January 29, 2025 will be remembered: The CDU and CSU, the largest opposition faction in the Bundestag at the moment, submitted a five-point plan to tighten refugee policy. The Social Democrats and the Greens, who now form a minority government, voted against it, and the Left Party voted "against" with them. The conservatives alone would not have been able to achieve a majority for their project.
However, this was made possible thanks to the votes of the partly right-wing extremist "Alternative for Germany" (AfD). Friedrich Merz, the conservatives' candidate for chancellor, has accepted the support of the AfD. There is no information yet on what the citizens think of this. But not least after the knife attack in Aschaffenburg, the Germans support profound changes in migration policy. 68 percent believe that Germany should accept fewer refugees.
22 percent of those surveyed in the regular survey commissioned by the ARD are of the opinion that the acceptance of refugees should continue on the same large scale as before, and three percent can even imagine Germany accepting more refugees. The representative survey was conducted among 1,336 Germans with the right to vote.
Border control and rejection of asylum seekers?
The CDU/CSU plan calls for, among other things, "permanent border control" with neighboring countries and "interception, without exception, of all attempts to illegally enter" the country. This should also apply to asylum seekers. Although it was adopted by the Bundestag, the draft is not legally binding, but is only a political declaration of intent. However, the majority of Germans, as the survey also shows, approve of the conservatives' demands.
67 percent believe that permanent border controls are the right step. 57 percent are "in favor" of people without valid documents being denied entry to Germany in principle - including when they intend to apply for asylum.
Do the conservatives' demands violate European law?
It is not clear whether these measures are in accordance with European law or violate it. At a meeting of EU interior ministers in Warsaw, criticism has already been made. The principle of open borders applies within the Schengen area. In order to reduce illegal entry into Germany, the federal police have been carrying out checks at all borders since last autumn, with the measure valid until March 2025.
Luxembourg has announced that it will file a complaint with the EC if Germany wants to extend the period of checks. Spain has also criticized - the borders in the Schengen area should remain open.
Despite the border checks, however, according to the ARD survey, only a minority of respondents believe that Germany is doing a good job on the issue of refugees. Barely one in ten believe that the authorities are fulfilling their obligations in this regard.
Interior Minister Nancy Feser assured her EU colleagues that Germany will continue to rely on pan-European solutions. "For us, the top priority remains the fastest possible implementation of the EU's common migration pact," she said in Warsaw. The minister also called for a pan-European approach to deportations. "An effective return system at European level is a must", emphasized Feser.
Most Germans share the same opinion: 61 percent are in favor of joint European solutions in refugee policy. Only among AfD supporters are there more supporters of an independent, national approach.
The mood in Germany is not good
Overall, three weeks before the early elections for the Bundestag, the mood of citizens is decidedly negative. For 83 percent, the current state of affairs in Germany is a cause for concern, while only 13 percent see reasons for confidence.
In addition to migration, German voters are also worried about the economic situation. Over a quarter of respondents mentioned both topics, 20 percent are concerned about military clashes and conflicts in the world, and 18 percent are concerned about a possible social shift to the right.
Every fourth person believes that none of the parties in Germany gives reason for optimism. The CDU/CSU, which is leading in the polls, is trusted by only 23 percent of voters in the country, and Friedrich Merz as a candidate for chancellor - 21 percent.
If the election were held this Sunday, the conservatives would receive 30 percent of the vote. The Social Democrats have 15 percent support, and the Greens would receive the same. The "Alternative for Germany" has 20 percent approval, the Left Party has five. It is not certain that the Free Democrats and the "Sarah Wagenknecht Union" will overcome the five percent barrier.
Only half of voters have already made up their minds
There is still a possibility of swings before the election on February 23 - as only half of voters have already decided who they will vote for. 21 percent say their party preferences could change by election day. Around a quarter either will not vote or are not leaning towards any party yet.
Author: Sabine Kinkarz