. Thus, until August, they are also accumulating reserves of weapons", continues Zhirokhov.
At the same time, the Russian army sought to approach Pokrovsk and managed to advance to within 10 km of the city.
David Gendelman points out that the command of the Russian group "Center" operating in this area did not announce an attack directly on the city, but expanded the captured areas on the flanks, in particular at Selidovo, to protect itself from counterattacks .
At the same time, the actions of the Ukrainian command in this section of the front were not very clear, one of the officers fighting in the Pokrovsk area commented to the Ukrainian BBC.
He admits that despite the public statements of Zelensky and Sirsky that it was necessary to strengthen Pokrovsk, some units were withdrawn from there, and others were ordered to retreat deeper into the territory of Ukraine and leave their positions practically without fight.
Probably the tactic of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was to beat the enemy directly in the urban areas of Pokrovsk or its outskirts.
Azerbaijani military analyst Agil Rustamzade assesses the situation a little differently. According to him, both countries have unresolved "crises at the operational level" - Ukraine - in relation to Pokrovsk, and Russia - in Kursk.
That is why he thinks it is a mistake to think that either side has achieved a decisive advantage or strategic success. He foresees that the offensive actions of both armies will continue until the winter and the onset of cold weather.
Summer successes of the armed forces of Ukraine
The success of the Ukrainian army during the spring-summer period can be considered the holding of the positions at the front, despite the shortage of men and weapons.
Ukrainian defense forces managed to contain the Russian offensive, which began on May 10 in the Kharkiv region, and prevent its rapid advance deep into the territory of Ukraine. Thus, for almost four months of fierce battles at Volchansk and Liptsi, Russia's successes were minimal.
In addition, it was during this period that the Ukrainian defense industry managed to increase the production of long-range drones. In terms of their use, Ukraine even managed to surpass Russia.
Regardless of these achievements, all experts are united around the idea that the biggest event of the summer is the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, which began on August 6.
This operation was unexpected, but well thought out and quickly achieved results.
David Gendelman believes that Kiev decided on this move in order to defend Pokrovsk. He made an analogy with the game of chess.
"We can say that in a strategic sense the task was "shaking the chessboard". But the problem is that at the moment we don't see a single piece falling off the board," explained the expert.
According to him, it is important how long the Ukrainian armed forces will be able to hold territories in the Kursk region and exactly how Moscow will react to their actions.
"Despite the military risks, the Kursk Oblast attack has successfully changed the way we tell the story of war," noted analysts from Britain's Royal Defense Research Institute (RUSI).
"Whether this will be enough to keep the spigots of international support open during and after the US elections in November 2024 depends on whether Kiev remains willing to use Kursk as a bargaining chip in negotiations,". says an article of the institute.
According to researchers from Britain's Royal Defense Research Institute (RUSI), the Kursk operation has raised the stakes. They can grow even more if other unexpected Ukrainian operations follow, RUSI claims.
The decisive battle for Pokrovsk in autumn
The fall of 2024 could be decisive for the Russian-Ukrainian war.
During this period, key military and political events may take place, according to David Gendelman.
He has in mind both the developments in the Kursk region and the battle for Pokrovsk, as well as the US presidential elections in early November. He points out that Kiev is critically dependent on American aid, which means that it is very important who wins the US presidential election.
However, not all analysts agree with Gendelman's thesis. Agil Rustamzadeh, for example, is of the opinion that the war is a rather protracted war, and that none of the belligerents has a decisive advantage to deliver such a blow as to bring about a turning point. He also adds that in a war of attrition, even operational successes cannot lead to a strategic breakthrough.
In turn, Mikhail Zhirokhov draws attention to the fact that, according to his data, the Russian army will be in top form at the beginning of autumn and the Kremlin will make every effort to take advantage of the situation.
Besides, there are only another month and a half, two, during which the weather will allow the Russian infantry to hide among the green bushes and trees. In addition, heavy armored vehicles move more easily on dry ground.
"Russia's successes in Donetsk will ensure that no one pays attention to their other failures. The Russian units will try to mobilize and complete their task before November, when the rains begin and the green leaves fall.
According to Zhirokhov, Ukraine will have a hard time keeping Pokrovsk under the current conditions.
He says he expects to see Sirsky's cunning plan, a new counteroffensive, for example, because in the Kursk region the Ukrainian armed forces have not used all their reserves. The logic of the events is that in the coming weeks the Ukrainians have to strike somewhere, Zhirokhov predicted.
He expects the "miracle of the Vistula", referring to the battle between Polish and Soviet units from August 13-25, 1920, when Poland was on the verge of defeat, but not only stopped the Red Army, but defeated it in counteroffensive.
David Gendelman also predicts an unexpected move from the Ukrainian side. According to him, if the Ukrainian units lose Pokrovsk, this will create an operational crisis in the Ukrainian defense this autumn.
He is adamant that the outcome of the battle for Pokrovsk will determine the further development of events on the front. Possible options include freezing the conflict or a new series of confrontations.
In any case, he does not undertake to make a more specific prediction, but concludes: there is one principle that will become even more relevant this year, and it states that chickens are counted in autumn.