The transit of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine stops today at 8:00 Moscow time due to the expiration of the contract. Thus, the only source of Russian gas for Europeans may remain Balkan Stream, as the European market will lose approximately 15 billion cubic meters of gas.
The agreement between "Gazprom" and the Ukrainian company "Naftogaz" for the transportation of natural gas through Ukrainian territory was concluded on December 30, 2019 and expired five years later - on the last day of 2024. The Ukrainian authorities have already repeatedly stated that they do not plan to extend the agreement.
Last year, Gazprom delivered about 15.5 billion cubic meters along this route, which amounts to approximately 4.5% of the EU's total consumption. Through it, Russian gas reached Moldova and four EU countries: Slovakia, Austria, Italy and the Czech Republic. Ukrainian transit dominates gas supplies to Austria, Slovakia and Moldova.
The only source of Russian pipeline gas for Europeans without transit will remain Balkan Stream, which receives gas from TurkStream. Each year, the facility supplies approximately 14-15 billion cubic meters to Romania, Greece, North Macedonia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Hungary.
Part of the Russian gas that passes through Ukraine can be redirected to the Turkish route, experts note - up to 1-2 billion cubic meters per year, thus Slovakia and Austria will be able to supply themselves with fuel.
Experts have warned that stopping the transit will lead to an increase in gas prices and local imbalances in the gas market in Europe.
European countries can continue to receive transit gas through Ukraine without a new agreement between Moscow and Kiev. The most reasonable scheme seems to be the one that provides for the transfer of property rights to the gas at the border of the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The pumping itself will take place within the framework of tenders in which European companies will participate. Deliveries in such a reduced volume could reach 4-7 billion cubic meters per year.