When asked whether he thinks the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip will be permanent, Donald Trump did not respond with particular optimism. According to him, there are no guarantees of that.
He is definitely sending a signal today - the American president will welcome Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House. Netanyahu sees this as a demonstration of his close relationship with Donald Trump. How close are they really?
Far from "best friends"
"I don't think they are best friends”, says Dennis Ross, a Middle East expert and former diplomat who worked in the administrations of Presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, to ARD. He notes that during Trump's first term, he and Netanyahu had some disagreements.
According to Ross, this is a purely working relationship. "Netanyahu understands that it is not in his interest to say "no" to Trump," the expert commented. Even before taking office, the new American president put pressure on Netanyahu, Ross told the German public-law media. "There is no doubt about it. After all, the agreement was worked out back in May, and nothing changed during Joe Biden's time." It was only when Trump made threats after winning the election and his envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to the Middle East that the deal was concluded. According to the expert, there is no doubt that Trump's role is key to the agreement.
Trump wants Israel to get closer to Saudi Arabia
Now, Washington's main goal is to prepare for the second phase of the ceasefire agreement. It should be extended for another six weeks and all surviving hostages should be released, and the Israeli army should withdraw from the enclave.
From Trump's perspective, this is a condition for achieving his main goal: rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. "He wants an agreement to be concluded to normalize relations between the two countries. That is his top priority", Ross told ARD. According to him, however, Trump will only be able to achieve this goal if he gives the Palestinians something. Maybe not everything they want, but some gesture is necessary, the former diplomat believes. According to him, this puts at stake another of the long-term goals of the American president - new negotiations with Iran.
Trump inherited a promising situation in the Middle East
Dennis Ross believes that Trump has a great chance of achieving something like a new beginning in the region. "He inherited a situation in the Middle East that creates serious opportunities”, says the expert. The reasons: Hezbollah in Lebanon has been significantly weakened, the Assad regime in Syria has fallen, and Iran is also in a weak position. However, Israel's military successes remain tactical. The question is whether they can be used to achieve strategic change, asks Ross.
In order to talk about any serious change, the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip must not fall apart. When Netanyahu leaves Washington, he will face many important questions: what is Israel's position on the agreed ceasefire and hostage release deal, and what are the real prospects for implementing a second phase of the agreement.
Author: Ralf Borchardt (ARD)