If the US stops military aid to Ukraine, the consequences will be catastrophic for both Kiev and Washington itself. Elaine McCusker, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote about this in an article for The Hill.
Without US support, Ukraine will begin to lose territory faster, and due to the lack of weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russia will advance significantly in 2025. By 2026 Ukraine will be left without an effective air defense system, which will allow Russia to conduct continuous large-scale bombing, the analyst believes.
"Ukraine's conventional forces will continue to fight valiantly, but will likely collapse by the end of the same year, allowing Russia to capture Kiev and then move closer to NATO's border," McCusker writes.
According to the analyst, Russia will then use the captured Ukrainian resources to rebuild its army, which will be deployed along the border with NATO countries. McCusker suggests that by 2030 Russia will be ready to attack other countries.
At the same time, the expert once again emphasizes that the consequences of this seemingly distant European conflict will be felt by the Americans themselves if Ukraine falls.
She recalled that earlier experts had calculated the additional costs that the United States would have to incur in the event of Ukraine's defeat in the war. In general, America would have to spend an additional over $800 billion, which is seven times more than all the aid provided by the Pentagon to Ukraine since 2022.
"Washington will need a large, capable, and operational military, deployed in more places.
To deter or, if necessary, defeat Russia, the U.S. military will need 14 new brigade combat groups, 18 additional warships, 8 additional Marine infantry battalions, 555 additional Air Force aircraft, and 266,000 personnel," she warns.
However, McCusker emphasizes that a Ukrainian victory would mean Russia retreating back to its own borders with a weakened military and economy, as well as a host of internal problems. And it is in such a scenario that the United States would be able to reduce its spending on troops in Europe and focus on the Pacific.