"The Syrian Democratic Forces must be disbanded," said Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are the Kurdish militia that controls much of northern Syria. Turkey views their presence on its border as a national security risk.
According to Ankara, their main faction - the People's Protection Units (YPG) - is part of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which the EU and the US designate as a terrorist organization. However, Washington draws a distinction between the People's Protection Units and the PKK. The YPG is still considered one of the most important allies of the United States.
SDF commander Mazloum Abdi has called on US President-elect Donald Trump to leave American troops in the region. About 10 years ago, the Kurds were the only force that successfully opposed the Islamic State terrorists.
The threat from the jihadists
Although the likelihood of a Turkish attack on the Kurdish militias is high, there is another immediate danger - currently, numerous supporters of the Islamic State (IS) are being held in prisons controlled by the Kurds. The fear is that a Turkish attack would allow the jihadists to go free.
Meanwhile, Turkey is trying to reassure the international community: It could take over the management of these prisons and prevent the release of Islamic State members. "In the event of a military operation, Turkey can administer these prisons within the framework of international law and continue to hold prisoners there," said Muhamet Celal Kul, a lawyer at Bolu University in Turkey.
Could the Islamic State return?
Although the terrorist group has been officially defeated since March 2019, Islamic State fighters are still armed and active. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, 108 civilians died in attacks by ISIS terrorists in 2024. In the past, ISIS members have also repeatedly tried to attack camps and prisons under Kurdish control.
Currently, more than 9,000 criminals from the terrorist group are being held in at least 20 prisons, explained Michael Kurila, commander of the US Central Command. More than half of the imprisoned Islamic State fighters are Syrians. They are followed by Iraqis. In addition, there are about 2,000 fighters from 58 countries in Islamic State prisons - nearly 800 of them from European countries. There are also camps where the wives and children of the fighters live - about 50,000 people. One of the most famous is Al-Hol - just two hours from Turkey.
The international community fears radicalization of people who, according to Amnesty International in 2016, are held in these camps "under inhumane conditions and against their will".
Nobody wants them back
So far, the countries of origin have not wanted to take back either the fighters or their wives and children. According to the non-governmental organization "Rights and Security" only 3,365 people have been returned so far.
If Turkey takes control of these camps and prisons, it could put a lot of pressure on countries of origin to take back their citizens, says Alison Bisset, a professor of international law at the University of Reading in the UK. "Until now, many countries have justified their decision not to take back their citizens by saying that the Syrian Democratic Forces are not a "sending state". If a country like Turkey then takes control of these facilities, it will be difficult for them to continue to use that justification," says Bisset.
The situation of children - most of whom are born as a result of rape or forced marriage - is particularly difficult. According to Save the Children, there are more than 6,000 children of various backgrounds living in the Al-Hol and Roj camps. Many of these children have no documentation to prove their nationality.
Is denationalization the answer?
Countries of origin have another option if the worst-case scenario comes up: denaturalization. "Many countries have laws that allow them to denaturalize their citizens if national security is at risk. But that would lead to serious human rights violations," says Bisset, adding: "The United Kingdom, for example, has already gone down that path." She cites the case of British-born Shamima Begum, who traveled to Syria via Turkey at the age of 15, married an Islamic State fighter, and then tried in vain to return home.
This should not become a routine practice, warns Tanya Mehra of the International Counter-Terrorism Center in The Hague. Countries are obligated under a UN treaty not to allow people to be displaced, Mehra says. She emphasizes that the camps in northern Syria also include people who do not have strong ties to the Islamic State or who are themselves victims of the terrorist militia.
Authors: Burak Yunveren | Muhammad Kafadar