World War III in 2025? 2024 promises to leave a dangerous legacy for its successor. The world has not witnessed a more dangerous international environment in decades, with unresolved, ongoing conflicts in some of the world's most critical regions. It will take shrewd, mature statesmanship to avoid even greater conflict in 2025, but the situation we find ourselves in shows that shrewd statesmanship is in short supply. This is what Dr. Robert Furley, an American professor of defense affairs, writes for 19fortyfive.com Nobody wants another global conflict, but in some ways we are already in a potential World War III. The Russia-Ukraine war, one of the largest conventional conflicts the world has seen since World War II, has far-reaching global consequences. They will certainly affect those parts of the world where Russia, China, the European Union, and the United States have interests, which is essentially the entire international system. None of the conflicts discussed here is isolated from the others; like the various theaters of World War II, each has an effect on the balance of power and threats in other regions.
Russia - Ukraine
We are three months away from the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the end of the war is still difficult to predict. Russian forces have renewed their offensive and have seized significant parts of Ukrainian territory, but apparently not enough to threaten the integrity of the Ukrainian state. For their part, Ukraine has taken advantage of the authorization of the Biden administration and its supporters in Europe to launch long-range strikes against targets deep inside Russia. Russia responded by launching its first operational missile attack on Ukraine using multiple-warhead conventional missiles. Tensions between Russia and the West (including the United States and the European Union) remain at an all-time high. The Russian economy is showing signs of serious deterioration, which could force Moscow to conduct costly and high-risk military operations. In other words, the worst war the world has seen in decades could yet escalate and draw other countries into its clutches.
The October 7 Attacks
The fallout from the dramatic and deadly attacks of October 7, 2023, continues to destabilize the Middle East. The attacks sparked intense fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, followed by intense conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Along the way, Israel and Iran traded blows, and the Houthi movement in western Yemen launched a campaign against shipping in the Red Sea. Some theaters of conflict appear to be cooling, with Israel and Hezbollah reaching an uneasy truce and the Israeli military exhausting its targets in Gaza. The prospect of escalation between Iran and Israel, however, remains dangerously high. Iran’s relations with Russia have improved dramatically over the course of the conflict, as Tehran has supplied Moscow with much-needed drones and missiles in exchange for advanced military technology. Iran may also decide that, having failed to deter Israeli attacks, it must go all-in on its nuclear program. Such a decision would invite new Israeli attacks, potentially backed by the United States and the Gulf monarchies.
China-Taiwan: The Road to World War III?
In some ways, the silence that continues to reign over the Taiwan Strait is more ominous than the chaotic symphony of the Russo-Ukrainian war. The political conflict is essentially intractable, and the belligerents are preparing for war as if it were inevitable. China continues to rapidly expand its navy, particularly its amphibious assault capabilities. Taiwan and the United States are working on systems and tactics that would make it impossible for the People's Liberation Army to hold a bridgehead. At the same time, trade continues almost unchecked across the straits. It is unlikely that China will be ready to attack Taiwan in 2025. However, China's calculations could change if events in other parts of the world turn around or if President Trump takes steps to dramatically worsen relations between Washington and Beijing. Any war for control of Taiwan would likely expand to include the United States and Japan and would immediately carry the threat of nuclear weapons.
North Korea - South Korea
Pyongyang’s decision to intervene directly in the war between Russia and Ukraine has shaken the always tense relations on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea’s involvement in the war appears to guarantee a quid pro quo from Moscow, providing the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) with the patron it has been seeking since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The overall effect of Russian support for North Korea remains uncertain, but it will undoubtedly help strengthen the DPRK’s energy situation and make it easier for Pyongyang to acquire advanced military technology. It could also make North Korea more adventurous in its relations with the Republic of Korea (ROK). For its part, South Korea is considering expanding its relations with Ukraine in response to the deployment of North Korean troops. In addition, South Korea’s domestic politics have been shaken by an apparent coup attempt, in which President Yun Suk-yeol cited the threat from North Korea as justification for imposing martial law. The eventual consequences of these decisions are impossible to predict, but they could pose a significant threat to the crisis-ridden stability of the peninsula.
Syria
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has made an effort to stay out of the October 7 attacks, even as Israeli jets and missiles have been hitting Iranian facilities in Syria. His reluctance may be based on concerns about the stability of his regime. These concerns were dramatically confirmed last week when the city of Aleppo fell to a coalition of rebel groups. This has left the Syrian Arab Army and its Russian and Iranian allies scrambling to build a defense against the advancing rebel forces. The rebels themselves are a patchwork of different groups, each with their own supporters and agenda. The Syrian civil war engulfed much of the region at its height in 2010, and it is not difficult to see Russia, Turkey, Israel, Iran, Jordan, and the United States all getting involved in some way. If Assad’s government were to fall, either by internal or external forces, the entire region could be thrown into chaos that could reignite the conflict between Israel and Iran and draw Turkey into direct military action.
World War III: Could it start in 2025?
We can take comfort in the fact that wars rarely happen by chance. No one really wants World War III. Each major player has a specific set of goals and outcomes they would like to pursue, and overthrowing the global system or imposing it by force is outside of those goals. Yet it is often difficult for leaders to understand the global impact of their decisions; a bomb dropped over Kiev could trigger a thunderstorm in Tehran or a cyclone over Taipei. We can hope that the New Year will bring a deep breath, a new perspective on these conflicts, and new hope for overcoming World War III.