If the United States does not send a lot of aid to Ukraine soon, it will lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months, writes the American magazine The Atlantic, according to which Donald Trump faces a catastrophic defeat in Ukraine.
The newly elected Vice President J.D. Vance once said that he does not care what happens to Ukraine. We will soon find out if the American people share his indifference. Ukraine faces a complete defeat, loss of sovereignty and total Russian control.
This creates an immediate problem for Donald Trump (who will soon take office as President of the United States). He promised to settle the war quickly upon taking office, but now he faces a harsh reality: Vladimir Putin has no interest in a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukraine a sovereign nation.
Trump must now choose between accepting a humiliating strategic defeat on the global stage and immediately doubling down on American support for Ukraine while there is still time. The choices he makes in the next few weeks will determine not only the fate of Ukraine but also the success of his presidency.
The end of an independent Ukraine is and has always been Putin’s goal. While foreign policy commentators theorize about what kind of deal Putin might accept, how much territory he might demand, what security guarantees, demilitarized zones, and so on, Putin himself has never shown any interest in anything less than the complete surrender of Ukraine.
Putin’s original goal was to decapitate the government in Kiev, replace it with a government subordinate to Moscow, and through that government control the entire country. Today, after almost three years of full-scale war, Putin’s goals have not changed: he wants everything.
Putin’s stated terms have been consistent throughout the war: a change of government in Kiev in favor of a pro-Russian regime; “denazification,” his favorite euphemism for the destruction of Ukrainian nationalism; demilitarization, or leaving Ukraine without sufficient fighting power to defend against a new Russian attack; and “neutrality“, meaning no ties with Western organizations like NATO and the EU.
Putin has never agreed to the establishment of a demilitarized zone, foreign troops on Ukrainian soil, continued Ukrainian military relations with the West of any kind, or the survival of the government of Volodymyr Zelensky or any pro-Western government in Kiev.
Some argue that Putin will be more flexible once the talks begin. But this is based on the mistaken assumption that Putin needs a break from the fighting. Yes, the Russian economy is suffering. Yes, Russian losses on the front remain staggeringly high. Yes, Putin is short of manpower. But Putin believes that the Russians can endure their current hardships long enough to achieve victory.
Have American predictions about Russia's inability to withstand “crippling” sanctions? Western sanctions have forced Russians to adapt and adjust, to find workarounds.
Putin sees that time is working in his favor. Russian forces may begin to run out of military equipment in the fall of 2025, but by then Ukraine may already be close to collapse. Ukraine cannot sustain the war for another year without a new aid package from the United States. Ukrainian forces are already suffering from a shortage of soldiers, national exhaustion, and a collapse in morale. Russia’s casualty rate is higher than Ukraine’s, but Russians outnumber Ukrainians, and Putin has found a way to keep filling the ranks, including with foreign fighters.
Ukrainian morale is already deteriorating due to Russian missile and drone attacks and the continued uncertainty about whether the vital and indispensable support of the United States will continue. Putin believes he is winning. "The situation is changing dramatically," he said at a recent news conference. Putin sees victory in his hands today, more than at any time since the invasion began.
Russian troops are making steady progress - at a terrible price, but Putin is willing to pay it if the Russians will tolerate him, and he believes victory is within his grasp. Meanwhile, Ukraine's lifeline to the United States and the West has never been more threatened. The transatlantic alliance, once so united, is in disarray, and America's European allies are panicking that Trump will withdraw from NATO.
If Trump cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine, then not only will Ukraine collapse, but the divisions between the United States and its allies will deepen. Putin is closer to his goal of splitting the West than at any other time in his long reign.
Is this the time to expect Putin to negotiate a peace deal? A ceasefire would give Ukrainians time to catch their breath and rebuild their damaged infrastructure, as well as their damaged psyche. It would allow them to rearm without using up the weapons they already have.
Today, Putin has momentum on his side. If he wins in Ukraine, his loss in Syria will seem trivial. Putin’s goal is not an independent, albeit smaller, Ukraine, a neutral Ukraine, or even an autonomous Ukraine within the Russian sphere of influence. His goal is the end of Ukraine. This is not a new Russian goal; Putin sees Ukrainian nationalism itself as a historical threat. Putin’s call for “denazification” is not simply about removing Zelensky’s government, but an attempt to erase all traces of an independent Ukrainian political and cultural identity.
Ukraine, unless something changes, and soon. At this point, Putin has no incentive to make a deal that leaves even part of Ukraine intact and independent. Only the prospect of a dramatic, short-term change in his military posture could force Putin to take a more accommodating course. He must believe that time is not on his side, that Ukraine will not fall within 12 months: that instead it will be supplied and equipped to fight for as long as necessary, and that it can count on the continued support of the United States and its allies.
Which brings us to the newly elected US President Trump, who now finds himself trapped. When Trump said during his campaign that he could end the war in 24 hours, he probably believed what most observers believed: that Putin needed a break, that he was willing to offer peace in exchange for territory.
Trump’s fundamental mistake is compounded by the mythology of Trump as a strongman. No small part of Trump’s aura and political success is that many expect other world leaders to do his bidding. It’s dangerous to believe your own stupidity. Trump himself seemed to think that his election alone would be enough to convince Putin that it was time to make a deal.
Trump seems to think that something like friendship, high regard, or loyalty will make it easier to make deals. Does Trump really believe that Putin would be moved by such sentiments?
The thing Putin has feared most is direct U.S. and NATO involvement in the conflict. But the Biden administration has refused to even threaten direct involvement, both when it knew Putin’s war plans months in advance and after the initial invasion, when Putin’s troops were vulnerable.
To change Putin’s calculations, Trump will have to do exactly what he has been reluctant to do so far: he will have to immediately resume aid to the Ukrainians, in sufficient quantity and quality to change the trajectory of the battlefield.
Putin doesn’t care who the U.S. president is. His goal for more than two decades has been to weaken the United States and disrupt its global hegemony and leadership in the “liberal world order,” so that Russia can resume what he sees as its rightful place as a European great power and an empire with global influence.
Trump faces a paradox. America itself would not be as powerful without the alliances and open international economic and political system it built after World War II to protect its long-term interests. A Russian victory in Ukraine would not only threaten the immediate security of European states, but would also undermine the American-led security system on which they depend.
If Trump fails to support Ukraine, he faces the unpleasant prospect of suffering a major strategic defeat.