Richard Kemp: Vladimir Putin lost the war shamefully, but the West is about to reward him with Ukrainian territory

In recent months, public opinion has been dominated by pessimism about Ukraine's prospects in the war. In reality it is Russia that is losing the war, and in 2025 this will become even more obvious. This opinion is expressed by Colonel Richard Kemp, a retired British army officer and military observer for The Telegraph.

He is convinced that the overall situation in the war shows “shameful failure“ of the Russian president, who has not only failed to conquer a much smaller neighbor, but has also inflicted enormous losses on his own country, undermining its economy, prestige and strategic influence around the world.

Kemp stressed that despite the common narrative of a relentless Russian offensive, Russia has actually made very limited territorial gains over the past year and has not even managed to conquer the entire Donetsk region. The grandiose offensive to create a buffer zone in the Kharkiv region, touted by Putin himself, has been reduced to controlling a small section of territory along the border. The missile attacks aimed at plunging Ukraine into almost constant cold and darkness have "obviously failed", Kemp claims.

And this is happening against the backdrop of the loss of part of the Kursk region, the constant drone strikes on Russia itself, which the Russian army is unable to stop, and the expulsion of the Russian fleet from most of the Black Sea, UNIAN adds.

Richard Kemp also points to the enormous human (427,000 killed and wounded in the last year) and economic losses for Russia. Russia is already spending 6% of its budget on payments to the wounded and families of the dead. Interest rates on loans have reached a sky-high 23%, and inflation is conservatively estimated at 9%.

The military analyst also recalls Russia's geopolitical catastrophe in Syria, which has undermined trust in Moscow among other countries in the region, including Iran. And Russia itself is becoming increasingly dependent on China due to Western sanctions.

At the same time, Kemp admits that Ukraine is far from victorious, despite all the problems of the Russians. The analyst blames this on the indecision of the West, which, fearing escalation, has not provided Ukraine with enough weapons. The analyst is also concerned about the fact that the West is currently pressuring Ukraine to make territorial concessions to Russia. Kemp emphasizes that although Putin considers himself almost a winner, his position may change if the Russian economy continues to show problems and Trump plays hardball.

"For now, we need to get rid of the idea that Putin “won“ the war. It was a colossal failure. The tragedy is that the West may be about to reward Putin with enough territory to allow him to claim the opposite, turning defeat into victory," sums up Richard Kemp.