Political scientist Abbas Galyamov, who wrote Putin's speeches, is now sentenced in absentia in Russia to eight years for "fake news" about the army. He lives in Israel, from where he analyzes the options before Putin.
DW: Do you think that after Trump takes office, Putin will agree to interact with Washington? Given that the new American administration wants to end the war between Russia and Ukraine?
A. Galyamov: It depends on what proposal Donald Trump will make. He sends very contradictory signals - sometimes they are kind to Putin, sometimes they are very tough. But Putin will interact anyway - he will not risk quarreling with Trump, since neither he, nor the Russian army or the Russian economy are in a position to allow him to turn Trump into his enemy. In my opinion, there will be peace talks, while the Russians will try to collapse the Ukrainian front. Putin still has hope in this regard. That is, two processes will run in parallel: dragging out negotiations with Trump and putting all-out pressure on Ukraine.
DV: Conditionally speaking, what would Trump have to "give" to Putin in order for him to agree to stop the fighting? And what concessions would Putin be willing to make in return?
A. Galyamov: I think that no one could answer the second question exactly, including Putin himself. If he understood what he was ready to sacrifice, he would have done it long ago and everything would have been over. Obviously, the situation in the economy is deteriorating sharply, as is the situation in the sphere of public opinion, in the political space. Continuing all this does not correspond to Putin's long-term strategic interests. What is called material attrition is happening.
As for Trump, he has the opportunity to expand the space for dialogue. He is skeptical of NATO and intends to withdraw the Americans from Europe, presenting this as part of the deal. That is, he will do everything according to his considerations, but he will present it as a gift to Putin. And he will turn to his people and tell them: “Look what I have achieved - the Americans are leaving Europe”.
DV: And who will Putin want to say this to - the people or the elite?
A. Galyamov: When the regime starts to lose popularity, the role of the elite grows, that is, it is about talking to these people. Moreover, they are not just his lackeys. While you are strong, they are lackeys, but in their hands are entire industries, entire state institutions. The vast resources are formally in Putin's hands, but in reality, the operators of these resources are "his" people. And if he suddenly weakens, he cannot be sure that at some point they will not decide to appoint his successor.
I am not saying that there could be a conspiracy tomorrow - Putin is still strong enough. But when he weakens and the question of the future of the regime is raised, talks will have to be held.
DV: What are the main existing groups?
A. Galyamov: The main watershed is the war in Ukraine. The technocrats, for example, understand that since there has been no victory, it is necessary to look for a way out. These people are inclined to compromise, they are ready to find a common language with Ukraine and the United States. We can call them "doves" - they are more adequate. But there are also "hawks" - the people who say: “No dialogue, no compromise, once we have started, we will fight to the victorious end”.
DV: And what would have to happen in the economy for Putin to say: This war must be ended at all costs”?
A. Galyamov: Putin's economic problems alone will not push him to take decisive action to end the war. Economic problems must begin to transform into political ones. There are manifestations of discontent even now, but they are few and local. Their number must grow, the so-called “pre-revolutionary situation” must be formed, or as Lenin said: “The tops cannot, the lowlands do not want”. This is precisely what “they do not want” it should become obvious, noticeable.
DV: Is that why they are afraid to announce mobilization?
A. Galyamov: I think there is also an economic factor, but the main one, of course, is political. The polls showed how hard the mobilization of 2022 hit the loyalty base, when the situation was completely different back then - the war had just begun and there were some illusions. Now there are no illusions. Then people still had enthusiasm, but now they don't. At the moment, the only really strong desire is for everything to end as quickly as possible, for a miracle to happen and for everything to return again in early February 2022.
DV: Can you imagine Vladimir Putin running away somewhere? For example, Assad had it easy - he flew to Moscow. And Putin?
A. Galyamov: He could try Venezuela or China. North Korea is a very unreliable option - to depend on a person who can shoot his own uncle? Iran is also a possibility - Russia and Iran have more and more in common. However, the options are not many, so Putin is holding on and trying to avoid this scenario.
Author: Konstantin Eggert