Uncertainty, anxiety, cynicism - this is how Simon Engelkes describes the mood in Ramallah, the administrative center of the Palestinian Authority. Engelkes heads the international office of the "Konrad Adenauer" Foundation there. "Many people are afraid that Israel will expand Jewish settlements, as well as a possible annexation of parts of the West Bank," Engelkes assured DW in an interview.
For decades, Israel has been expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank in violation of international law, with some of them even contradicting Israeli legislation. Meanwhile, settlement construction is no longer within the competence of the military - from mid-2023. These responsibilities have been transferred to the far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who also lives in a similar settlement. On this occasion, the human rights organization "Peace Now" accused the Israeli government of de jure annexation of the West Bank.
The concern is growing even more due to the upcoming changing of the guard in Washington and the related expectations of the right-wing religious Israeli government. On Monday, it was Minister Smotrich who said in the Knesset in Jerusalem: "With God's help, 2025 could be the year of sovereignty for Judea and Samaria." He is referring to the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which under international law is Palestinian territory. The Israeli government uses the biblical names of the areas in question to emphasize that they belong to Israel.
"Palestinians? There is no such thing!"
From the names announced so far, it is clear that the Donald Trump administration will not criticize such an approach by Israel, on the contrary - it may even welcome it. The new US ambassador to Jerusalem will play a key role. Trump is preparing former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee for this post.
He is known for his bad attitude towards the Palestinians. A video from 2008 is circulating in the American media, in which Huckabee literally denies their existence. There were Arabs and Persians, but the Palestinians are "a political tool to win territory from Israel," he claims.
Huckabee also uses the term Judea and Samaria for the West Bank. He calls the Jewish settlements there, which are illegal under international law, "communities". At the same time, he rejects the occupation, which is also illegal according to the latest ruling of the International Court of Justice.
"The most pro-Israeli American president"
Donald Trump's return to the White House has given the Israeli government a strong tailwind for its future plans. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also replacing his top diplomat in Washington - the new ambassador will be Yechiel Leiter. He himself lives in a settlement in the occupied West Bank and has long insisted on the annexation of parts of Judea and Samaria. Leiter is a former member of the "Jewish Defense League", which calls for the expulsion of Palestinians from "the Jewish homeland". The FBI defines it as an extremist organization that uses violence.
Trump, who in the election campaign presented himself as "the most pro-Israel president in US history", managed to change the long-standing positions in the country's Middle East policy during his first term. He moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognized the eastern part of the city, occupied in 1967, as Israeli territory, as well as the Golan Heights, which were also annexed in violation of international law in 1981. Under Trump, the so-called Abraham Accords were reached, through which Israel normalized its diplomatic relations with other countries in the region.
As a final important piece of the puzzle, Trump may want to achieve a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Trump is ideologically close to Netanyahu - he would only like the offensives in Gaza and Lebanon to end more quickly.
First steps towards annexation
It is still unclear what the specifics of a possible annexation of the West Bank would look like. Plans suspended in 2020 to declare the entire Jordan Valley part of Israeli territory could be revived. Netanyahu campaigned for the right-wing with this sweeping proposal - at times with Trump's approval - but ultimately abandoned the plans during the negotiations on the aforementioned Abraham Accords. Finance Minister Smotrich has reportedly already instructed the Department of Settlement Policy at the Defense Ministry, as well as the civil administration, to prepare for annexation next year.
The German ambassador to Tel Aviv, Steffen Seibert, warned that this threatens the stability of the region: "Any preparation for such a goal clearly violates international law," he stressed. Both the German government and the US continue to officially advocate a two-state solution. Netanyahu, however, has long opposed any steps aimed at recognizing a Palestinian state - especially after the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 2023.
Lack of prospects for the Palestinians
It is completely unclear what the annexation of parts of the West Bank would mean for the Palestinians living there. Israel's right-wing religious government will certainly not grant them full citizenship.
The head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation office Engelkes sees the possible consequences of a possible annexation as follows: "Palestinian towns and villages would remain isolated enclaves, effectively islands of self-rule, surrounded by Israeli territory. This would likely mean even greater restrictions on the movement of Palestinians and would ultimately make a two-state solution impossible."
Trump's nominee for ambassador Huckabee has already spoken out several times in favor of the full annexation of the current Palestinian territories to Israel. According to him, a Palestinian state should be based on the territory of a neighboring Muslim state.
Trump's position cannot be predicted
Whether Donald Trump will agree to these plans is unclear. A large-scale annexation could anger Arab regional powers and thwart an extension of the Abraham Accords, which would be a major setback for Trump, says Thomas Warrick of the Washington-based Atlantic Council.
Neil Quilliam of Chatham House in London also points to the Abraham Accords, along with ending the war against the terrorist organizations Hamas and Hezbollah, as a key policy goal for Trump's second term. "He wants to increase the number of countries that have normalized relations with Israel, including Saudi Arabia. But Riyadh will not take such a step until Trump makes a long-term commitment to the creation of a Palestinian state," he added.
Author: David El